1 stat explaining every first-round series

With zero discussion of three-point variance!

Gregg Popovich (get well soon!) once famously noted that after a game, “The first thing you look at is the threes. If you made threes and the other team didn't, you win. You don't even look at the rebounds or the turnovers or how much transition D was involved. You don't even care."

Popovich was (probably) exaggerating, but the three-pointer is undoubtedly the most powerful explanatory variable in a game’s equation. But sometimes, it gets a liiiiitle boring to talk about, and it’s far from the only reason games go the way they do.

Today, as I do every year, I wanted to discuss a different statistic (or two or three) that partially explains why every series is the way it is.

Oklahoma City Thunder / Memphis Grizzlies (OKC wins 4-0)

7.5

The Thunder completed the sweep despite some token fight-back from an overmatched Grizzlies team in the last two games. Injuries to key ursine players were a storyline, but the Thunder’s ability to put a parking boot on the Grizzlies’ transition game was key.

After averaging 16.7 fast break points per game in the regular season, a top-10 mark, Memphis didn’t hit that number a single time in four playoff games, averaging just 7.5 fast break points in the series. They only had 15 in Games 1,2, and 4 combined. (That massive gap persists on a per-possession basis, too.)

People paid a lot of attention to the Thunder’s terrifying defensive performance, but OKC also did a fantastic job taking care of the ball themselves. They averaged just 10.5 turnovers per game, few of which were the live-ball kind that jumpstart the break.

Really, I could have picked any number of things to talk about in this space. Memphis isn’t a bad team, despite a late-season swoon! The Thunder are just that awesome, and they put the rest of the league on notice that they’re ready to make good on their historic regular season.

Indiana Pacers / Milwaukee Bucks (IND wins 4-1)

1.343

I don’t think people are giving the Pacers nearly enough credit as a legitimately dangerous and good playoff team. They play with funk, Tyrese Haliburton is rounding into peak form right when I was starting to think he’d never find it again, and the team’s depth shone compared to Milwaukee’s.

But nowhere was there a bigger advantage than on the sidelines, where coach Rick Carlisle ran rings around Bucks head honcho Doc Rivers. The clearest example? The Milwaukee Bucks had 74 possessions that Synergy lists as after a time-out (this includes any prolonged stoppage of play, such as at the end of quarters). In those 74 possessions, they averaged just 0.959 points — 14th out of the 16 playoff teams.

The Pacers, meanwhile, averaged an outrageous 1.343 points in 70 possessions — first by a mile.

Would this have held up in a bigger sample? The teams were about the same in ATO efficiency during the regular season, but there’s something to be said for customizing your game plan for opponents. Carlisle teams have a long history of overperforming in the playoffs; Rivers-led squads, uh, not so much (although I love the way he tells it).

Rivers never found a particularly coherent defensive game plan and took far too long to pull the trigger on Brook Lopez, Kyle Kuzma, and Taurean Prince, three vets who looked slow and ineffective against the hyperspeed Pacers.

Meanwhile, Carlisle coaxed big minutes out of Jarace Walker and TJ McConnell, sat my beloved Ben Sheppard when it was clear there was no good matchup for him, and even found ways to get Tyrese Haliburton rolling to the basket — often by going straight at an exhausted Giannis Antetokounmpo, which also removed Antetokounmpo as a help defender:

Much of the discourse surrounding this series has centered on the Bucks and their shortcomings. That’s not fair to Indiana. Cleveland will be a heavy favorite in Round 2, but they should be wary of what Carlisle can cook up.

Houston Rockets / Golden State Warriors (GS leads 3-1)

35

Houston has left 35 points on the table by going an astonishingly bad 60/95 (63.2%) from the free-throw line. If they had simply met their regular-season average of 74.8%, they’d have scored an extra 10 points. That’s in a series where the Texans have been outscored by a cumulative nine points.

(That’s a little bit of an oversimplification, given the difference in rotation minutes between the regular season and playoffs, but you get the point. Unlike the Rockets, who hate points.)

Free-throw shooting has been a huge storyline in this series. We’ve seen the Warriors use the hack-a-Shaq strategy on Steven Adams a few times. It hasn’t particularly worked in and of itself, but the mere threat of it was enough to chase Adams off the floor at the end of Game 4 despite his excellent performance to that point.

Adams was subbed out at 4:25 in the fourth quarter and came back at 1:55. In the intervening couple of minutes, the 98-97 Houston lead turned into a 101-104 deficit.

That’s the smallest of samples, but Golden State did outrebound Houston 4-1 in that stretch and make two layups. It’s not hard to imagine Adams changing those outcomes.

Houston has hardly looked inferior to Golden State this series, but they’ve predictably struggled to shoot the ball — only Memphis and Orlando have posted worse effective field goal percentages these playoffs. Each clanked charity shot is a thread in the regret-quilt Houston is weaving.

(If you want more on Houston’s free-throw struggles, N.B. Lindberg went into far greater detail on this topic at

Above the Break

. It’s a pretty gruesome read!)

Minnesota Timberwolves / Los Angeles Lakers (MIN leads 3-1)

+42.9