2024 NBA Playoffs First Round Mega Preview

A key question and an X-Factor for the six series we know, with 2,000 free words (and plenty more for paid subscribers)!

7 Los Angeles Lakers at 2 Denver Nuggets

Season series: 3-0 Nuggets

Let’s not sugarcoat it: it’s tough sledding for the Lakers here. The Nuggets swept LA in last year’s Western Conference semis. Although many of those games were close, none of this year’s regular season matchups were particularly tight.

Personally, I’ve felt a sense of Nuggets inevitability all season. Despite hot stretches from other teams, I can’t make a credible case for any Western foe to really push Denver in a seven-game series, much less a good-not-great Lakers team.

However, the Lakers do have a few reasons for hope.

Key Question: Can anyone stop Jamal Murray?

Jokic has dominated the Lakers, but Jokic dominates everyone. You try your best to slow him down, but there’s only so much you can do. So if the Lakers want to be successful, they must figure out a way to limit Jamal Murray.

Murray lit Crypto.com Arena on fire in last year’s playoffs with 33 points per game for the series on astounding 53/41/95 percent shooting splits. He hasn’t slipped much in this year’s regular season, in which Murray has averaged 25 points with high efficiency. If the Lakers also give up a triple-double to Jokic every night, well, that’s not survivable.

Dennis Schroder was Murray’s primary defender in last year’s playoffs, but he’s no longer with the team. This season, it’s been chiefly Taurean Prince (and a bit of Austin Reaves, who was utterly annihilated). Prince tries, but he’s simply not slithery enough to keep up with Murray around an endless array of screens.

In a pinch, Murray can also hunt D’Angelo Russell. Russell has become too important to the Lakers’ offense to be played off the floor this year, so he’ll have to compete harder than this:

Gabe Vincent deserves a shot. Vincent doesn’t have the length an ideal Murray defender would possess, but he’s familiar with Murray from last year’s Finals. Vincent is a tenacious on-ball defender who will fight over screens and defend with physicality, and he held Murray to 16 points on 16 shots for Miami.

If Darvin Ham needs a break-glass-emergency option, he’ll probably turn to Cam Reddish if he’s healthy. But I’d also think about trying Max Christie. Ham hasn’t felt much inclination to play Christie this season, but he’s a solid defender who will at least give Murray a look he hasn’t seen much. Here, he’s able to stick with Murray through an array of moves before directing him into the help defense:

Christie won’t be a 30-minute solution, but every little bit helps.

X-Factor: D’Angelo Russell

Russell was impossibly bad against the Nuggets last season, shooting 2-for-15 from deep for the series. Russell has seemingly cemented his place in the rotation, and he’s been better on both ends than last season. But nobody separates wheat from chaff better than Jokic. A matchup with the Nuggets is a quick way to determine if Russell has merely been on a heater or if he’s genuinely improved.

Russell is more than just a spot-up shooter. He’s had some success against the Nuggets running the pick-and-roll. I don’t have access to Second Spectrum data (if you do and can share, please let me know!), but it feels like the Russell-Lebron James pick-and-roll has led to some good opportunities for LA in these matchups, particularly when it gets James the ball downhill. At 39 years old, James has looked a bit more passive this season, surveying the defense from afar rather than attacking off the dribble; rolling to the basket forces him into action.

Russell also can’t shoot as badly as he did last season, so the other end holds more questions. Jokic’s superpower is annihilating the opposing defense’s weakest link, and he and Murray took turns destroying Russell last season.

Russell has had some defensive moments in the past, particularly as a free safety for the Timberwolves a few seasons ago. But the Nuggets abuse every slip-up. There can be no lapses, or he’ll get back-cut into another dimension:

There are reasons for Lakers fans to hope for a different outcome in this series. James is presumably healthier (we’ll see about Davis and his back). There’s more continuity with Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves in the lineup, and the Nuggets bench is, once again, untested and unproven.

However, Russell’s performance is the most critical non-superstar storyline in the series.

6 Phoenix Suns at 3 Minnesota Timberwolves

Season series: 3-0 Suns

Yikes. What an unpleasant way to end a triumphant season for Minnesota. They heroically sustained their success through Karl-Anthony Towns’ injury and fought for the one seed until the last day of the season… to end up the three seed and matched with a Suns team that is the worst possible opponent for them. The playoffs are cruel.

Not all is lost, of course. Anthony Edwards is always a reason for hope, and the Wolves have some adjustments they can make.

Key Question: Can Minnesota’s defense adapt?

This is the most crucial question of the entire matchup. The Wolves’ defense has been utterly and completely dominant all season, and the soon-to-be 4x Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, is the biggest reason why. He turns the paint into a no-fly zone, but it's not just about that. Having Gobert around to protect their backs allows Minny’s perimeter defenders to take away three-point opportunities, too (the Wolves allow the sixth-lowest three-point attempt rate in the league).

You know who doesn’t give a hoot about threes and layups? One of the greatest midrange shooting teams ever (relatively speaking).

The Suns shoot the second-most midranges and make them at the second-highest percentage. Minnesota, in general, is fantastic at guarding midranges, too (second-best FG% allowed), but that hasn’t always held up in their meetings with the Suns’ bright stars.

Gobert will be uniquely tested against Phoenix, as he’ll need to emerge higher from his lair to challenge Phoenix’s bevy of midrange ballerinos. But the Wolves might have to swallow hard and think about playing smaller. KAT has been better on defense this year, but he’s been torched repeatedly in this series. A smaller, more agile defender like Nickeil Alexander-Walker might be a better option.

If the Wolves insist on going big (which also maximizes their offense), they might have to station Naz Reid or Towns on Durant and live with the consequences. Putting either big on Grayson Allen has inevitably resulted in breakdowns after Allen’s bevy of screens.

X-Factor: Grayson Allen

This is an obvious answer, but that doesn’t make it less accurate. If Allen averages 19 points against the Wolves this series, as he’s done in the three games they’ve played, Minnesota doesn’t have a chance.

Allen shot 60% from three against Minny (!!), but he was even more impressive cooking the eggs of a scrambling defense. Every pick-and-roll with Allen caused chaos, and he was decisive and aggressive in attacking the Wolves’ confused closeouts. This is death:

Beal (usually guarded by Mike Conley, whom he seems to take personal pleasure in tormenting) seems primed for a big series, and Durant is Durant. Booker has had some difficulties against the Wolves’ size, but he’s a threat for 40 points any night. If Allen is also dropping 20, Minnesota doesn’t have much of a shot.

I love it when teams zag against common tactics. I celebrated the Wolves’ success going big this season. Unfortunately, Phoenix is the team most able to force the Wolves to turn away from their strengths.

5 Dallas Mavericks at 4 Los Angeles Clippers

Season series: 2-1 Clippers

This will be a fun one. The Clippers beat the Mavericks in the playoffs twice in the last few seasons, but while the main characters are the same (Luka Doncic, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard), the surrounding cast is wildly different. The Mavericks may be the deeper team now.

Excitement over Doncic’s brilliance overshadows that the Clippers won the season series despite somewhat meh individual performances from their stars. But all three meetings were in 2023; none have occurred since the Mavericks remade their rotation at the trade deadline.

You’d think that the Clippers have the bodies to guard Doncic as well as anyone, but he’s always tortured Los Angeles. And he might not even be the biggest issue in this series for LAC.

Key Question: Does Kawhi Leonard show up?

Leonard has had some monster performances against the Mavs, but it’s not certain if he’ll play in Game 1, much less be 100% for the series.

Leonard missed the Clippers’ last eight games with knee inflammation. As of this writing, he is limited in practice, although coach Ty Lue has said the Clippers are preparing as if he’ll play.

LA still has some firepower without Leonard, but his defense will be missed, particularly at the end of games on Doncic. If he can’t go, the downstream effects are obviously tremendous. Terance Mann and (gasp!) James Harden will have to spend even more time on Doncic. Paul George will likely have to simultaneously carry the scoring burden and limit Kyrie Irving.

The Mavs were one of the league’s hottest teams at the end of the season, pairing a newly fearsome defense with the prodigious scoring of Doncic and Irving. The Clippers with Leonard would’ve been a fantastic, relatively even matchup. The Clippers without Leonard could be in trouble.

X-Factor: James Harden

In some ways, labeling someone an X-Factor can be an almost derogatory term. Stars are expected to do their job in the playoffs; that’s why they are stars. So a series often comes down to which role players exceed or fall short of expectations; those players are labeled X-Factors.

That’s where we’re at with Harden. He is a role player with star upside, and if he doesn’t outplay the X-Factor label (particularly if Leonard is limited), the Mavs could jump out to a quick start in this series.

Harden’s season-long stats (16.6 points, 8.5 assists per game on 43% shooting from the field and 38% from deep) are fine. But Harden has had an erratic playoff history, to put it kindly, and he’ll need to surpass those numbers for the Clippers to puncture Dallas’ stout defense.

If Leonard is hampered, Harden will have to initiate more offense like he used to: pick-and-rolls, drive-and-kicks, and forcing his way to the free-throw line for easy points. If Leonard is good to go, Harden will instead have to excel in his new role: orchestrating the offense more traditionally (i.e., feeding Leonard and George) and feasting on catch-and-shoot and other secondary opportunities.

No one will mistake Harden for prime Klay Thompson, but he’s become a little better — a tiny bit! — at moving off the ball to create easier passing lanes:

His 2.1 catch-and-shoot threes per game this season are his most since his early Houston days, and he’s canning 39% of them.

Ty Lue is generally a patient playoff coach. He likes to give his team a chance to play better before making adjustments. But there’s a very real chance Harden gets benched down the stretch of games for Russell Westbrook, who provides more defensive resistance and forceful pace, or sharpshooter Norm Powell.

The Clippers traded for Harden to push them over the top. He had an uneven but successful-ish regular season campaign as the Clippers ho-hummed their way to a 51-31 record and the four seed. Now, though, is when they need him. And when has relying upon Harden ever been a bad idea?

7 Philadelphia 76ers at 2 New York Knicks

Season series: 3-1 New York

Don’t look too hard at the season series; Embiid missed three of those games, among other absences for both teams.

The 76ers were not inspiring in their play-in victory over a Miami team without several key pieces and half a Jimmy Butler. Despite all the drama about teams wanting to avoid Philadelphia, they’d better get Embiid healthy, and fast, or this could be a surprisingly easy win for New York.

But if Embiid can recuperate, then Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau cannot continue to use the same lineups and defenses repeatedly and expect winning results.

Key Question: Can Thibodeau get weird?

Coach Thibs is famous for developing intricate, well-thought-out gameplans — and then sticking to them even as playoff opponents adjust and evolve. Playoff basketball is a game of whack-a-mole, requiring quick reactions and agile thinking. Instead, Thibodeau is content to sit and wait at the same hole for one specific rodent.