1(ish) stat explaining each first-round series

Towns' defense, Duren's disappearing act, Tatum's passing, and much more

I didn’t have much faith that this would be an exciting first round. Boy, was I wrong.

Sure, the Thunder swept the Suns, and San Antonio and Boston look primed to take care of their foes in a gentlemanly way. But each of the other series has had some serious drama.

Let’s take a peek at one stat (okay, you and I both know it’ll be a lot more than one) explaining each series so far.

Thunder 4, Suns 0

11.1%

In the regular season, the scrappy Phoenix Suns ranked third in the NBA in opponent turnover percentage, forcing mistakes on 16.5% of opposing possessions (just 0.3% less than the Thunder, in fact)!

It was to be a strength vs. strength matchup, as OKC led the league in taking care of the ball during the regular season. If the Suns had any hopes of an upset, it started with flustering Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. into uncharacteristic miscues.

Unfortunately, the Thunder are as unflusterable as John Tucker in a thong. As you can guess based on the series brevity, OKC laughed at Phoenix’s attempts to bother them. The Suns have turned OKC over on a paltry 11.1% of possessions, dead last of all playoff teams and well below the Thunder’s regular-season turnover rate of 12.4%. In other words, OKC’s strength only grew stronger when it came up against the Suns’ strongest statistical indicator.

That’s unfair, and a pretty bad sign for everyone else.

Magic 3, Pistons 1

Instead of a stat, let’s start with a GIF. This ought to come with an NSFW warning:

Good god. That scalping by Jamal Cain is the kind of violence usually reserved for HBO high-fantasy shows, but it perfectly encapsulates what’s happened in this series: Orlando is punking Jalen Duren and the Pistons.

There is plenty of blame and credit to go around for the way this series has unfolded. The Magic have played the ferocious brand of defense we’ve waited all year for. Cade Cunningham’s problems with turnovers and three-point shooting have reared their heads for the second straight playoffs. Daniss Jenkins is pounding the air out of the ball, Duncan Robinson can’t defend, and the team’s perimeter guys have struggled to make consistent offensive impacts. The lack of secondary ballhandling and shooting has predictably forced Cunningham to shoulder an Atlassian burden, one that’s ground him to dust by the end of these rock fights.

But Duren’s broad cannonballs were supposed to help carry some of that weight. Instead, his inability to impact the game stands as the series’ — and perhaps playoff’s — biggest individual disappointment.

He will garner some All-NBA votes this season, and he earned a lot of goodwill for carrying the team offensively when Cunningham was out with a collapsed lung. But after averaging 19.5 points per game in the regular season and looking like a true-blue offensive engine on the block, Duren is down to just 9.0 in four games against Orlando. He’s shooting a ghastly 41.7% from the field and has the highest turnover rate in the entire playoff field!

Orlando’s Wendell Carter Jr. is one of the few players in the league as strong as Duren. Unable to overpower Carter, Duren has proven shockingly incapable of affecting the game on offense in any other way, either. Every Duren possession feels like this:

I’ve seen people say that the Pistons aren’t doing a good enough job of delivering the ball to Duren, but I’ve also seen a guy who doesn’t really look like he wants the ball. Every time there’s a close-up on him, Duren has the thousand-yard stare of a guy who is disassociating for emotional protection.

Carter is even lighting up Duren on the glass, although some of that might be due to Duren’s need to step up and play rim protector against the Magic’s bevy of hard drivers.

Let’s be blunt. If Duren were simply playing below-average games instead of catastrophic ones, the Pistons could well be the team up 3-1 right now. The Magic have had their own scoring struggles, and Duren’s defense has been solid. But without any kind of offensive punch, Detroit is bringing silk gloves to a brass-knuckle fight.

Duren’s immense struggles this postseason could seriously cost him on a personal level, too. He bet on himself last offseason by refusing a contract extension. Up until this point, it looked like a genius move (and he’ll still earn a far bigger contract now no matter what happens). But any talk of a near-maximum contract has to be tabled for an offense-first guy who can’t crack double digits in the playoffs, right?

Lakers 3, Rockets 1

61.5%

No team has disappointed me more than the Houston Rockets. Even with Kevin Durant missing two games (in addition to the long-ago losses of Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams), their incomprehensible game plans, lackluster effort, and general discombobulation have flashed like a neon sign in a dark Memorial City strip mall.

It’s been particularly jarring when juxtaposed with the attention to detail that JJ Redick and his similarly injury-riddled team have shown. The Lakers have been the adults in the room.

Of course, it helps when you never miss a shot. LA has a middle-of-the-pack offensive rating thanks to poor offensive rebounding and a ton of turnovers, but they are leading all playoff teams with a whopping 61.5% true shooting. Shooting 51% from the field and 41% from deep (and that’s with going just 5-for-22 in Game 4) across four games will wallpaper over most flaws.

This isn’t pure luck, either. As I’ve noted several times already, Houston’s defense has mostly consisted of gambling for steals, confused finger-pointing, and frustrated shrugs. How many times has a defensive breakdown resulted in a Laker with enough time to sip a margarita before casually flicking the ball toward the goal?

I’ll tell you. In the regular season, 48.3% of the Lakers’ field goal attempts were listed as “open” or “wide open”. In these four games against the Rockets, a young, athletic team that should have no trouble keeping up with LA, that number has risen to 52.6%. That’s a huge jump, particularly given that Houston is ostensibly a defense-first team.

Down 3-1, Houston at least avoided a sweep with a big win on Sunday. But if they want to do more than that, they’ll have to start by forcing the Lakers to miss some shots.

Also, I’m feeling another outdated movie reference coming on. Here’s a bonus stat that made my head explode and reconstitute like Jeebs from Men In Black: