3 stats for haters

Want to dump on your friend's favorite team? Here's a glass of ice-cold water.

Hello! Welcome to All-Star Weekend. No real ball games until late next week, but we do have the Rising Stars Challenge, Skills Challenge, Dunk Contest, 3-Point Contest (I hate not writing “three-point”), and the rejiggered All-Star Game happening tonight through Sunday.

For my thoughts on and predictions for All-Star Weekend, check out the (free!) article I wrote for Locked On Network, in which I discuss the format changes and pick a stone-cold lock for the Skills Challenge.

To tide my dear readers over, I wrote a column about three interesting trends I’d noticed. It wasn’t until I was wrapping up that I realized all three were uncharacteristically negative, so consider this one for the haters.

See you all on Tuesday with something a little more optimistic (probably)!

12%

Just 12% of Tyrese Haliburton’s shots have come at the rim, the lowest of his career and one of the weakest marks of any high-volume scorer. Even that 12% is a step up from the ~10% he attempted early in the year.

The only major rotation players below him are three-point specialists like AJ Green, Klay Thompson, and Malik Beasley or ancient caretaker point guards like Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, and Mike Conley.

The still-just-24-year-old Haliburton initiates far more offense than the former crew and shouldn’t be anywhere near ready to join the latter.

Hamstring and back problems have hindered Haliburton, both of which will sap a player’s burst. And that burst is well and truly sapped. Haliburton has never been lightning quick, but he used to be able to leverage the threat of his three-pointer and long strides to get by defenders more regularly:

That was early last year, when Haliburton was one of the league’s best all-around offensive engines. However, current-day Haliburton has no acceleration. He can’t turn the corner on defenders, forcing awkward shots while moving perpendicular to the rim:

Haliburton’s lack of a first step shows in other ways, too. Despite touching the ball more often this year, he is driving less. Anecdotally, it feels like more of his assists are of the rote swing-swing around the perimeter kind rather than him creating an advantage and capitalizing on it with his passing: his potential assists are down from 17.8 last season to just 14.5 this season.

Too often, Haliburton hands the ball off to Andrew Nembhard or Pascal Siakam and idly waits on the wing for somebody else to do stuff. Some of this is schematic, as Haliburton is one of the team’s better floor-spacers, but some of it is by necessity.

Whether it’s injuries, defensive adjustments, a change in role, or something else, I’m not sure that the uber-elite Haliburton we saw at the beginning of last year (15-ish months ago!) is ever coming back.

The present version of Haliburton is still a good player. He’s still a joyful playmaker and respected long-range gunner (although it’s worth noting that defenses haven’t been quite as terrified of him shooting as before) who never turns the ball over. But his lackluster defense (ahem, outside of those famous three-point blocks) and inconsistent ability to break down a defense are not what Pacers fans want to see with Hali still in the first year of a five-year supermax contract that sees him eating up nearly 30% of the salary cap. (The chase for All-NBA and that contract last year may have exacerbated his injuries; he had to play 65 games to qualify and noticeably limped through the second half of last season).

Despite playing nearly every game this season, Haliburton didn’t earn All-Star status in a crowded Eastern Conference backcourt.

Perhaps this is just lingering health stuff that can get better with time and rest, but there’s a strong possibility that this is the new Haliburton. It might not matter too much; the Pacers are good! Thanks to a surprisingly feisty defense, the team is fourth in the East. Every once in a while, and more often of late, Haliburton will wiggle past a defender and make a high-arcing finger roll, giving hope that last year’s best version is still hiding in him somewhere. And we know the Pacers’ playstyle has given top-tier teams trouble before.

But it’s hard to watch Indiana play and not worry about Haliburton’s future, no matter what percentage he’s shooting from deep.

12.4

The Denver Nuggets are surging up the Western standings after carrying an eight-game winning streak into the All-Star break. Michael Porter Jr. has been on fire, Jokic has been dropping triple-doubles left and right, and Jamal Murray has finally looked hearty and healthy, playing noticeably harder on both sides. Murray even dropped 55 in his most recent game against a Blazers team that had been nearly as hot until they ran into Denver.

The problem?