I’ve never really liked the idea of a championship “window.”

Cursory DuckDuckGoing suggests that the idea of a window of opportunity comes from NASA’s rocket launch windows. A window defines an opening in a wall the way that a launch window describes the range of when you can actually, uh, launch something. The USA military later co-opted the phrase to describe potential periods of advantageous attack during the Cold War (what a light-hearted rabbit hole we’ve gone down!).

In sports, I suppose people like it because slamming a window shut is a powerful image. But unless you’re a cat burglar or frequently locked out of your own home, you don’t really climb through windows very often. I open a window for some fresh air, not to clamber into a championship. I don’t know; it always felt a little half-baked. Why isn’t it the door of opportunity? Or a gate? The gate of opportunity makes more sense. A team’s championship gate. When it’s open, you can stroll on through into the promised land; when it’s shut, you’re locked out of the party. Let that roll around the brain a little, see how we feel.

I’m rambling here to avoid the unpleasantness ahead, but let’s stop beating around the bush. Whatever means of separating inside from outside you prefer crept much closer to shutting Sunday night after Jalen Williams suffered a horrific leg injury. I’ve never seen onlookers wave for a stretcher so fast before; a thoughtful someone tried to cover his ankle with a towel, but it wasn’t quick enough.

They didn’t show the replay on TV, but if your feed is exclusively NBA-driven like mine, you can’t avoid it. Williams’ reaction to seeing his leg twisted around like an owl’s head is wild — he stares at it, then covers his own mouth with his hands, like he didn’t realize on impact how bad his own injury actually was.

The players' reactions on the court told the whole story. At least one teammate was crying; opponents were putting hands on their heads or over their mouths.

We don’t have an official diagnosis as of this writing, and it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that he’ll return this season. Bodies are weird. But it is hard to watch what happened and think we’ll see Williams anytime soon.

On a human level, it’s awful. We will never see the problems Williams has every day, particularly in the first few weeks, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t real. The taken-for-granted things any person who undergoes a traumatic injury struggles with. Changing clothes. Sleeping. Using the bathroom. Simply getting into bed, or out of it. It’s all hard to do when a body part has been smashed into a shape bodies aren’t supposed to be in.

For Williams, who missed much of last season and never reached 100%, this marks a second straight year in injury hell. I hope he fully recovers and picks up where he left off.

For the Thunder as a whole, that won’t be possible. OKC had been the most impressive team of the season so far, putting down San Antonio and Denver in rapid succession with little fuss. This terrible injury changes everything.

It probably won’t matter too much in the regular season. The Thunder started last year 24-1 without Williams, after all, and they have plenty of experience playing at a high level without him. Players like Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain can pick up the scoring burden without stuttering on the beat.

But there will be changes. Despite starting two seven-footers, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are now really small across their rotation. Jalen Williams was the only traditional small forward in the rotation; now that spot will be filled by, I don’t know, Cason Wallace, playing down a spot to make room for Ajay Mitchell in the starting lineup?

Without Williams’ tactical-knife defense, it becomes much harder to play Chet Holmgren at center. Without Williams’ physicality, the Thunder suddenly become a little more susceptible to superstar wings. Without Williams’ all-around game, the Thunder are far more vulnerable to further injury. The Clippers game decimated the roster; Wallace (shoulder) and Jaylin Williams (wrist) also left and did not return, although the severity of either injury is currently unknown.

That’s a lot of depth suddenly dinged up or out indefinitely. This is how dreams die and gates close; not with a bang, but with a steady stream of injuries.

The Thunder could — and probably will! — sleepwalk to 60 wins. But this isn’t about regular season dominance. Will GM Sam Presti feel the need to make a move?

The team’s stuffed cap sheet complicates any Oklahoma City trade, but the Thunder still have a solid shelf of draft assets to dangle (though it’s not as deep as it used to be). In the 2027 draft alone, they have a potential swap with the now-hated Clippers, Denver’s first (protected 1-5), and a top-16-protected Spurs first. That LAC swap could be a juicy trade piece. After that, their only extra picks (outside of their own) are a 2028 Dallas swap and a top-five protected pick from Denver in 2029. They also have plenty of second-rounders.

I’m not suggesting that the Thunder will or should trade Jalen Williams; I don’t think the organization rolls like that. But would they package together some of their draft assets and bench salaries to land an impactful wing? They’ll ask around, particularly if any of the team’s issues seem worse than expected before the February trade deadline.

The Thunder could still win a championship as-is. But they were (in my eyes) heavy favorites 24 hours ago. Without Williams, they’re just one of several contenders, and you’d certainly take the field over them.

Looking forward, the SGA super-duper 35% max kicks in next year at nearly $62 million. Cason Wallace jumps from a $7 million salary now to $23 million then. Williams and Holmgren make $90 million between them in 2027-28. Isaiah Hartenstein is on the books for exactly $25 million. Alex Caruso somehow has two more years left after this one at 12% of the salary cap, or ~$21 million.

Those half-dozen players alone count for ~125% of the projected cap, or a couple million below the first apron. If you think the Thunder are carrying all six of those players into next season, I’ve got a nice oceanfront villa in Oklahoma City to sell ya. This is the last year we’ll see this core together, and now, we won’t see it complete.

Does that constitute a shutting of the gate? Not entirely. The Thunder are deep, so deep that we don’t even really know what half their guys can do. As long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays like SGA, they’ll be the favorites on any given night. The roster still has plenty of two-way firepower.

But you have to turn sideways and suck in your stomach to slip through the gate now. I’m no oddsmaker, but what felt like a juggernautian dynasty just two seasons ago now looks likely as not to exit the Shai era without another title. It’s starting to feel inevitable. Just ask the Bucks, Celtics, or Nuggets (among others) about building a multi-time champion in the modern era.

If you want the faintest of silver linings, we might see a little more of some of the Thunder’s deep-bench players like Bennett Stirtz and Brooks Barnhizer. Ajay Mitchell is always ready to score more, and he’ll happily take on a greater offensive load with a whistle and a smile.

Yeah. That’s all I got.

Injuries are the worst part of any sport, but teams and fans can't do much about them except move forward. I promise I’ll write about some fun early-season storylines soon (Ty Jerome, you’re on deck!), but I just couldn’t find the enthusiasm for it this morning.

Best wishes, Jalen Williams. I hope to see you out on the court again soon.

It’s a stark contrast to last season, which opened with the Terry Rozier/Chauncey Billups arrests, the Kawhi/Clippers/Aspiration scandal hanging over everything, and a huge number of injuries to star players.

This year, we’re starting out far healthier and with fewer off-court distractions. I like it better this way!

I’ve watched a good chunk of every game so far (yes, even Raptors-Bulls), and unsurprisingly, I have Some Thoughts. It’s only been one game, so take every observation or stat with a dump truck full of salt. We’re not making sweeping declarations here. But you’d always rather start the season strong than weak, right?

Let’s start this column off the same way.

Atlanta Hawks: After one game, Nickeil-Alexander Walker looks like he hasn’t missed a beat from last season, dropping 31 very impressive points on a feisty Orlando Magic team. This was one of the best opening-night games, a tight affair between two teams that want to be in the playoffs. The reigning MIP looked like he leveled up even further in the offseason.

Boston Celtics: Aye, caramba. The Celtics blew another huge lead despite Paul George’s 38 points. Brad Stevens said in the offseason that they wanted to apply more rim pressure, but then Boston traded its only layup-generator in Jaylen Brown. Fewer than 17% of Boston’s field goal attempts came at the rim — last year, the C’s were last in the league at just a 23.3% share. To be fair, the Pistons are an excellent defensive team. But Boston looked like they are bringing more of the same, for better and worse.

Brooklyn Nets: Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr. stuffed the stat sheet, but the five sophomores on the roster had a tough start. Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, and Danny Wolf combined for three DNP-CDs, while Nolan Traoré and Egor Dëmin (whom I have high hopes for this season) combined for just two field goals out of 14 attempts.

C’mon, Dëmin! I have faith in you!

Charlotte Hornets: In my offseason podcast for Hardwood Knocks, I suggested the Hornets’ biggest breakout player might not be Brandon Miller, Coby White, or Kon Knueppel (and that was before White and Knueppel went down with injuries).

Instead, I predicted Naz Reid would make a huge impact, given his unquestioned starting role and a system built to highlight his strengths as a three-point shooter and face-up driver. Against Brooklyn, he led the Hornets’ starters in scoring, nabbed 11 rebounds, and, most surprisingly, tied his career high with seven assists.

More of this, please:

(Sidenote: I was not super encouraged about Brandon Miller’s start as Charlotte’s alpha ballhandler. His splits without LaMelo Ball were ghastly last season, and he made little impact even against Brooklyn’s inexperienced, poor-defending backcourt.)

Chicago Bulls: The offseason hype around Caleb Wilson is legit… but he’s also a raw rookie. The Raptors forced Chicago into a whopping 27 turnovers, including nine by Wilson. Toronto has an elite defense, but Wilson continuously dribbled himself into a box. Where was he going here?

Wilson notched a whopping 21 field goal attempts (with zero assists) while the next-highest Bull only had 10. The tunnel vision was evident. Compounding his struggles, Wilson also went just 1-for-8 from deep.

His day can be best summed up by a play in which he stole the ball from Jamal Shead… only for Shead to re-steal it on the fast break.

Wilson will improve as the season goes, but this was a wake-up call that the regular season is a far cry from the preseason.

Cleveland Cavaliers: When it went right, it went so right. When it went wrong, it went so wrong. That’s how you build a 29-point lead, and that’s how you blow one.

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This is the last poetry I'll foist upon you until next season. Eastern Conference haikus (and an explanation for why the heck I do this every season) can be found here.

In no particular order:

Denver Nuggets

Sisyphus, task grows
Every year, a bigger rock
The toil, sigh, the toil

Key Question: What does the DeMar DeRozan experience look like?

The Nuggets keep getting just a little bit worse around Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray.

Any hope for a change this year depends on DeMar DeRozan finding a way to integrate into a good team for the first time since the late 2010s1. His old-school midrange magic still draws fouls and wets buckets. There are thousands of these clips:

The Nuggets will desperately want him to steady bench units, but that's only ~15 minutes per night. He’s indisputably a weird fit next to Jokić and Murray. Weird isn’t always bad! DeRozan will need to find a way to work offensively and survive defensively when he’s playing with the big boys. Denver’s season depends on it.

Utah Jazz

Seat belts, everyone
Prepare for takeoff. Landing?
Don’t worry ‘bout that

Key Question: Can Will Hardy coach a mediocre defense?

The Jazz will make it rain. A torrential downpour of points. I’m not entirely sure how the offense will be split between a bunch of high-powered scorers like Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Brice Sensabaugh, etc., but I have no doubt they’ll be prolific.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but I’m worried about the other end. Even when Utah had Walker Kessler on the floor in 2024-25 (the last time he played meaningful minutes), they were somehow in the 18th percentile defensively. Now, not only do they lack Kessler, but they also won’t have Jusuf Nurkić for at least a month.

Maybe it doesn’t matter. Utah will play competitive games for the first time in eons; that step forward is important. But if the Jazz want to fight for home-court advantage in 2027-28 and beyond, they need to build real defensive structure now and lay the groundwork for future success.

JJ Redick and Charles Lee are notable examples of recent coaches who have crafted perfectly acceptable defenses out of average-to-bad parts. Let’s see if Hardy can live up to his rep.

San Antonio Spurs

Know that Hydra meme?
With one goofy head of three?
That might be the Spurs

Key Question: Will their three-headed monster work?

I have no questions about Wembanyama. He’s awesome, and many people think he’s already the best player in the league even if he doesn’t improve (which he will).

Similarly, I have no questions about the support staff. Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie are two of the league's best role players (and I wonder if that isn’t a little insulting to Vassell). Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, and Tobias Harris are savvy, confident vets who know their role. The Spurs even have a potential wild card in Carter Bryant, a betentacled Lovecraftian nightmare who wasn’t quite ready for primetime last season but could feature heavily this year.

No, my questions revolve around the guards. Coach Mitch Johnson has said Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and De’Aaron Fox will all start together, at least at first. There are a few ways to read this:

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Inflict actual poetry upon them.

Longtime readers know that the name “Basketball Poetry” isn’t an elevated opinion of my own prose or a snappier way of comparing basketball to poetry. No, this blog’s origins date back to Facebook wall posts I made over a decade ago with a season-preview haiku for every team—something I’ve never stopped doing.

Is this a time-honored tradition that everyone loves? No, based on my clicks and views, everyone actually hates it! But tradition is tradition, damn it, and I feel an urge to stick it to AI by writing 30 really bad, entirely too human verses. I encourage you to leave your own in the comments!

To add a little more heft, I also discuss a key question every team faces. Western Conference “poems” will come out before tip-off next week. I promise no more poetry after this1, so please don’t unsubscribe.

The regular season is days away, folks. Rejoice. Now, presented in no particular order:

Philadelphia 76ers

One ball, one ball, will
be the cry, while the Sixers
pass opponents by

Key Question: What is this team’s defensive ceiling?

Remarkably, the 76ers were already a bottom-six transition defense before adding Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. Let’s assume they’ll be at least that bad again, though VJ Edgecombe, Tyrese Maxey, and James will have a handful of spectacular chasedown blocks each.

But how many stops can Philly get in the halfcourt? A lot depends on how well Joel Embiid is moving. At this point, it’s safer to assume “not well.” Embiid's season-long numbers last year were surprisingly solid (77th percentile in D-EPM), but they hide how vulnerable he became for long stretches at the end of the season.

Edgecombe should be good, Maxey is much improved, and Jaylen Brown at least has certain defensive strengths. Transition woes aside, James isn’t the defensive mincemeat the Internet would have you believe. I wonder if coach Nick Nurse has the cojones to bench any of his starting five for defensive maestro Dean Wade, who may well need to close some games.

Detroit Pistons

The hunting dog dreams
hind legs kicking, chasing prey
Redemption ready.

Key Question: How much better are Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren?

Thompson and Duren will make $355 million over the next five years, approximately 37% of the salary cap starting from 2027-28. With Cade Cunningham eating up ~30% himself (the fair going rate for an All-NBA First-Teamer), the two newly rich men have some proving to do.

Neither seems likely to develop a workable three-pointer anytime soon, which means they need to be damn good at nearly everything else. Thompson’s defense is incredible, but he can be even better if he cuts out one avoidable foul per game. He also needs to be more dynamic with the ball in his hands. Maybe five players in the league have his superhero athleticism, but he can’t apply it without further developing his handle and court vision.

Duren improved greatly on defense last season, but that only brought him up to so-so overall. I think he’s a pretty good passer, but it rarely shows up in the box score; maybe he’s missing opportunities, and maybe coach JB Bickerstaff can use him for more than just finishing plays.

I have high hopes for the Pistons, but they need internal improvement from a young, now highly compensated core to surpass last season’s playoff disappointment. Detroit’s main trio will never be the smoothest on-court fit, but they can still succeed, even in the revealing confines of the postseason.

Last year showed them just how high the mountaintop is; this season will prove whether the climb is too steep.

Charlotte Hornets

Layups? Nah, just threes
Rebounding? Yeah! Kick out, three
Defense? Nah, just threes

Key Question: Do they have an All-Star?

If the Hornets want to move past the highs and lows of the LaMelo Ball experience and secure an actual playoff berth, one of Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, or Coby White will have to make an All-Star team.

Given that all three have recently dealt with or are currently dealing with health issues, we’re off to a great start!

Unlike the Boston Celtics, who lean on an overwhelming amount of threes because of Mazzulla’s dogmatic belief in the math, the Hornets will be firing away because they simply don’t have many guys who can consistently get two feet into the paint.

Coby White can, to a degree, and Naz Reid will when he wants to, but neither Brandon Miller nor Kon Knueppel have consistently generated shots at the rim in their short careers.

Few non-point-guard perimeter players have become All-Stars solely as jump-shooters. At some point, to take that next leap, you must be able to beat your man one-on-one. If Charlotte is to exceed my expectations, it’s because Miller, Knueppel, or even White does so to a degree we haven’t yet seen.

Toronto Raptors

Excavating past
Is Kawhi a fossil, or
apex predator

Key Question: What is the offense’s ceiling?

Forgive me for cheating, but let me quote myself for the main gist of this:

Kawhi Leonard has been in the 90th percentile or above in offensive on/off in six of the last seven years (and he was still well above average in the one year he wasn’t). The Raptors are returning all their most important pieces except Ingram (on whom Leonard is a comprehensive upgrade), and already, last year they somehow eked out the league’s 13th-best rating. Even more surprisingly, this wasn’t caveman ball — they were 10th in halfcourt first-shot rating and ran like all hell to avoid the halfcourt in the first place.

Coach Darko Rajaković didn’t get enough credit last season for implementing a motion-heavy, quick-hitting offense that leaned into Scottie Barnes’ strengths as a creator:

Few coaches have the luxury of using their power forward to initiate (and reject) the Spain pick-and-roll set we see above; kudos to Darko for taking advantage.

While Kawhi was the number-one story this offseason, Barnes’ mindset growth is the thing to watch. He passed too much last season. Will he be the aggressive, take-no-prisoners star we saw outshining James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, and Evan Mobley in last year’s playoffs? Or will he recede into the often exhilarating but ultimately disappointing pass-first role that leads too often to passivity? We’ll find out soon.

Indiana Pacers

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“You have this conversation with so many people, and they all say the same stuff,” said Dave Bradley, who worked with James as part of Duke’s marketing team. It’s true. I interviewed several people for this story, and everyone around James used identical, glowing descriptors.

“Humble.” “Winning player.” “Leader.” “Terrible trash-talker.” (We’ll get to that, I promise.)

It doesn’t take long before you’re side-eyeing the Kool-Aid. “People should watch out for him becoming President of the United States one day. He’s a thorough human being,” says Sandy Ryan, friend and former Tulane teammate.

The evidence is overwhelming. Everyone lights up like a Fourth of July sky when discussing James, overjoyed to share anecdotes about James waking before the sun to organize a fundraiser or showing up to a former coach’s kid’s birthday party:

Basketball people love talking about intangibles, qualities they can't quite measure but swear are important. With James, intangibles have a funny way of becoming tangible. Everywhere he goes, he leaves winning in his wake. The Charlotte Hornets are the latest team hoping to harness his magic.

Like so many others, James’ legend starts with some breakfast sandwiches.

One Saturday morning early in his Tulane tenure, James and Ryan pooled what little spending money they had — this was before NIL, mind you — and bought a dozen McMuffins for New Orleans’ unhoused population.

“It felt like I had just signed away my entire bank account,” said Ryan. “We ended up having a conversation with a homeless fella. His name was Harry, and we sat there for about an hour talking to Harry. And we left both so touched by his story and moved by the circumstances he was facing. How do we show up for someone like that?”

“Living on the streets is very isolating and lonely, and that lack of human connection starts wearing on people’s resolve to be able to do the right thing. That opens up the world of addiction and all other sorts of things, and we’re like, what if we could just give Harry something to look forward to every week? So, in that moment, we committed to, we’re going to show every week for Harry.”

And show they did, again and again. Soon, Ryan and James founded Ryan’s Giving Tree, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, which led to recruiting volunteers from the Tulane student body and even basketball coaching staff while soliciting donations from corporations like Wal-Mart.

“Sion handled the daily operations, making sure volunteers were set up, setting plans to serve multiple sites at a time. He had that all laid out in Excel, spreadsheets, forecasts, he was all in on it. It was very easy to recruit other people, because if the starting point guard is showing up Saturday mornings, what’s your reason for not showing up?” explained Ryan.

Eventually, they scaled to hundreds of food items each weekend without sacrificing the human touch that differentiated them from a standard food drive.

That same willingness to show up every day allows James to shine on the basketball court, too. When he wasn’t helping the community, James was honing his on-court skills.

Initially, he was an afterthought on offense. “I came into college not being able to shoot, but I didn’t really know that,” James said on Duke’s The Brotherhood podcast. “In high school, I could do whatever I wanted. I was one of the best players in the county...I’m not really hearing much negative about my game. I get to college and dudes are guarding me at the free-throw line. I said, ‘What the heck are y’all doing back there?’”

James’ road from averaging 5.8 points and shooting 28% from deep as a freshman to notching 14.0 points and 38.1% as a senior was grueling. Claude Pardue, an assistant coach at Tulane and Sion’s personal shooting sensei, developed a plan for him after his freshman year.

“He was great because he believed in the big picture. I basically said, ‘Let’s do 3,000 makes of proper form shooting under the rim. Whenever you get the 3,000, let me know.’ A few days later, he came in and said, ‘Coach, I’m at 3,000, what’s next?’” Pardue said via phone. “I said, ‘Okay, take a step back.’ And his form changed. So I said, ‘Nope, do another 1,000,’ and he had to step back in. He wasn’t very happy with me.”

“We slowly built it up to the point where we’re shooting free throws, and we’re adding legs to it… it was ugly for a long time. And he just slowly developed. The discipline that it took, it’s very much a growth mindset vs. a fixed mindset. He believes in it for the long run. He made 75,000 makes over a six-month period. Then he did it again the next summer. Just did it by sheer repetition and being bored.”

“That’s exactly what it was,” James told me at Las Vegas Summer League in July, half-grimacing. “But man, I got so much better doing that.”

After a storied Tulane run that included leading the Green Wave to their highest winning percentage since 1999-2000 and two AAC Sportsmanship Awards, James graduated with hopes of entering the draft. Instead, reality called — or rather, it didn’t, as James was not selected to go to the NBA Draft Combine. Still, it was only a temporary setback.

“He’s wanted to be a pro forever,” said Pardue. “When he didn’t get invited to the Combine, he called me and was heartbroken. But he was immediately like, ‘Okay, what’s the plan? Let’s go attack it.’ At Tulane, we were like, ‘It’s time. You should go to Duke, you should go play with Cooper Flagg. It’s time.’”

James transferred to Duke University to prove he could compete at the highest levels of college basketball. It didn’t take long for James to earn a starting spot at the country’s most hallowed program, knocking down spot-up threes and taking (and breaking) the toughest defensive assignments:

James posted a 50/40/80 shooting split at Duke and was a critical part of the Blue Devils’ run to the Final Four.

“I think it’s just his professionalism, his feel for the game, his competitiveness that set him apart. What I loved most about Sion, though, is he never fought coaching one time,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said. “He was always hungry to learn more, always felt like he could do better and was just like Kon [Knueppel]. He was hard on himself, always took responsibility.”

Naturally, James took responsibility off the court, as well.

He worked with Duke’s support staff to ramp up another nonprofit, the Sion James Foundation. This wasn’t a no-show fluff project. “This dude was on the ground doing all the legwork,” said Bradley. James did everything from designing logos to managing donation deliveries with his trademark hyper-organized, color-coded spreadsheets.

At Summer League, James confirmed that the foundation had three major upcoming projects: an August basketball camp in the hometown of a college teammate who passed away; the third annual toy drive for a Charlotte children’s hospital; and the formation of a grant program to help fund high school students starting high-leverage social impact programs. All this in addition to the tens of thousands of dollars the SJF had already raised for community-oriented organizations.

Impressive stuff for a 23-year-old, and it caught the eye of a certain NBA franchise located just two hours from Duke.

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Unlikely-but-plausible predictions are distinct from your average “hot take,” a phrase I loathe. I put a lot of thought into these, trying to get ahead of the curve. I aim for roughly a 25% hit rate; much higher, and I wasn’t bold enough, but much lower means I wasn’t realistic. I even go back and grade them in the summer!

Really, these predictions are simply a view into the players and teams I’ll be watching closely this season. Let’s begin.

And hey! Before I forget, I talked about “Identity Changers” — players and coaches who will upend the way their new teams play — on RealGM Radio. Listen to the pod (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Pods) for crispy notes on more than a dozen guys, from LaMelo Ball to Isaiah Joe to LeBron James to Chip Engelland.

1) Leaguewide offensive rebounding hits 30%

Damn the torpedoes, we’re running it back!

For the fourth year in a row, I’ll make this prediction. Last year, teams got so close — 29.0%.

The league has seemingly figured out how to crash the glass without sacrificing transition defense, for several reasons:

• Tactically, the prevalence of tagging up1 and allowing corner spacers to linger by the free-throw line after a shot

• Replacing several old-school coaches over the years with younger, more analytically inclined ones focused on the possession game

• The prevalence of three-point shots, which take longer bounces and provide more opportunities for offensive rebounders

• A slight transition away from small-ball and toward more traditional two-big lineups

Many of last year's best offensive rebounding teams were also decent-to-good at transition defense:

The 10 best offensive rebounding teams averaged 15th in live-rebound transition defense; exactly average. For every New Orleans and Philadelphia (and my god, is Philly’s transition defense going to be bad this year) pantsing themselves running back, a Houston or Boston was crushing it on both ends.

More offensive rebounding is fun, so here’s hoping it finally cracks that mythical 30% barrier it hasn’t reached since 2004-05. Mostly, I just want to stop writing about it.

2) Scoot Henderson gets traded midseason

I almost never predict trades, but I’ve already talked about my hopes for a Lillard Sixth Man of the Year campaign, and I wanted to talk more Blazers. So here we are.

Ja Morant, Damian Lillard, Deni Avdija, and Jrue Holiday are all ahead of Scoot Henderson not just in the offensive pecking order, but as general ballhandlers, too. The former third overall pick isn't exactly in a position to succeed in Portland.

Health and lack of opportunity have kept Henderson from showing what he can really do as a starter, but he’s improved every year. The shooting isn’t knockdown, but it’s steady. His defense is on the ups, but the final level is uncertain. His passing has always been there when he’s given the keys to the offense. Scoot still can’t really finish at the rim, but he’ll improve if and when he stays upright for an extended period. On any given night, he’ll show a fine piece of his game, but he rarely puts all his best feet forward at once.

I have no idea what to make of him, and I’m not sure the Blazers do, either.

Henderson will be entering the final year of his rookie deal. He desires a big new contract, but it’s doubtful Portland will meet his wants. Restricted free agency has become rather unkind to players like Henderson; if I were him and his representation, I’d work the phones hard to see if anyone would offer Henderson a lucrative extension while meeting the Blazers’ price for a trade.

That’s a lot to ask, and we don’t usually see highly-drafted players get traded on their rookie-scale contra — oh wait, the #1 overall pick from two years ago, Zaccharie Risacher, just got moved this summer. Never mind.

Holiday and Lillard don’t have too many years left as high-level contributors; Ja Morant is his own kind of question mark. Portland likely would love to hold onto Henderson for a succession plan, and holding his rights ensures they can. But if he makes enough noise behind the scenes, and someone else comes calling in pre-agency for Scoot… I wouldn’t be shocked to see him elsewhere in February.

3) Austin Reaves and Cooper Flagg both make the All-Star team

Neither Reaves nor Flagg felt bold enough on their own, so I decided to ramp up the difficulty and parley them.

Health could be the only thing standing between Reaves and a surefire spot. In 12 games with Luka Doncic and without LeBron James, Reaves averaged 25/5/7 on excellent 63% true shooting. If he’s doing that for the first half of next season, the numbers will be too big to ignore.

Flagg snatched a Rookie of the Year trophy by averaging 21/7/5 himself (with generous rounding), albeit not as efficiently as Reaves. But Kyrie Irving will make things easier, and it’s fair to expect monster growth from a player who's somehow still one of the youngest in the league (even accounting for all the new rookies).

Flagg was already a good finisher and playmaker as a rookie; how much better can he be? The spacing on this team is still cramped, and an injury to Irving would be nearly as devastating to Flagg as Irving himself. Even after a little bit of a talent drain, the West is still loaded with big names.

This is a bet on the sheer talent involved. As in his lone year at Duke, Flagg visibly improved as the season went on. There’s little reason to think he won’t make a kangaroo-sized leap this year.

4) Philadelphia leads the league in free throw rate

Free throw rate, as defined by Cleaning the Glass, is made free throws per 100 possessions. So it’s combining quantity and quality.

The 76ers were sixth in this stat last year and added LeBron James and Jaylen Brown. While James isn’t at his peak in this regard, both he and Brown still use their strength to knock defenders off balance and get to the charity stripe. Brown shot a career-high 79.5% from the free-throw line last season.

If Joel Embiid, perhaps the premier practitioner of dark foul-drawing sorceries, cracks 40 games for the first time since 2022-23, this will be a lock.

5) Meleek Thomas makes an All-Rookie Team

Meleek Thomas, a 6’3” shooting guard who sports some adorable braces in his NBA headshot, was Summer League’s surprise leading scorer, averaging 27.3 points per contest for Cleveland. The second-round pick received a long look in last night’s preseason game, too, and while he wasn’t quite as electric (11 points on 5-for-13 shooting in a game-high 23 minutes), he’s got the kind of silky self-creation that the occasionally stodgy Cavaliers have desperately needed:

The Cavs are deep, particularly if boomerang Mario Hezonja can actually play (he, too, received plenty of minutes in the first preseason game). But something about Thomas’s heat-check confidence tickles me, and he’s got enough defensive and passing chops to pique my interest.

He has the talent to be a top-10 rookie this season; will he get the opportunity?

6) The Clippers, not the Kings, enter the relegation zone

The poorly-named “relegation zone” was part of the league’s lottery reform. It ensures the bottom three teams all have worse odds of getting a top pick, hoping to scare a minimum of competency into the league’s dregs.

That line of logic doesn’t really work for bad teams that don’t control their own picks, however. I’m taking it as a borderline fait accompli that the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks will be two of the three worst teams next season. The Rockets have swap rights with Brooklyn (thanks, James Harden!), and the Pelicans or Hawks get the Bucks pick (from the long-ago Jrue Holiday acquisition which led to a Bucks championship).

The Nets and Bucks won’t be incentivized to lose, but they won't be chasing wins, either.

The Kings, on the other hand, are the overwhelming Vegas favorite to post the league’s worst record. Their 21.5 over/under is three wins worse than Brooklyn’s 24.5, the next-worst projection. That’s crazy!

I get it, from a this-is-the-Kangz-we’re-talking-about-here perspective. The roster does not overfloweth with talent. All the vets seem unhappy, and the franchise’s fate rests on a rookie point guard — traditionally a losing proposition.

But Sacramento does control their own draft pick. They will be scratching and clawing like a cornered badger to get out of the dreaded relegation zone. Logic dictates that sheer desperation (which may or may not include a moderate win-now trade at the deadline) should be enough to float them past another team that doesn’t control their own pick. But who would that be?

Oh.

Sorry, LAC fans. Note that these are unlikely predictions, because I think this is closer to a play-in roster with a little scrappy upside. But injuries keep mounting, and without a pick to care about, Los Angeles should ask anyone and everyone if they want useful vets like Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn, and more. I don’t know if the fire-sale route would be worthwhile versus simply putting out a decent product, particularly for a team with a, uh, fragile relationship with its beleaguered fans. But it’s a real possibility.

Danny LeRoux of The Athletic and Dunc’d On likes to talk about the gravity of incentives. In this case, I think the Kings wanting so badly to win a few games and the Clippers not particularly caring could be enough to flip the script.

7) At least as many teams are between 30-39 wins as between 40-49 wins.

This is my stab at discussing how increased competitiveness around the league could affect win distributions. I’m hopeful that the barbell distribution days, when two handfuls of gawdawful teams gave free wins to everyone else, are over, and we’ll see a much more linear stratification of wins. More squads than usual will wind up in that 30-40 win zone, and far fewer will reach 45+.

Under the old lottery system, there was no reason to aim for 35 wins. If you were going to be bad, you wanted to be really bad. That meant any team with a shred of talent/dignity could eat wins from the league’s flounders and catfish.

Last season, an incredible 10 teams were between 40 and 49 wins, versus three between 30 and 39. That’s a starker split than usual, but you have to go back to 2018-19 for the last time the 30s were equally represented.

I’m not exactly sure how this will all play out, but the lottery reform will change things. We’ll discuss that more further down.

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15) Los Angeles Lakers

Ever see a man spontaneously explode? Watch JJ Redick; it’s gonna happen any day now.

Luka Doncic’s individual brilliance is consistently jaw-dropping, but his constant complaining and criticizing have always turned me off. At his best, he’s one of the league’s great showmen. He might drop 70 again this year.

Austin Reaves’ foul-drawing tricks are nifty and effective, but not always beautiful. Still, he has plenty of jaw-dropping moments:

The role players are an odd bunch. Quentin Grimes has become disturbingly important. I hate to admit it, but I’m a little curious to see how Bronny James stands on his own two feet. Sandro Mamukelashvili has a much daintier game than his frame would suggest, while Jarred Vanderbilt is an anthropomorphized floor burn.

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It’s time for me to spend far too many words creating an utterly meaningless list that nonetheless upsets a great many people. This is Part I; Part II is here.

Doing League Pass rankings is sort of like being the Spotify DJ at a house party. I keep popular opinion in mind, but I’ll make room for my own favorites, as well. Try to subtly influence people in the “right” direction, as deemed by my unimpeachable taste in basketball viewing experiences. (“Wait, why do the Washington Wizards keep coming up in this playlist?”)

Novelty and team competency are the two most important qualities, in that order. I crave something new, be it a cool rookie or an exciting superstar addition. To a lesser degree, I consider everything from the announcing crew to the jerseys and courts to the in-arena entertainment, plus everything in between.

One thing I’ll note upfront: more teams than usual turned over part or all of their on-air broadcast talent, and that’s a sneaky-big part of the viewing experience. I tried to keep up with as much as I could, but I may have missed a change or two.

Finally, my typical disclaimer. I use bold font once per year, saved up just for this sentence: There are no unwatchable teams. That’s doubly true this season, where nobody has major incentive to lose.

So if your favorite team is low on this list, that doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy watching them! It just means I enjoy watching everyone else more, which, yeah, maybe that’s not as comforting as I meant it to be.

If you’re extra freaky and want to look at previous years, here are the 2026 and 2025 editions.

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30) Brooklyn Nets

For the third year in a row, the Brooklyn Nets bring up the rear in our League Pass rankings.

The placement is what it is, but truly, there are plenty of reasons to tune in to this team. A top-notch production with the Eagles (Ian and Noah), Sarah Kustok, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson1. The possible (probable?) level-up of Egor Demin. An exciting new rookie in Mikel Brown Jr., and an All-Star run for Michael Porter Jr. The nascent potential of young guys Nolan Traore, Day’Ron Sharpe, and/or Noah Clowney. Every time I’m out on Clowney, he sucks me right back in:

Plus, coach Jordi Fernandez is always cookin’ up something fun.

The Nets finishing last says far more about the rest of the league than it does about Brooklyn.

29) Sacramento Kings

I’m modestly interested in gunslinger rookie Darius Acuff. Certainly not as invested as the entire Kings staff, as this hilarious vid from James Ham proves:

I’m a believer in a Keegan Murray bounce-back season, but he doesn’t have the most aesthetically pleasing game. Malik Monk is a sneaky-great in-game dunker, but he doesn’t play much these days. Domantas Sabonis toils and toils and gets no respect (even in these here rankings). If you filtered Zach LaVine’s game through a Brita filter for just the highlights, he’d be a massive crowd-pleaser. If.

Frankly, the best reason to tune into Kings basketball is Dylan Cardwell’s wild celebrations, but when the third-string center (at least until Sabonis is traded) is the main thing to watch, well, it’s a tough sell.

28) Milwaukee Bucks

The biggest problem with the Bucks is that their best players overlap like sliced cheese in a deli package.

Tyler Herro, Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr., Brayden Burries, and Kasparas Jakucionis are all a slightly different flavor of combo guard; Myles Turner and Kel’el Ware are ostensibly stretch-fives; and Jaime Jaquez Jr., Ousmane Dieng, and even rookie Nate Ament are tweener forwards.

I think there is an interesting team in here somewhere, and new coach Taylor Jenkins is as good at solving jigsaw puzzles as anyone. But it’ll take a long time and perhaps a trade or two for Milwaukee to find the best version of themselves.

27) New Orleans Pelicans

Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen should improve upon up-and-down rookie years; both have characteristics (Fears’ handle and downhill driving, Queen’s passing) that could lead to cult-favorite status in the future.

Trey Murphy is an NBA 2K god, equally liable to cram one in your face as drain a 30-footer. Herb Jones is a lockdown perimeter defender out to prove he can be healthy and productive.

Zion Williamson is diminished, but he’s still Zion Williamson, a singular force in the paint.

Jamahl Mosley, whose name I can never spell right the first time (I’m desperate to introduce the “h” to the “o” and “s” in his last name), could well bring some respectability back to this crew on defense. And they do have one of my favorite broadcast crews in Joel Meyers and Antonio Daniels.

Your feelings on King Cake Baby might vary, but at the very least, he’s memorable, and the team’s “Skelican” jerseys might be my favorites in the entire league.

But the team has been unserious for too long. The offense has been less than the sum of its parts, and the defense doesn’t have many parts to begin with. As useful as Saddiq Bey was last season, there was just soooo much Saddiq Bey.

How long is Dejounte Murray destined for this team?

26) Phoenix Suns

I feel terribly about this ranking. The Suns were an extremely enjoyable group to watch last year, scrappier than Leroy Brown and filled with three-point bombers.

But they lost a little bit of what made them special in trading Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale for Miles Bridges. Devin Booker is always a guy I’ve respected and appreciated more than I’ve enjoyed viewing. This is a do-or-die season for Jalen Green, but if it’s just more of the same, the at-home experience will sour quickly. Dillon Brooks’ brand of villainy appeals to a specific slice of fan.

The Suns destroyed bad teams last year, going 23-4 against the bottom 10 teams. There won’t be nearly as many uncompetitive squads this season, so Phoenix could struggle.

Quick tangent: props to Mat Ishbia and the Suns for making their games available on local TV for free! That’s a strategy I’d love to see more teams adopt.

I’m deeply worried that the NBA has been losing the casual fan. It’s hard for me to remember the last time I had a real-life conversation with someone who cared about their local team but wasn’t into the nitty-gritty of Jalen Duren’s restricted free agency. I 100% acknowledge this could be personal bias based on my experiences, but I’m not the only one who feels this way. Games have become too hard to consume, split between a thousand different streaming services and cable networks.

Last year’s move back to NBC for some primetime matches was a huge step in the right direction, and the Suns continuing their free broadcast is another. The game needs sunlight to grow.

Unfortunately, those good vibes don’t boost Phoenix here. Neither do the widely-beloved, personally reviled “Valley” Brick Breaker uniforms.

25) Los Angeles Clippers

Brandon Ingram, hurt. Bradley Beal, hurt. My beloved Jordan Miller? Super-hurt.

But Darius Garland is a wizard with the basketball, and Keaton Wagler and Kobe Sanders promise fun, high-IQ play for basketball nerds. Ty Lue is one of the best coaches in the Association.

I just finished extolling the virtues of Kris Dunn. Derrick Jones Jr. will dunk on you on one end and snatch your cookies on the other. Brook Lopez is leaking oil, but second-year center Yanic Konan Niederhauser showed some really exciting high-energy flashes before he got hurt (and he’ll start the year sidelined, so that’s a little worrisome). Twice a year, Max Strus loses his goddamn mind in a funny way.

Also, I’m at least a little curious to see if this year’s group takes all the offseason horribleness and re-packages it into bulletin board material. Will they be like last year’s Suns and bring a ****-you attitude to the court?

If you’re a hardcore League Pass vet, the Clippers will be sneaky-fun even with their injuries. For normal people who mostly watch the stars and national TV games, they will be excruciating.

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24) Golden State Warriors

It’s sacrilegious to put Steph Curry near the bottom of a League Pass ranking. I dare not step outside even on sunny days for fear of retributive lightning.

Curry is worth the price of admission alone. He will have moments when you forget about all your problems, when you’re just glad to be alive at the same time as the GS(hooter)OAT.

But this team is so banged up. Jimmy Butler will be out for months recovering from a torn-up knee. Moses Moody, same deal. Kristaps Porzingis is, I guess, permanently day-to-day with his POTS (or whatever? I’m still unclear), and he’s out indefinitely at the start of the season.

There is depth here in Gui Santos, De’Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski (primed for a small breakout), Al Horford, and intriguing rookie Yaxel Lendeborg. Bump them up a dozen spots when they’re fully healthy. But when so much top talent is on the shelf and out of reach, it’s hard to muster much enthusiasm. These days, I can only watch Draymond Green’s antics and turnovers so often.

Bonus negative points for losing Pat “I’M THAT MOTHERF*****!” Spencer.

23) Chicago Bulls

Caleb Wilson will have games where he looks like The Future, but he’ll have plenty more where he looks like the raw 20-year-old that he is. Josh Giddey’s passing is top-tier, and Norm Powell provides some north-south oomph and deadeye shooting. Nic Claxton isn’t my cup of chamomile, but he at least provides something resembling a defensive backbone for a team that sorely needs it. Tre Jones’ roaring transition drives and never-quit defense provide some nice bench punch.

Matas Buzelis could be the next League Pass star. He’s got bounce, he’s got range, and he’s increasingly got a killer mentality. Watch his predatory patience here:

I’m keeping a close eye on him.

RIP to Stacey King, an announcing legend. Robbie Hummel and company have big shoes to fill. Benny the Bull is a top-five mascot, dumping popcorn on people and playing Operation and nailing backward half-court shots in a way Chef Curry could only dream of.

The Bulls play fast as hell, and it’s a more fun brand of basketball than their inevitably disappointing record shows. But sadly, the league pass rankings are even more competitive than the standings.

22) Orlando Magic

The Magic have a chance to be really good this season, and if they are, that almost certainly means they’ll be more aesthetically pleasing, too. But new coach Sean Sweeney needs to figure out how to wring some spacing out of a rotation that had only two players shoot above 35% from deep last year (Desmond Bane and Tristan da Silva).

This team overflows with talent and the corresponding pressure that comes with it. If Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero can’t make it work, Anthony Black is waiting in the wings for a bigger role. A huge trade isn’t out of the question.

The broadcast team is wonderfully comforting, a hot toddy on a cold night. Stuff the Dragon was named Mascot of the Year. He brings his fastball every game.

But there’s too much grime, too much kludginess, mucking up the gears. I’m optimistic it can work out, but I need to see it first.

21) Houston Rockets

If you like offensive rebounding, boy, do I have the team for you! Unfortunately, offensive rebounding doesn’t have the mass market appeal of, say, making shots the first time.

As I said on RealGM Radio yesterday, Amen Thompson is my preseason pick to return to form and nab my oh-so-prestigious Perimeter Defensive Player of the Year award. I hope he and Tari Eason can go back to their “Terror Twins” ways.

Some people count sheep to fall asleep; I count Kevin Durant elbow jumpers. Alperen Sengun has winnowed out the wildest passes from his repertoire, which is good for the team but bad for my viewing needs. Say what you want about Marcus Smart, he always keeps things interesting.

I find myself in the mentally incongruous position of simultaneously thinking the Fred-VanVleet-as-savior storyline is wildly overblown and that the Rockets will be really good.

The best news? My darling “Dunkstronaut” court should return in some form or fashion.

20) Cleveland Cavaliers

Every year, I’m a little too high on the Cleveland Cavaliers. While I’m excited about the addition of Peyton Watson, I suspect he’ll be a difference-maker in the playoffs more so than the regular season.

Donovan Mitchell is one of my favorite individual watches in the league, all spin moves and flyover gathers. I’m not sure when I last saw someone overload gravity on two defenders:

James Harden’s passing is sublime, absolute art. Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill bring some fun strengths off the bench. Evan Mobley isn’t the most exciting player, but he still has upward potential.

This is probably too low. But I don’t know; even with Watson, it all feels a little same-y to me. More than any team, the Cavs need to fast-forward to the postseason.

19) Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving’s return helps balance one of the league's most pear-shaped rosters, a group where Cooper Flagg is more likely to play point guard than power forward (his natural position). But Uncle Drew can only do so much to tip the scales.

The Mavs have plenty of fun watches: and-one maestro Santi Aldama, Naji “The Knife” Marshall, PJ Washington, corner-three superstar Max Christie. Rookie Morez Johnson (can we call him Mo yet? Michigan people, is that acceptable?) has the kind of bulldozing paint game that can electrify an arena, and I haven’t given up on Zaccharie Risacher as a real player.

But this team is basically Irving, Daniel Gafford, and a million forwards. There isn’t enough role differentiation for me to believe it’ll all fit snugly. And why can’t Dallas find one decent set of uniforms?

18) Memphis Grizzlies

I’ve somehow found myself bringing up the Grizzlies this season on RealGM Radio way, way more than I should. I don’t know when it happened, but I contracted a bad case of the Beale Street blues2.

Still, this is hedging my bets. If I know I’m getting 60 games of Zach Edey, this will be too low. If he misses substantial time, though, this will likely be too high.

There are a lot of “buts” with this team (stop giggling). The team has a lot of depth, but not much high-end talent. Rookie Cam Boozer is the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year, but he’s not a slam dunk. Advanced analytics love Ty Jerome like my toddler loves cake, but he’s unproven as a starter — as is Memphis’ entire backcourt.

I really like Brevin Knight and Pete Pranica on the call, and the Grizzlies have had some underrated jerseys and courts over the years.

17) Toronto Raptors

While I’m very high on this group’s potential to be a top-10 team on both ends of the floor, I’m not quite as sure they’ll be must-see TV.

Scottie Barnes’ passing is gorgeous, and the team will defend like all hell (congrats to Jamal Shead on his new $24 million contract!). I’m glad they’re bringing back the dunking dino jerseys.

But there are only so many Kawhi Leonard jab steps I can watch before I get tired. And if/when he gets hurt, this offense could become messy really fast.

16) Charlotte Hornets

I’m nervous.

Brandon Miller’s shoulder is supposedly good to go, but Kon Knueppel’s hamstring is on the fritz (as is Grant Williams’). I’m sick of hamstrings ruining everything! And as optimistic as I am about the Naz Reid addition, the loss of LaMelo Ball hangs over this franchise. They’ll miss his magic.

Last year’s Hornets finished as a top-five League Pass team. Even if they’re feisty, this year’s group won’t be quite as electric.

But Moussa Diabate scratches and claws for every rebound, Knueppel and Miller’s growth will be worth watching, and Coby White will be on a mission to remove the “underrated” label from his rep once and for all. People don’t appreciate how good he is at getting to the hoop. White has a staccato pace all his own:

Sion James, Royce O’Neale, Grayson Allen, and rookie Hannes Steinbach should create some very fun bench units.

Plus, the Hornets have the best all-around art in the game, and announcer Eric Collins could make competitive grass-growing feel like a thrill ride. I’m open to moving them up if the season goes well.

That’s it for today! If your team wasn’t listed here, great news, that means they’ll be showing up in Part II next week. See you then.

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After a while watching that much basketball, you start to notice certain patterns emerging. Stuff that sticks out like a nail in an old boardwalk, subtle until you trip on it and wonder how you could have ever not seen it.

I spend all season putting ideas for this article into a dedicated note, analyzing film and poring through statistical databases. Then, when the summer comes, I go back and dial in on these players and their quirks to make sure they’re real, not just one-off events I happened to catch on a random Tuesday night.

The result is always one of my favorite posts to write. Welcome to the 2026 edition of “NBA players with a surprising skill.” (Click here to find 2025, 2024, and 2023 editions, plus a bonus article I wrote for HoopsHype a few years ago.)

This is for the sickos. There won’t be much about the superstars in here; how much more could I tell you about LeBron James or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? But if you like getting into the weeds, learning some nitty-gritty stuff, you’ll be happy with today’s output.

As always, remember that I’m not typically saying a player is the best at something (although there are exceptions). This is a compilation of microskills that aren’t well known outside that player’s specific fanbase and that deserve more attention. Where possible, I tried to verify that this was a long-running pattern that stretched across multiple seasons.

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Big things are in store for Basketball Poetry; I hope you’ll be riding shotgun with me.

And, as always, if you’ve noticed a surprising skill you want to highlight, drop it in the comments. I love when readers educate me!

Jerami Grant, never dipping

Jerami Grant has become one of the undisputed masters of the no-dip three (a catch-and-shoot jumper where the scorer catches the ball and fires without bringing it down into their normal shooting motion). Here’s a great angle:

Without access to the deepest level of tracking data, there’s no way to see how Grant stacks up to other no-dippers like Sam Hauser and the now-retired Nic Batum. But anecdotally speaking, I feel like I’ve seen Grant take (and make) more of these than the rest of the league combined.

No-dip threes are a strange skill; in a perfect world, they wouldn’t exist because passes would be on target every time. Perhaps Deni Avdija’s effective but occasionally haphazard drive-and-kicks gave Grant more opportunities to capitalize off errant passes. Regardless, Grant has turned the no-dip three into his signature move.

Justin Champagnie, the putback king

This is a fun one! I’ve talked many times about my love for Justin’s identical twin, San Antonio’s Julian Champagnie, but Justin is a cool NBA player in his own right. He’s played 20+ minutes per game for the Wizards for two straight mostly healthy seasons now, so we have enough sample to crown Justin Champagnie the league’s putback king (non-big-man edition).

No non-center in the league had as many immediate second-chance points as Champagnie’s 112 last season, and he led all non-centers on a per-possession basis, too. Champagnie averaged 3.85 putback points per 100 possessions, more than famed offensive rebounders like Neemias Queta, Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. For further context, 3.85 was more than three times that of noted glass-cleaner Amen Thompson, who is both bigger and one of the freakiest athletes in the league.

Champagnie wasn’t quite as prolific the year prior, but he was still near the top for non-bigs. Hustle is a skill, and Champagnie is aided by rare mid-air ambidexterity; watch him with the lefty putback slam here:

The Wizards are deeper and should be far more competent this year, but don’t be surprised if Champagnie’s defense, rebounding, and snarling ferocity earn him a real role in Washington’s rotation yet again.

Kris Dunn, mean screens

Using guards as screeners has become standard in every good NBA playbook. However, few small guys dig setting a mean-ass screen quite as much as Kris Dunn. He has no problem tussling with bigger players, sacrificing his body on one play before wrapping up an unsuspecting defender in a blatantly illegal (yet uncalled! Refs rarely pay attention to small guys setting screens) hug on another. No ghost or fake screens here!

Watch this absolutely gorgeous Ty Lue-designed gem. Kris Dunn makes an entry pass to James Harden in the post, then casually cuts to the paint like he’s jogging to the corner. Psych! Casualness turns to cruelty at the drop of a hat, and he blindsides Collin Murray-Boyles in the paint, allowing a cutting Ivica Zubac to draw the foul:

Dunn is full of fun traits, from his nasty picks to his hellacious defense to his tendency for at least one completely unnecessary, utterly enjoyable pass per game:

You probably won’t watch many Clippers games this year. But when you do, keep an eye on Dunn.

Alperen Sengun, violating lanes

Ok, so this is more of a peccadillo than a skill, but I wanted to talk about it because I discovered a fascinating historical anomaly amidst the dusty, dingy NBA records.

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Last year’s 10 best defensive ratings belonged, in order, to OKC, Detroit, San Antonio, Houston, Boston, Minnesota, Toronto, Atlanta, Phoenix (take a bow, Jordan Ott!), and New York.

Of those, only four (OKC, Houston, Boston, and Minnesota) were similarly successful in 2024-25 (although seven repeated from 2023-24 to 2024-25).

I’ll be honest: after the top two teams, this got really difficult, really fast. Wes Goldberg and I broke it all down on the RealGM Podcast, so check that out if you want to hear us go deeper on the teams below and a handful more (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Pods).

All numbers are from Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

You may be surprised to see the Thunder at the top of my list (which would be their third consecutive number-one finish), given they lost Lu Dort. But Cason Wallace is a flat-out better defender than Dort now, and the team should get far more (and far more effective) games from Jalen Williams, who was All-Defensive Second Team two years ago.

The Thunder contested everything without fouling (second-lowest eFG% allowed, second-lowest free throw rate) and also forced the second-most turnovers in the league behind only Detroit. And they did all this without much shooting luck: OKC walls off dribble penetration with sublime individual and team defense, forcing opponents to shoot more than 40% of their attempts from deep. And teams actually hit 37.1% of their triples against OKC, one of the league's higher marks!

But the Thunder will live with an extra three here or there if they can dominate at the rim. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein guarding the paint and a slew of long-armed wings lurking, the Thunder allowed just 60.2% shooting at the rim, more than 2.5% better than second-place Detroit. Crazy!

My jaw would crack the basement if the Thunder fall out of the top three this year.

2) San Antonio Spurs

Everything I’d hoped for the Spurs’ defense came true last year, and they still have plenty of upward potential.

Wemby stayed healthier (although, at just 64 games excluding the NBA Cup Final, he could play even more). Steph Castle and Dylan Harper looked like a lockdown duo, and Devin Vassell made a major leap on that end. (Julian Champagnie has always been underrated here.)

The vets, like De’Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson, played at or above their historic levels (give or take Harrison Barnes, who was benched halfway through the season). Luke Kornet filled in admirably as a high-level defensive backstop in his own right.

None of that should change.

Even the Thunder occasionally run out softer targets like Jared McCain; the Spurs have no pigeons to hunt, and adding Tobias Harris to handle stronger power forwards alleviates the Spurs’ only marginal weakness.

Coach Mitch Johnson relies upon a hyper-conservative scheme that had San Antonio top three in eFG% allowed, foul rate, and defensive rebounding, but they never forced turnovers. With Wembanyama holding two giant erasers, ready to rectify any mistakes, I’d like to see the perimeter players (particularly Castle and Harper) given more license to go for steals. Create some mayhem, San Antonio!

Wes pointed out in the pod that Western Conference teams have spent all summer devising ways to mitigate Wemby’s monstrous defensive impact. Perhaps we see the league go toward more of a fullback strategy, using big galumphs to Gortat-screen Wemby out of the action with brutal physicality. Watch Rudy Gobert put on his best battering-ram impression:

If this becomes more common, San Antonio can always pour some French Vanilla into their coffee. We didn’t see much of the Kornet/Wemby duo last year (and things went terribly in the handful of possessions they did play together), but that’s another tactical lever for Johnson to pull if necessary.

Smart people would say not to mess with a system that generated the league’s only top-three offense and top-three defense. But I want to fly San Antonio’s kite even higher; if the cards fall right, this could become one of the greatest defenses of all time. Don’t limit yourself, Mitch Johnson!

I have to dock them a spot because they are still so reliant upon Wembanyama to maximize their potential. The Thunder’s defense has proven to be injury-proof, but if Wemby goes down for an extended stretch, the Spurs can’t reach their loftiest goals.

3) Houston Rockets

While I’m as leery as anyone about Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart taking minutes away from Reed Sheppard, whose development is critical to sustained Houston Rockets success, those two represent substantial upgrades for an already elite defense.

We won’t turn this into a referendum on Sheppard, who is an elite defensive playmaker but hopelessly outmatched one-on-one defender1. Smart’s numbers last season paint the picture of an All-Defensive Team candidate, and even a diminished VanVleet should be stout on that end.

The trickle-down effect might matter even more. Amen Thompson was my DPOY two years ago, but I thought his increased offensive load last season hurt his defense. With less to shoulder, he should return to being a top-five guardsman in the league.

Jabari Smith isn’t my favorite player on either end, but most viewers agree he’s a very good, flexible defender. Tari Eason is a freight train spewing chaos everywhere he goes, and Jae’Sean Tate is a solid, positionally amorphous bench option.

Steven Adams and the underrated Alperen Sengun aren’t prototypical shot-blockers, but both bring enough to avoid being negatives. The bevy of perimeter talent mitigates the lack of high-flying rim protection.

Houston will miss Josh Okogie, and Kevin Durant will be another quarter-step slower. But coach Ime Udoka typically gets the best out of his guys defensively, and he has a lot of tools to work with this season.

4) Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were seventh in defense last year and are swapping out Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and Sandro Mamukelashvili (three mediocre-at-best defenders) for Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson, and Andre Jackson Jr. (three good-to-great ones).

I’m being a bit facetious, because Anderson and Jackson likely won’t play many minutes. But there’s still a bit of addition by subtraction here. Add in growth from last year’s standout rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, and perhaps a few more minutes for Ja’Kobe Walter, and I’m projecting elite things for this unit.

Toronto’s biggest strength will be off-ball/team defense, as they have a battalion of high-IQ defenders who can destroy plays before they happen, stick their hands in inconvenient places, and block shots at the rim. They should be a top-three turnover-forcing machine.

5) Boston Celtics

The C’s shockingly finished fifth in defensive rating in 2026, and I kind of think their personnel is better now. For my money, Paul George is a better overall defender than Jaylen Brown, and so is Jayson Tatum. The question is how available those two guys will be; whatever your feelings on Brown, at least he was always in uniform.

The team shored up the center position. Neemias Queta had one of the league’s highest defensive on/off splits last year, a testament to both his development and the team’s complete lack of a reliable backup rim protector. Queta should be even better this year after his first full year as a starter, and when he’s off the court, foes now have to deal with Mitchell Robinson coming in to club shots away.

Joe Mazzulla is an emotionless basketball murder-robot. He will suffer nothing but top effort from everyone. His inverted coaching philosophies always make me laugh; the Celtics love threes and midranges on offense, but on defense, they allow foes to take any jump shots they want in order to wall off the paint — opponents took just 24.3% of their shots at the rim against Boston, almost 4% fewer than second-place Sacramento(!?).

Still, the results speak for themselves. Boston’s been a top-five defensive team for five straight years, and outside of injury unluck, it’s hard for me to see them falling much further than that.

6) Miami Heat

Last year’s 13th-place finish broke a decade straight of top-10 defensive performances for Erik Spoelstra, dating back to 2015-16. I’m projecting a return to form.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s defense had been slipping for a few seasons, but I thought he started 2025-26 with a vengeance before falling off due to injury and discontent. A motivated Giannis is still a highly impactful defender to flank perennial down-ballot DPOY candidate Bam Adebayo. Davion Mitchell is small but mighty at the point of attack, and Andrew Wiggins is a solid defensive option on the wing.

Pelle Larsson is the kind of scrappy, physical player opponents hate going against, and Dru Smith might be the best defender nobody has ever heard of:

I am worried that Miami’s bench leans more heavily toward the offense, limiting this team’s ceiling. But if Spoelstra decides to run Larsson or Smith out as the team’s fifth closer, Miami has a five-man defensive unit as good as anyone this side of San Antonio and OKC.

If you’re looking for that one tentpole defensive skill, the Heat should be one of the league's best rebounding teams.

7) Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham is a positive defender at point guard, Ausar Thompson came in third in Defensive Player of the Year voting, and Jalen Duren took substantial strides last year (if Duren leaves, all bets are off). I also love Daniss Jenkins’ full-court pressure off the bench, and Ron Holland would garner All-Defensive Team attention with slightly more discipline (and opportunity). Coach JB Bickerstaff is elite at wringing every ounce of defensive talent out of his guys.

The Pistons will miss Tobias Harris’ steady ballast, and although Isaiah Stewart disappointed in the playoffs, he was one of the league’s best regular-season defenders. Detroit also had major shooting luck — opponents only hit 34.4% of their triples against the Pistons. I toyed with dropping the Pistons out of the top 10 entirely. But with Paul Reed taking Isaiah Stewart’s minutes, I think they’ll be just as good, if not better, at their core strength: forcing turnovers, where they beat out even the slavering hellhounds in Oklahoma.

A team’s culture comes from its coach and best player, both of whom are committed to the defensive end. The Pistons will be worse, perhaps substantially, than last year’s second-place finish, but they could drop off a good bit and still be above average.

8) New York Knicks

The same concerns I have with the Knicks’ maintaining an excellent offense apply here, too. To quote myself: “Championship teams often perform worse and become more injury-prone the following year due to some combination of the Plexiglass principle2, the wear and tear of a long season, and diminished motivation.”

The Knicks put the screws to every offense they faced in the playoffs. They’ve proven they can clamp down at the highest level… so it's natural for them to exhale a little this regular season. Plus, Mitchell Robinson isn’t around anymore, and even prime Andre Drummond couldn’t have filled those shoes. This version has no chance whatsoever.

Still, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart are an elite trio on the wing, coach Mike Brown figured out how to unlock Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jalen Brunson at least falls down and takes a lot of charges. I don’t feel great about keeping the Knicks this high, but it’s hard to find a compelling case to put too many teams over the defending champs, either.

9) Memphis Grizzlies

This is entirely dependent on Zach Edey playing 60 games, so right off the bat, you know it’s a terrible idea.

But in nearly 600 possessions last year, the Grizzlies had a 95.1 defensive rating with Edey on the court. That is 12 points better than OKC’s league-leading 107.3 season-long mark.

Small sample size, shooting luck, yada yada yada. The Grizzlies will suffer from Jaren Jackson Jr.’s absence, but on a microscopic sample, Memphis was actually even better with Edey on and JJJ off than with both together.

And Memphis has depth. Cedric Coward was rather good as a rookie and should improve in Year Two (although I’d love to see his puzzlingly low steal rate improve). Scottie Pippen Jr. will be a plus at point guard. Jaylen Wells will be healthy and effective on the wing. And the team even brought in Beef Stew to block shots and scare the living sh*t out of opponents in case Edey misses time!

Edey moves too fast for a man his size. Even when he looks beat, he just flips his hips and flyswats pesky floaters like King Kong versus an airplane:

The Grizzlies were 25th last year; asking for the top 10 might be a bridge or two too far. But San Antonio leapt from 25th two years ago to third last season, and that was with the Spurs only gaining an incremental 18 games from Wemby. Imagine if the Grizzlies get an extra 50 from Edey?

10) Orlando Magic

While the Magic did get 57 games out of perpetually injured Jalen Suggs, who’d run through a brick wall head-first if it ended with him getting a fingertip on a pass, they only received 34 from Franz Wagner, arguably their best overall defender.

The Magic are absolutely massive and had posted the second-best defensive rating in the league in each of the two years prior to last. They forced a metric ton of turnovers and dysoned up every loose ball and errant shot, dominating the possession game. I don’t think they’ll reach those same heights. But new coach Sean Sweeney is supposedly a defensive mastermind, and he benefits from being Not Jamahl Mosley3.

This is a make-or-break season for the Magic. They went all-in on the present with the Desmond Bane trade last summer, but Wagner’s playoff injury short-circuited whatever potential they had. Injuries can only be used as an excuse so many times.

If Orlando is to compete in a heavily fortified East, they’ll need to go back to their defensive roots.

Tough Cuts

Minnesota Timberwolves

Going from Julius Randle to Jonathan Kuminga is a wash with upside; going from Donte DiVincenzo (82 games!) to LaMelo Ball is a huge downgrade even if Ball retains his effort level from last year. Rudy Gobert is still incredible, but he’s another year older. The drop-off with big men is a cliff we never see coming until it’s there. Can Joan Beringer, about to assume 18 minutes per night, stop fouling everything in sight?

The Wolves have top-five defensive upside if everything goes right, but a lot of moving parts need to click into place.

Atlanta Hawks

This might be a little unfair.

I was a little worried that their ninth-place finish last season was boosted too much by a cupcake schedule down the stretch, but the Hawks ranked about the same against top-10 offenses, too (11th, if we’re being technical).

The Hawks are bringing back all their most important pieces from last year and added Lu Dort. I’m not sure how the backcourt minutes will shake out, given how many talented guards there are, but I do know adding Dort is unlikely to make the defense worse.

Still, Jalen Johnson (a defensive disappointment to me last year even given his spectacular offensive output) and CJ McCollum provide places to attack, and Onyeka Okongwu, while far better than I expected last season, needs to prove to me that he can do it again.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns tried like all hell last year, but can sheer scrapitude work again? They snuck up on the league last season, but they’re unlikely to do so again. A healthier Jalen Green will likely hurt the defense, too, though I wonder if they’ll fare better on that end without the injured Mark Williams at center. Losing Royce O’Neale and Grayson Allen for Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard is a downgrade, too.

Golden State Warriors

Reason for optimism: Yackety-yack, Yax attack

Golden State’s Yaxel Lendeborg made quite a splash during the Warriors’ numerous Summer Leagues, bombing 47% from deep on solid volume while showcasing the all-around game that had the draftniks so excited:

We’ll see how well the shooting and perimeter defense hold up in the NBA, but it’s hard to ask for much more from a guy drafted at the back of the lottery.

It’s unclear whether Steve Kerr will start Lendeborg at the three-spot ahead of Gui Santos or use him as a tweener super-sub. I’d bet on the latter to begin, but Lendeborg will get opportunities throughout the season to prove he’s worthy of a big role.

If he can make an immediate impact, the Warriors could become the proverbial Team No One Wants To Play in the spring. Although Stephen Curry didn’t get to run with Kristaps Porzingis much last year, the duo sported a +17.9 net rating in the paltry 106 possessions they logged together. Add in advanced stats star De’Anthony Melton, Draymond Green’s still-elite defense, the underrated Brandin Podziemski, and the eventual return of Jimmy Butler, and Golden State could have the ingredients to be a feisty Round 1 underdog. They just have to get there first.

Detroit Pistons

Reason for optimism: A slightly bigger phone booth

The Pistons made a lot of noise this offseason about adding shooting, and technically, they did. I’ve already talked about how they can build a potentially awesome scoring lineup with three deadeye snipers surrounding the Cade Cunningham/Jalen Duren pick-and-roll (and yes, I’m still assuming Duren plays for Detroit next year).

The shooting additions may be slightly overblown: John Collins was a more accurate shooter than Tobias Harris last year, but he actually attempted fewer threes on a per-possession basis. Isaiah Joe, Taurean Prince, and Gary Harris are all middle- or end-bench guys.

Still, last season’s Pistons couldn’t roll out a shooting-heavy lineup even when they wanted to; that’s why Duncan Robinson led the team in on/off rating. Being able to toggle between offense- and defense-oriented groups will be a huge boon for coach JB Bickerstaff.

The key, as always, is figuring out how to get both at the same time, but this team won 60 games last year. They conquered the regular season; it’s time to aim higher.

And hey! They signed Ausar Thompson to a pretty reasonable extension, so that’s cool, too.

Denver Nuggets

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(I talked with Wes Goldberg on RealGM Radio about this exact topic, so listen there for an expanded conversation and to see where reasonable minds violently differed. I didn’t even have his number-one offense in my top 10! Spotify, YouTube, Apple Pods)

As a baseline, here were last year’s top-10 offenses, in order: Nuggets, Celtics, Spurs, Knicks, Hornets, Thunder, Rockets, Cavaliers, Lakers, and Pistons. Five of those ten were in the top third of the league the year before, too (Denver, OKC, New York, Boston, Cleveland). You’ll see some of those same names, but there will be a few surprises.

Before you get mad, remember, we’re splitting hairs here; last year, the third-best offense had a 120.3 offensive rating, and the tenth-best offense posted a 118.3. So don’t sweat the individual placements too much unless you think I’m way off course (in which case, lecture me in the comments!). This is more of a thought exercise than a true prediction, because there’s far too much variability to nail these things down with any certainty.

Let’s start at the top. All numbers are from Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.

1. San Antonio Spurs

Incredibly, last season’s Spurs were third offensively, leaning on some crazy role inversion in which their rim pressure came from their guards and their spacing came from the frontcourt. Plus, you know, they had their alien in the middle (and on the perimeter, and in the corner, and…)

Without diminishing the threat of his off-the-dribble jumper, Wembanyama took fewer threes and asserted himself in the paint, a positive move given he makes three-quarters of his at-rim attempts. With a mostly healthy season and playoff run under his belt, he should find the right balance from the jump.

The same goes for his supporting cast. The whole Spurs team is back, and coach Mitch Johnson will be better for his many successes and few failures. The Spurs have no real weaknesses; they’re the only team that was in the top-10 in all the offensive Four Factors1, and there’s still plenty of room for internal growth.

San Antonio also had a top-quartile offense without Wembanyama, so I’m comfortable having them here even if Wemby misses a few weeks.

Adding Tobias Harris might hurt spacing a bit if he starts over Julian Champagnie, but he’ll be a killer secondary creator off the bench. I expect at least one of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper to develop into a real All-Star (yes, I know, Fox got in as an injury replacement last season). Both Castle and Harper showed enough as three-point shooters for me to reasonably factor in some progression, and both are already rabid Rabbids driving to the paint:

In fact, both youngsters took a higher share of shots at the rim than Wembanyama. That says a lot more about them than him!

Maybe they won’t be first, but is there a reasonable case against the Spurs being even an average offense aside from catastrophic injury? I can’t see one.

2. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been a top-10 attack every season since Jokic’s sophomore campaign and top-five for four straight years. I’m definitely concerned about the lack of Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas. Still, Cam Johnson found his stride toward the end of the season, and Aaron Gordon will probably play more than 36 games (he hadn’t played fewer than 50 since his rookie season).

I’m not certain if new addition DeMar DeRozan will be a net positive or net negative, but at the very least, he should prop up the bench units. He remains an excellent individual scorer and foul-drawer who should excel in a smaller role, particularly if he’s feasting on backups.

The Nuggets were last year’s number-one attack even with Jokic missing an uncharacteristic number of games. If he’s ambulatory, they could easily be the league's best offense again. The Nuggets ranked top-five in effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, and free-throw rate. Gordon’s availability should boost the lone culprit, offensive rebounding.

And they weren’t just beating up on the dregs. They were the best offense against top-10 teams!

Christian Braun needs to step up, but they’ve been an elite offense with him in the past. The lack of depth and ballhandling is concerning, and any step back from Jokic or Jamal Murray (coming off a career-best year) would hurt.

But I learned last year that betting against regular-season Jokic is a fool’s errand, so I’m taking the jester’s hat off this year.

3. Boston Celtics

Surprised? Me, too.

But even with last year’s diminished Jayson Tatum, the Celtics had a top-decile offense with Tatum on the court and Jaylen Brown off. Hell, they were 87th percentile without either player (almost entirely against bench units, but still!). We’re gonna see a whole lot more of those permutations this year, particularly if Tatum and Paul George struggle to stay healthy.

Prepare your mind; Payton Pritchard could lead the team in scoring for a month solely on 30-foot pull-ups with 20 seconds left on the shot clock:

The C’s will cradle the ball like a newborn baby (second-lowest turnover rate last season), swirl a dollop of Mitchell Robinson in to bolster the already elite offensive rebounding, and hope for bounce-back shooting seasons from Tatum and Derrick White. Plus, if Mike Conley can give them anything as a reserve pure point guard and leader, it’ll ease the burden on White and Pritchard.

The Celtics have been a top-four regular-season offense each year under Joe Mazzulla, and there are few reasons to expect change.

If we’re playing devil’s advocate, those reasons include:

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His full note is on social media here, and it’s exactly what you’d expect: an apology to fans and the league for creating a distraction, but one that takes no blame for his own actions. (To be fair, he can’t really take blame unless he wants to plead guilty to whatever charges the United States Justice Department, the SEC, or any other investigative bodies cook up.)

It’s fine. The important thing is that the Clippers have decided to swallow their bitter medicine instead of pursuing what would have been an inevitably fruitless but long-lasting legal Hail Mary. Perhaps they think cutting their losses now puts them on the road toward a reduction in penalty for good behavior, which is exactly what happened to Minnesota in the Joe Smith case. I suspect they’re right, but the Leonard case was more severe and the Clippers’ pushback far more brazen. We’ll check back a few seasons from now.

On the heels of Ballmer’s announcement came the Shams report that the Clippers and Raptors had finally consummated their long-paused trade, in which LA extracts a heavy price from Toronto: two firsts in ‘31 and ‘33, a swap next summer, two seconds, and Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick.

For a (say it with me now) healthy Kawhi Leonard, that’s a reasonable price, even at 35 years old! The Raptors were a spunky group that likely would have upset Cleveland in the first round if Scottie Barnes didn’t tweak his leg halfway through the series (or if Immanuel Quickley plays at all), and they just added a guy who was likely the fifth-best qualifying player in the league last year.

But the last time we saw Kawhi Leonard play even 60 games in two straight years was 2016 and 2017 — a full decade ago. He played 65 last season; what are the odds he’s still upright and healthy in the playoffs? And is the team’s surrounding core, even with Leonard, a real contender in a beefed-up East?

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Quickley has been a disappointment health-wise and defensively since arriving in Toronto three seasons ago, but he’s still a bombs-away gunner who takes great care of the ball. Jamal Shead is an elite defender and excellent passer as a high-minutes backup point guard. RJ Barrett is an underrated (if often frustrating) jack-of-all-trades at the two-man spot. Jakob Poeltl is certainly a center. I like Ja’Kobe Walter’s 3-and-Dness a whole lot, and rookie Allen Graves looked like a potential Day 1 contributor in Summer League. I already wrote about the defensive potential of the Collin Murray-Boyles, Scottie Barnes, and Kawhi Leonard frontcourt.

Thankfully, Leonard should make an even bigger difference in the team’s offense.

Like the guy he’s replacing, Ingram, Leonard likes to get the ball and assess the court with his dead shark eyes, projecting odds and outcomes. Unlike Ingram, Leonard is happy to fire away from deep (he nearly doubled Ingram’s 3PA per 100 last season), and he’s a far more efficient half-court scorer overall. Leonard has been at least the 70th percentile in points per shot every year of his career (and was 91st percentile last season); Ingram has only cracked that barrier twice, both times a half-decade ago.

Ingram is a good shotmaker. Leonard is elite. It’s not pretty, exactly. He’s a butcher, carving up defenders with precise brutality:

So, yeah, Leonard remains a killer. But he’s going into the final year of his contract and had made his preference for Toronto clear. What other team would’ve given up two unprotected firsts and a swap (which could convey if Leonard suffers a hardly unprecedented major injury next season) for a rental? Perhaps the price was higher than expected so Toronto could get off the remaining $82 million owed to similarly injury-prone Brandon Ingram, but they’ll also have to pay Kawhi. Given that Leonard waived his trade kicker (worth a whopping $8 million) to help make the Raptors’ finances work, expect a very generous extension even if Leonard’s season goes poorly from the jump.

What is Toronto’s best-case scenario? We’ve had eight straight years with a different NBA champion. As a contender maximalist, I’d begrudgingly give the Raptors a seat at the table (although it would be a cobweb-strewn folding chair I retrieved from the garage).

If Barnes can carry over his playoff performance, if Leonard can stay healthy, and if they can scavenge together enough high-level point guard play from the fiery Jamal Shead’s defense and streaky Quickley’s offense, the two-way upside here is actually pretty high. That’s a lot of ifs, and that’s before we get to the myriad Eastern teams roughly on par with or superior to Toronto: New York, Philly, Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Indiana, Boston, maybe Atlanta or Orlando or Washington.

Memories of Toronto’s 2019 championship still electrify the town. Now, the Raptors stand on a hill with a metal rod, listening to rolling thunder, hoping lightning strikes the same spot twice.

I’ve been poring over depth charts, trying to figure out how all the pieces fit. You stare at the same things long enough, and your brain gets a little kooky. So here are five lineups that probably wouldn’t work… but that I’d kick the tires on anyway.

Charlotte Hornets

Coby White/Brandon Miller/Kon Knueppel/Royce O’Neale/Naz Reid

Do you think there are too many three-pointers in the game today? Boy, do I have the lineup not for you.

Charlotte might have the deepest mob of mad bombers in the league. Just for fun, I want to see what happens if they max out the 2K shooting sliders.

Coby White is a career 37% shooter on high volume, and he might be the worst marksman on the court. Kon Knueppel put up the greatest rookie shooting season we’ve ever seen. Brandon Miller nailed 38% from deep on more than eight audacious attempts per game. Naz Reid has hit 38% himself over his last three seasons on excellent volume for a real big man, and Royce O’Neale has cracked 40% two years in a row (on mostly wide-open shots, but that’s okay!).

No, this group wouldn’t have much defense or paint penetration, and they might never get a rebound again. But this is the kind of five-out attack that forces offensive-minded coaches to change their sheets. Bring an umbrella; the forecast shows rain.

Or, maybe this fivesome would be a disaster! In a post-LaMelo world, the Hornets and coach Charles Lee have license — nay, have an imperative — to try anything and everything. Experimentation is key to future success with a young, talented team.

San Antonio Spurs

De’Aaron Fox/Steph Castle/Dylan Harper/Julian Champagnie/Victor Wembanyama

The De’Aaron Fox trade and subsequent max extension haven’t gone exactly according to plan. Sure, San Antonio didn’t know they were months away from drafting his inevitable replacement, the resplendent Dylan Harper, when they moved for Fox, but now they find themselves with a slightly awkward three-headed chimera in the backcourt.

Steph Castle and Dylan Harper are works in progress as primary ballhandlers and jump shooters, but both bring an immense amount of rim pressure, defense, and skill. Fox is the best “traditional” point guard of the three (for now), but plenty of people (myself included, at times) already want the Spurs to move on from him so Harper and Castle can spread their wings.

Pump the brakes, me. San Antonio won’t do anything rash. They were in the NBA Finals, after all, and could be even better this year. Coach Mitch Johnson did a fantastic job of staggering the three during the regular season, but I do want to see a few tweaks. For one thing, Harper needs more time as the actual ballhandler running pick-and-roll with Wembanyama.

For another, what happens if you play all three guys together?

Every two-man combination of the guards worked to varying degrees. Fox and Harper on, Castle off: +6.9 net rating. Fox and Castle on, Harper off: +11.0; Castle plus Harper, Fox off: +14.0.

But the trio only played 54 possessions all together last season, not nearly enough to prove viability one way or another.

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New York Knicks

Reason for optimism: Inner peace

The Knicks were a bit of a roller coaster last season. The introduction of a new coach, Mike Brown, was necessary but risky. Karl-Anthony Towns complained about his offensive role, the defense was inconsistent, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart were constant targets of frustrated fans demanding benchings, and the team’s depth was a question mark. Sure, they won the NBA Cup, but few saw that as likely to portend a championship.

Then, May and June happened. The Knicks went on a heater the likes of which we’ve rarely seen before. They also won the Larry O’B.

Winning puts the mind at ease.

Perhaps I’m underestimating the subtle evils of Pat Riley’s Disease of More, but it feels like New York comes into this season with a far greater understanding of who they are. More importantly, they believe in themselves. They know that they can outshine even those famous Madison Square Garden spotlights.

In the words of Mel Brooks, “It’s good to be the king.”

New Orleans Pelicans

Reason for optimism: A defensive renaissance

The Pelicans aren’t all that far removed from being an excellent defensive team, ranking eighth in points allowed per 100 possessions in 2023-24 and sixth the season before. While I don’t expect them to reach anything like those lofty heights, new coach Jamahl Mosley will bring a renewed emphasis on a defensive identity to a roster that felt directionless last season.

No, there aren’t many talented defenders on the roster, and no, the roster doesn’t make all that much sense. In fact, it’s so poorly constructed that former All-Defensive wing Herb Jones may need to be the team’s starting “center” just to get a couple of stops:

But regular-season defense is schemable. Sensible tactics and high effort can make almost any group of NBA-caliber players at least passable on that end, and Mosley, for all his flaws, will get the absolute most of his limited roster. While nobody is putting Trey Murphy, Saddiq Bey, or Zion Williamson on any Best Defender lists, none of those guys are awful, either — notably, Zion has substantially improved his defense over the years. There’s value in not having a zero on the floor (and that’s only somewhat a Jeremiah Fears joke).

Even after making a money-shaving trade the other day, the Pelicans are still unsettled. They’re hoping to get Fears and Derik Queen on track after up-and-down rookie campaigns, and they need to decide which of their vets to keep and which to shop around.

But while New Orleans won’t be good next year, they will be professional. That means something after two straight seasons spent mostly masquerading as clowns, and it’s most likely to show up on the defensive end.

If Charlotte can end last season ranked 11th on defense, anyone can.

Minnesota Timberwolves

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For reasons both justified and misguided, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has been under fire for some time now. So people were happy to spend the last year criticizing him for something that hadn’t happened yet.

Pundits and fans alike concluded that the length of the NBA’s investigation, the way that several reports from ESPN1 and others have framed this whole Aspiration thing as unlikely to be punished, and the timidity of Silver’s own words ("I would be reluctant to act if there was sort of a mere appearance of impropriety…”) assured a slap on the wrist at best.

Where’s David Stern when you need him? cried the masses. The Atlantic even wrote a whole article about how Silver’s aversion to conflict would doom him, a story that bordered on being a hit piece.

The famously harsh Stern sure would be proud of his protégé right now.

I had maintained a cautious optimism throughout this process that Silver would do more than rap some knuckles. The Olympus Mons-sized mountain of circumstantial evidence, including the complete inability of the Clippers to explain why multiple corporations would willingly pay Kawhi Leonard millions and millions of dollars to do almost literally nothing, beggars the belief that this was anything upfront and ethical.

The NBA’s freshly-dropped official report is explosive. I don’t know the legal definition of a “smoking gun,” but there sure are a lot of red-eyed pistols listening to Grateful Dead albums on repeat around here.

We won’t rehash all of the details, every little thing that doesn’t add up. The Athletic’s Mike Vorkunov, who has done a tremendous job reporting on this throughout the process, summarized it best:

Those deals, Wachtell Lipton lawyers said, stood out because they were signed at a time when sponsorship agreements had slowed across the industry in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, and were signed by companies that had never signed a deal of that magnitude — and have not since. The endorsement deals also asked little of Leonard and were not publicly announced…

The league’s report, which is chock-full of interesting and damning evidence2, indicated that witnesses at every company were questioned about these basic facts, and none of them had a satisfactory exculpatory answer. No one has yet come up with an excuse that doesn’t stink like last week’s salmon for even a single case, much less all four. Add in the numerous suspiciously timed and conspicuously valued payments from Ballmer and his partners to these corporations, and it’s all as clear as a sunny Laguna Beach afternoon.

To add a sh*t cherry to the top of the Clippers’ diarrhea sundae, the SEC (and we ain’t talking college football) is reportedly investigating Daktronics now for the peculiar financial engineering around this Leonard situation. This could become a bigger problem for all parties involved.

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As always, I’ve broken it up into three parts. We’ll do reverse alphabetical order to represent those of us who always had to line up last for lunch.

Washington Wizards

Reason for optimism: AJ Dybantsa, duh

The Wizards are here, and they’re going to be fun, dammit!

For all I’m interested in Trae Young and Anthony Davis’ yin-and-yang chemistry, a potential star turn from Alex Sarr, and the development of Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson and Will Riley, we’re here to see the Number One Pick.

Dybantsa averaged 25 points in two Summer League contests (don’t look at his field goal percentage), rampaging to the rim and drawing heaps of fouls. He won’t do nearly as much ballhandling this season as he did in Vegas, but expect the team to feature him heavily as a slashing attacker.

The league has been slavering over Dybantsa for years. Washington was the team lucky enough to nab him. Now, we’ll see what all the hype is about.

Utah Jazz

Reason for optimism: Winning basketball!

For the first time since Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert broke up, the Jazz will be actively trying to win basketball games for an entire season!

I’ve mentioned several times how excited I am to see what coach Will Hardy can whip up now that he’s unleashed. The Jazz’s offense promises arson, as Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr., and rookie Darryn Peterson are all threats to score off the catch or with the ball in their hands.

I’m not sure returning center Jusuf Nurkic, who went underappreciated last season and will do so again as soon as this sentence, is really capable of covering up the defensive holes left by the rest of the starting lineup. The flip side is that means we’ll have a lot of barnburners in Salt Lake City. Tell the SLC firefighters to prepare themselves.

And you know what? Now I feel guilty, so here’s a nice no-look hook pass from Nurk:

Utah is at the most purely fun part of a team’s trajectory: talented enough to win some games, young enough to forego expectations.

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Toronto Raptors

Reason for optimism: The Kawhi/Barnes/CMB frontcourt

I’m gonna go ahead and assume that the Kawhi Leonard/Brandon Ingram trade happens. All the reporting framing the NBA’s forthcoming cowardice around the Aspiration scandal makes me think that Leonard will get off scot-free, in which case the trade should consummate as planned.

Can Kawhi’s return to the Raptors herald another championship? If it does, it’ll be on the back of Toronto’s terrifying defensive trio in the frontcourt.

Scottie Barnes turned himself into a top-10 defender last season, particularly as a helper. Collin Murray-Boyles fills the gaps, doing a little bit of everything at a very high level. In almost 1,300 possessions, a not-insignificant amount, the Raptors allowed just 106.8 points per 100 possessions (96th percentile!) with Barnes and CMB sharing the floor.

Even past his prime, Leonard is still elite. Imagine adding The Klaw to that mix!

While Raptors’ front office fetish Jakob Poeltl will still play plenty of minutes in the middle, expect this grouping to close a whole lot of games in impressive fashion.

San Antonio Spurs

Reason for optimism: Tobias Harris (yes, really)

I’m jealous of Spurs fans. Their skies are bluer, the weather more temperate, the flowers more fragrant without triggering any allergies. Life is just a little bit sweeter when you’ve got Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, Steph Castle, and a stable of useful, productive veterans to back them up.

Harris is the newest stallion, and he gives the Spurs exactly what they didn’t have last year: a true power forward with the strength to bang down low and create for himself. If San Antonio needs pure shooting, they can always toggle the Julian Champagnie switch (Champagnie has long been one of my favorite role players in the league!), but there were times last year when the Spurs’ lack of big-man beef reverberated.

Harris’ defense, in particular, has become an underrated commodity. Playtype analysis is prone to small sample issues, but Harris allowed fewer points per possession in isolation than Bam Adebayo and fewer PPP on post-ups than Wendell Carter Jr. (who was last seen robbing Jalen Duren of millions of dollars). He’s legitimately good on that end, in addition to his more well-established scoring qualities.

The playoffs are all about optionality, and coach Mitch Johnson decided he didn’t like the taste of the Luke Kornet/Wemby French Vanilla coffee creamer. Consequently, the Spurs had only one pitch. While it was a hell of a fastball, you can’t throw nine innings without some kind of change-up. Harris won’t be important every night, but he’s a beloved locker-room leader who fills a needed on-court niche and makes San Antonio even more well-rounded.

Scary thought for the rest of the West!

Sacramento Kings

Reason for optimism: A brand new (old) team

People ignored Sacramento last season, for good reason. They were as bad as everyone expected except for when they got (relatively) hot near the end, hurting their lottery odds.

But part of the reason they were so abysmal was gawdawful health luck. Keegan Murray, Zach LaVine, and Domantas Sabonis combined to play just 81 games and exactly zero minutes together. That’s three-fifths of the projected starting lineup!

With those three back, the Kings have a far more competent supporting cast to put around tantalizing rookie point guard Darius Acuff. While I don’t expect Sacramento to be good, I’ve already predicted a Keegan Murray breakout year. If Murray gains some motion, Nique Clifford builds on an up-and-down rookie campaign (after the All-Star break, he averaged 13/5/4 while shooting 36% from deep) and Acuff fills up the stat sheet, Sactown could be a sneaky-decent League Pass team. Best case? LaVine and Sabonis build their trade value and change employers at the deadline, paving the way for a full-blown youth movement.

Also, Dylan Cardwell, another victim of the injury bug, will be back. Dylan Cardwell rules.

Portland Trail Blazers

Reason for optimism: Ja Morant

I don’t understand Portland’s roster, which is comprised entirely of point guards, centers, Toumani Camara, and Deni Avdija. I have to believe they make a rebalancing move at some point. And Blazers fans are sick and tired of hearing about their new owner’s thriftiness.

But if you want the glass-half-full view, it’s this: for all his myriad issues, there are maybe — maybe! — two NBA players more fun to watch play basketball than Ja Morant. Perhaps he’s left his troubled past behind. Perhaps a fresh start is what he needed to reinvigorate a career that seemed destined for superstardom not long ago.

The fit between Morant and Avdija might be a little weird, but both players like to run. Morant is an underrated passer, and Avdija will benefit from another ballhandler next to him. There could be some more-than-meets-the-eye magic here, especially if Damian Lillard can find anything resembling his previous All-Star form.

Again, I understand all the problems this roster has. But there’s undeniable upside, too. I don’t know how often it all comes together, but when it does, well. You watched Andor, right? (Do so, if you haven’t.) There’s a climactic scene in the first season that takes place under “The Eye of Aldhani,” which is essentially the universe’s most incredible meteor shower:

It’ll be like that.

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Phoenix Suns

Reason for optimism: Contract-year Jalen Green

The right answer here is Khaman Maluach, who looked like a completely new player in Summer League (and SL has never misled people before, no sirree).

But an underrated storyline outside of Phoenix: Jalen Green will be entering the last guaranteed year of his contract. He has a player option for 2027-28, but 20-point scorers in their mid-20s don’t opt into those unless something has gone dramatically awry.

Green kind of reminds me of Jonathan Kuminga in some ways. He came into the league wanting to be Kobe Bryant, but focused only on the shot-taking part of the equation. Every year since (at least, up until last year), he’s incrementally improved in other areas. If he’s ever going to put it together into a more appealing total package, though, it has to be this season. And it should be! Nothing focuses the mind quite like tens of millions of dollars.

Green was injured for much of last year. He’ll have to battle for playing time in a crowded guard rotation. But there aren’t a lot of NBA players capable of in-game athletic feats like this:

The Suns are hoping to win games right now. In a league without guaranteed victories anymore, thanks to the paucity of tanking teams, they’ll be hard-pressed to meet even last year’s modest success unless Green surpasses expectations.

Philadelphia 76ers

Reason for optimism: Joel Embiid, luxury item

The 76ers had such a wild offseason that they turned a former MVP into a Rolls-Royce: yeah, it’s super nice, but you don’t really need it to drop off the kids and go to the grocery store.

For the first time in a decade, the team’s night-to-night success won’t ride solely upon Embiid’s rickety knees, fragile orbital bones, and palsied face (man, this poor guy).

LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, and VJ Edgecombe provide a complementary mix of size and skills in the starting unit. Dean Wade, Dominick Barlow, Justin Edwards, and Adem Bona bring defensive energy off the bench, Anfernee Simons and rookie Labaron Philon are trebuchets, and if there’s anything left in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s tank, playing next to former teammate James will ignite it.

Who could have seen this roster overhaul coming? The 76ers are deeper at the top and the bottom of their roster than they have any right to be. Who knows, maybe Nick Nurse won’t run his starters out there for 40 minutes a night now. (Just kidding. He absolutely will.)

Orlando Magic

Reason for optimism: Sean Sweeney

While Jamahl Mosley has his strengths, it was clear that his time as the Big Kahuna in Orlando was over. Sweeney, the new coach, is regarded as one of the league’s brightest young minds. He comes over from San Antonio, hoping to bring some of the Spurs’ success with him.

Sweeney has challenges to navigate. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs are never healthy at the same time. Bam Adebayo shot more three-pointers per game last season than Desmond Bane, the rotation’s only great shooter (I didn’t expect to use Adebayo as a comparison point so often in this piece). The team lost its defensive identity last season.

But people in the league love Sweeney, and he has a lot to work with here. Fit issues can always be overcome by sheer talent. Sweeney can’t control health, but even with the roster’s lack of marksmanship, simply establishing a base offense with a little creativity would go a long way.

This might be the last, best chance to coax a superstar out of Banchero or Wagner. Sweeney has as good a shot as anyone.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Reason for optimism: A healthy Jalen Williams

The Thunder dominated the first third of last season without Jalen Williams and nearly made it back to the Finals while getting virtually nothing from their second-best player (and arguably less than that from their third, although that had nothing to do with health).

With a full summer under his belt to get his hamstrings right and his feet back under him, there’s no reason to think Williams can’t bounce back from his disastrous fourth season.

Can he regain his All-Defensive form? Is that pesky three-pointer coming back? How will he balance his offensive responsibilities with the emerging Ajay Mitchell and the Thunder’s many other mouths?

Questions remain, but I’m not particularly worried. As much of a disappointment as the Thunder’s postseason was, they were a few shots away from a dance with New York and are basically getting a brand-new All-NBA player back in the rotation. That’s a pretty solid reason for optimism.

I don’t have any ties to the team or area, nor am I a die-hard Anthony Edwards stan. But the Timberwolves remake themselves in fascinating fashion season after season; I can’t help but tune in.

Think of all the silly, cool, and crazy things this franchise has experienced in the last half-decade. A non-exhaustive list: There was Patrick Beverley jumping on the table, crying, and celebrating like he’d saved the world after a play-in win in 2022 (a move I still think was perfectly justified — acting like you’ve been there before is overrated). Then, it was the widely reviled, retroactively justified trade for Rudy Gobert (which I had to defend as “not as bad as Twitter thinks”) coming just months after Anthony Edwards claimed that Gobert “put no fear in my heart” as a rim protector.

That was the year in which Jaden McDaniels missed the entire (short) playoffs because he broke his hand after accidentally punching a concrete wall at the end of the regular season.

Then, it was the 2023-24 breakthrough, with Gobert winning DPOY, Naz Reid winning Sixth Man of the Year, and Anthony Edwards emerging as the All-NBA force we know him to be today. The Wolves shockingly swept the Kevin Durant/Devin Booker Suns in Round 1 after entering the series as underdogs and surmounted the hated Nuggets before falling to Luka Doncic’s Lobgoblins in the conference finals.

2024-25 brought the Randle-for-KAT swap, which culminated in another Western Conference Finals appearance (to say nothing of what it did for New York!). The run of on-court success covered up the team’s utter failure in trading up in the 2024 draft for Rob Dillingham, who was summarily jettisoned just halfway through his second season.

(None of this even touches upon multiple bizarre ownership changes. Longtime owner and chicken magnate Glen Taylor tried and failed to take-backsies a deal to sell the team to Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez before Lore flipped the team to Marc Stad a few days ago, just a year later. It’s all very weird.)

Finally, last season, the team beat the Nuggets yet again, but their ceiling became apparent in a disheartening second-round loss to San Antonio. “It just felt like we kind of ran out of bullets as this series went on,” coach Chris Finch said. Randle and Gobert combined for three points in the team’s 30-point Game 6 loss.

And so lead decision-maker Tim Connelly, never afraid to take risks, threw a couple of boulders into the pond.

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Out goes Randle, and out goes Reid. In comes LaMelo Ball, one of the more polarizing players in the NBA, to become the first alpha-level point guard Edwards has ever played with (no offense to the wizened sage, Mike Conley). In comes the unwanted and unloved Jonathan Kuminga to fill a suddenly vacant power forward slot.

The Wolves regain their status as dark-horse contenders, but more importantly (in my eyes), they become one of the league’s most watchable teams yet again.

Since we’ve already discussed Ball’s impact a little, let’s start with the most recent news. Kuminga joins on the taxpayer midlevel exception, a two-year deal for about $6 million annually with a player option in the second year. (The Wolves will likely move or stretch Josh Green to make the finances work.) In other words, for a second straight season, Kuminga decides to bet on himself, reportedly turning down a bigger offer from the Lakers — albeit one that may or may not have had as much guaranteed money or playing time attached to it.

There are two things to talk about here: Kuminga’s value as a player, and Kuminga’s fit as a starter.

First, the Wolves desperately needed an infusion of talent. Kuminga certainly brings that, along with a boatload of caveats. Kuminga believes (believed, maybe?) in an outdated path to greatness. He came into the league wanting to be a ball-in-hand, heads-down scorer, but the league doesn’t reward that kind of play anymore unless you’re Giannis Antetokounmpo. Just ask Bennedict Mathurin and Cam Thomas, two other players strangled by restricted free agency and changing NBA fashions.

Kuminga’s entire young career so far has been spent balancing his instincts with both his own limitations and his employer’s needs. He’s a solid individual scorer; he’s not a great one. He also isn’t quite good enough at everything else, at least not yet, to earn the major payday he’s sought for so long.

Steve Kerr and Golden State prodded him to take several begrudging steps in the right direction: quicker decision-making, stiffer defense, and a growing acceptance of place. Kuminga particularly thrived in the open floor and as a canny cutter, learning from savvy vets like Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler. Ultimately, though, the relationship with the Warriors fractured too much to recover from.

Now, after a fine but ultimately shrug-worthy stint with the Hawks (who declined their team option on Kuminga and didn’t seem particularly interested in bringing him back) and a few months trying and failing to drum up interest in a bigger role and contract, Kuminga arrives in Minnesota at a price too low to ignore.

Let’s state the obvious: for six million dollars, Kuminga is absolutely worth a gamble. How will he fit? I’ve warmed to the idea as I’ve written this piece, particularly since Minnesota doesn’t have many palatable options. Obvious issues abound on offense. There is a lot of overlap in how Edwards and Kuminga mentally attack the game and a lot of overlap in the physical spaces that Kuminga and McDaniels occupy.

Edwards and LaMelo Ball are two of the league’s most prolific catapults, but the frontcourt of McDaniels, Kuminga, and Gobert combined averaged barely as many threes per 100 possessions (12.2) as Edwards did alone (11.5, although Ball’s 18.2 led the league!). Can they generate enough spacing to open up the driving lanes that Edwards, McDaniels, and Kuminga so desperately need?

McDaniels has shot 36% from deep in his career on mostly wide-open catch-and-shoots. Kuminga has shot somewhat more but less accurately. Still, neither has ever played with a three-point generator like LaMelo Ball.

Ball assisted on 235 three-pointers last season, tied with Deni Avdija for the fourth-most in the league.1 The Wolves don’t necessarily need both Kuminga and McDaniels to turn into overnight gunslingers, as long as at least one can increase their volume and/or accuracy to acceptable levels. I’m betting that Ball’s mere presence will do a lot of the hard work for the forwards.

Ball’s ballhandling and passing should also refine Anthony Edwards’ superstar skill set. Notably, Edwards shot a whopping 50% on catch-and-shoot threes last season on 2.3 attempts per game versus just 35% on six pull-ups per game. Balancing that lopsided see-saw will immediately enhance Edwards’ efficiency.

As fantastic as Edwards is, he’s never been a great or even good passer for his position. Now, the grunt work of walking the ball up the court (or running it up — more on that shortly) and getting guys into position won’t be his problem. He can focus on doing what he does best: getting buckets.

The Wolves will likely utilize more plays to get Edwards on the move, where his unique combination of shooting and athleticism puts trailing defenders into an impossible situation. Look how much harder he had to work here…

…than here:

The latter play is an anomaly. The Wolves don’t run nearly as many off-ball actions to get Edwards the rock in advantageous positions as you’d hope, mostly because they didn’t have someone else to handle the keys. ~40% of Edwards’ buckets over the last few seasons have been assisted, but they were typically basic drive-and-kicks or the occasional Gobert/Randle hand-off action. Coach Chris Finch should be able to draw up better set plays to simplify Edwards’ reads and give him more straightforward paths to both scoring and assisting. Imagine the highlight reels TikTokers will come up with for those sexy Ball-to-Edwards alley-oops!

Edwards isn’t the only ready for the feasting table. Gobert must be crying tears of joy; Ball will feed him unmissable dunk after unmissable dunk. Kuminga will finish the plays that Ball makes, too. He’s an outrageous athlete on both the horizontal and vertical planes, an obvious on-court stand-in for Charlotte’s Miles Bridges. Julius Randle’s biggest strength as a player was his willingness to use his battering-ram shoulders; Kuminga isn’t quite as strong as Randle, but he’s got moon-shoes:

Also like Randle, Kuminga has had too many moments where the ball dies when it reaches him. To his credit, he’s cut back on the truly awful jump shots, but you can tell he’s itching to prove himself. Staying disciplined is the key to Kuminga’s offensive success.

All told, I might be more intrigued by what Kuminga can do for the Wolves on the other end of the floor. Jaden McDaniels is a Certified Stopper™, but McDaniels is also an elite off-the-ball team defender, which Kuminga is not. Kuminga has the athleticism and instincts to be human handcuffs. What if the Wolves make Kuminga their 1A defender? That plays to his strengths while allowing McDaniels to either guard the other team’s second-best player or prowl the middle as a free safety.

Kuminga locking guys up like this…

Allows McDaniels to do this:

Letting McDaniels roam more could also ameliorate his greatest flaw, a tendency to stumble into foul trouble. Perhaps the Wolves have Kuminga do yeoman’s work for the first three quarters to save McDaniels’ stamina and fouls for crunch time?

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As for the rest of the cast, even after a career-best year, Ball is a bad and often lazy defender. Gobert is one of the best guardsmen of all time and remains elite even with Father Time nipping at his heels. Edwards, like Kuminga and Icarus, has moments where he reaches the sun but regularly melts back to inattentiveness when he’s not directly involved.

Still, the Wolves will be a good defense whenever the Stifle Tower is on the floor, and they could scrape the league’s ceiling at their peak.

Ball and Kuminga should also inject more pace into the team. Minnesota wasn’t a bad transition team last year (particularly turning on the jets after they traded for Ayo Dosunmu), but the newbies should turbocharge the engines. Ball’s offenses have never been as fast as you’d expect (the Hornets got out in transition about 15% of the time with Ball on the floor over the last two seasons, right at the median), but I suspect the Wolves will try to run like their namesake this season. Few players are as good at the hit-ahead as Ball, and few players glory in a transition bucket quite like Kuminga (to say nothing of Bones Hyland, Dosunmu, and Terrence Shannon Jr. cutting the backup unit’s brakes).

The Wolves still have plenty of question marks. Off the top of my head and in no particular order:

• Can Ball stay healthy? Okay, I lied, this is first because it’s the most important concern. He played 72 games last season while operating under a minutes restriction, which was his first time cracking even 50 games since the 2021-22 campaign.

• Can Ball build on last year’s career-best defensive effort to become something close to mediocre?

• Minnesota’s offense will be so different from prior years. Can they score at an acceptable level in the halfcourt with such limited frontcourt shooting?

• Similarly, can they finally overcome the crunch-time issues that consistently plague them? They haven’t had a positive net rating in the clutch in any of the last three seasons. That’s unacceptable for a team with a superstar scorer and talented coach (I’m a Finchie believer!).

• Do the Wolves have enough in reserve? Dosunmu was fantastic for Minnesota last season, draining threes, defending rabidly, and racing up and down the floor… but he can’t be a bench by himself. Bones Hyland resurrected his career in Prince’s homeland, but he’s about as unproven as a rising sixth-year player can be. Shannon and second-year center Joan Beringer have shown flashes, the same way a shooting star illuminates the night sky for approximately three seconds of a ten-hour period of darkness. I love Jaylen Clark’s defense in two-minute spurts. That’s it! Right now, it projects as the weakest bench of any team with even remote championship aspirations.

• Relatedly, will the injured Donte DiVincenzo recover from his torn Achilles in time to help the team? Will he even be on the team after the trade deadline?

• Can Kuminga play within himself?

• Can Kuminga lock in defensively?

• Kuminga, reportedly, will begin the season as a starter. But will he keep the job all year? And who closes games?

• How high is this team’s ceiling on defense?

That’s, um, a lot of questions for a team that wants to win a ring, and a disconcerting number directly relates to the team’s newest members. Ball and Kuminga (who averaged eight minutes per playoff game as a rookie in the Warriors’ 2022 championship run) have had limited postseason success. Meanwhile, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert have been the core of several strong playoff teams.

But not strong enough. No, the Wolves had stagnated. They were a known quantity, and wishing fervently for the collective to simply be better clearly wasn’t working. Minnesota needed a shot of epinephrine. Ball and Kuminga are a basketball adrenaline rush.

I’d argue that, in many ways, all those questions above are a good thing. It means this team has mystery. The Wolves need to answer a lot of those bullet points positively for this team to make the noise it wants to make, but my ears are still ringing from the Knicks’ wondrous run to a championship.

No matter how it all goes, I know one thing: I’ll be watching.

(Marc Stein has since reported that Brodie rebuffed two teams interested in signing him to a contract, which puts that tweet in a different context.)

Schwartz’s wrath — somewhat hilariously misplaced, given that his agency managed to nab DeAndre Jordan two guaranteed years from the New Orleans Pelicans and Khris Middleton three years and a partially-guaranteed $18 million from the Wizards, among others — did pique my curiosity. When viewed in the aggregate, did the league spend on vets in 2025-26? And was that money well-spent?

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The major deets1:

Cavs receive: Peyton Watson
Nuggets receive: 2031 Cavs first-round pick, a 2032 Kings second-round pick
Clippers receive: Max Strus

Let me acknowledge my biases up front: I’m a big-time Peyton Watson believer, and have been for several seasons. I love the way he provides legitimate weakside rim protection without sacrificing on-ball defense, I love the way his corner three-pointer has evolved (nearly fifty percent in his last two seasons, on admittedly small volume), and I love the flashes of on-ball chutzpah he showed while carrying the Nuggets for a brief stretch last season.

The analyst in me is compelled to mention that a lot of this is based on relatively low minutes, that he missed a huge chunk of last season with a dreaded hamstring injury, that his actual self-creation skills were not as overwhelmingly effective as the propaganda (*cough, cough*) would have you believe… and that he might not actually be that much better than Cleveland’s rising third-year wing Jaylon Tyson?

I don’t care. The Cavaliers desperately needed a better perimeter defender who could also contribute offensively. Watson is at his best guarding quick ballhandlers, so he can take on the other team’s point guard with aplomb. He’s got excellent lateral quickness and a seven-foot wingspan, allowing him to pterodactyl smaller mice and apex predators alike:

Few players this side of Derrick White have as many where-the-hell-did-he-come-from blocks:

Watson isn’t a perfect defensive player (he can be prone to over-helping, and he’s so thin!), but he’s very good and very versatile — a huge plus for a Cavs team with little positional flexibility up and down the roster.

Offensively, whatever nits you want to pluck from last year’s fur, Watson proved he’s more than capable of being the fourth option on most nights. The fit next to Mobley and Allen won’t be perfectly snug. Watson will need to up his three-point volume — 4.5 per 75 possessions is a below-average number, nearly two fewer than what Tyson was jacking up and less than half of what we’ve seen from Max Strus in the past. But if the accuracy remains as high as it’s been (39% on 333 attempts over the last two seasons), defenses will respect him with even a modest uptick.

I’m a fan of what Tyson provided as a shooter, passer, and offensive rebounder last season, and Watson won’t likely match him in those categories. Strus has a psychotic edge the occasionally soft Cavaliers need, and he’s an absolute gunslinger.

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