8-ish thoughts on 8 Series

The Warriors' biggest strength, Milwaukee's transition defense, and parallel turnovers in a classic series

With a game or two in the books for every series, I wanted to scratch out some quick thoughts on what we’ve seen so far. Let’s skip the lengthy intro; I’ve got enough words below as it is.

But before I forget, I wrote a piece for HoopsHype describing how NBA defensive tactics have evolved over the decades, accompanied by GIFs of some commonly seen modern strategies. Social media seemed to like it (Nate Duncan even endorsed the piece!), so if you’re interested in learning about how defense has changed over time, check it out here.

Golden State Warriors 1, Houston Rockets 0

Game 1: GSW 95, HOU 85

The Rockets can’t shoot jumpers and heavily rely upon cleaning up their misses for points, while the Warriors, despite their diminutive size, have led the league in opponent rim deterrence four years in a row. Could Houston utilize their height, athleticism, and offensive rebounding to convert some point-blank shots? Or would Golden State successfully keep them out of the paint?

Game 1 went decidedly in the Californians’ favor.

The Warriors have a famously tight defensive shell, backlined by Jimmy Butler (one of the best off-ball defenders of his generation) and Draymond Green (one of the best off-ball defenders of all time). They are really tough to penetrate, and Houston broke their nutcracker trying to make a dent in the multitude of zone looks that Golden State threw at them. The Rockets converted just 60% of their shots at the rim, a poor figure.

Houston’s pathetic shooting plays right into the Warriors’ hands, particularly when they run out lineups with all three of Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams, and Amen Thompson, none of whom take shots from deep. We haven’t seen (a lack of) spacing like this in decades. Where is Sengun supposed to go?

That is far from the most egregious example; it looked like this every time down the court!

Of course, the Rockets are used to playing in phone booths; they can adjust. For example, there were several times that Adams had a mismatch on Steph Curry in the post that Houston wasn’t quick enough to take advantage of. Fred VanVleet bricked great look after great look, the team missed oodles of free throws, and there are ways to get Amen Thompson more involved. The trade-off for the poor shooting is superb offensive rebounding, and the Rockets did kill the Warriors on the glass (45% OREB rate!).

Houston will score more points in this series, but Golden State faithful have to be encouraged that they were able to survive all those offensive rebounds and hold the Rockets to a breathtakingly bad 95.5 offensive rating.

The Warriors’ trio of Butler, Green, and Steph Curry punishes inexperienced and/or bad off-ball defenders in a uniquely cruel way; will coach Ime Udoka trust more offensive-minded players like rookie Reed Sheppard or Cam Whitmore to help jumpstart the attack? I’m skeptical, although desperation may force the issue if Houston’s Game 2 is more of the same.

Oklahoma City Thunder 1, Memphis Grizzlies 0

Game 1: OKC 131, MEM 80

Oklahoma City spared no Easter mercy for a hapless and helpless Memphis team that looked terrified to share the court with the menacing Thunder defenders. It’s hard to overstate how bad this game was.

Memphis had 22 turnovers. 11 of the 12 players who logged a minute had at least one. The team couldn’t even start their sets without messing things up:

(Lu Dort, in particular, played as if he didn’t realize DPOY voting has ended. He was unscreenable and unshakeable. He finished with three steals, one block, and zero fouls.)

Memphis won’t play this badly again, but I feel for them in some respects. They’re a good team in a nightmare matchup against a motivated and epically dominant foe. Combine Game 1’s outcome with OKC’s season sweep of their Memphis rivals, and it’s really hard to find even the dimmest glimmer of a silver lining from one of the worst playoff beatdowns in history.

My only thought from this series so far: the Thunder sure look ready to fulfill the promise they’ve shown in the regular season.

Denver Nuggets 1, Los Angeles Clippers 1

Game 1: DEN 112, LAC 110
Game 2: LAC 105, DEN 102

This series has been a tale of two turnovers.

(That’s an oversimplification, naturally. But as a writer, I can’t help it. I’m struck by the parallelism, desperate to find symmetries and symbols wherever I can to find something fun to write about.)

First, I’m obligated to acknowledge just how much Russell Westbrook there was down the stretch of the first game, both good and evil (but just enough good to eke out the win). It made for a scintillating viewing experience.

However, the real storyline of that one was Kawhi Leonard’s uncharacteristic tentativeness.

Was it the altitude, combined with a 40+ minute load, after nearly a week off? Was it just the ebb flowing away from Leonard in a normal way? Whatever the reason, it felt like Leonard got lost in the Clippers’ shuffle. He ended with 22 points on 15 field goal attempts, only two assists, and a whopping seven turnovers, the last of which was shocking in its sloppiness and timidity:

Game 2 was a totally different story, as Leonard ramped up his decisiveness while compiling 39 points on 19 field goal attempts and five assists to go with just one miscue (despite a really good defensive effort from Aaron Gordon!). He buried the Nuggets under a hailstorm of deranged ten-foot daggers that stabbed fleshy bits time and time again:

This one also featured a prominent, ugly turnover at almost the exact same point in the game, although this time Nikola Jokic was the sinner:

Jokic, who didn’t rest a second in the second half, looked uncharacteristically exhausted, and it showed up in seven turnovers of his own and several missed free throws.

This series was destined to be a classic, and so far, it’s delivered. The only downside? Whoever staggers away from this fight upright will then have to face a well-rested band of bloodthirsty Thunder marauders. How’s that for a reward?

Minnesota Timberwolves 1, Los Angeles Lakers 0

Game 1: MIN 117, LAL 95

This was arguably the most surprising result of the first round, as the Wolves took control by halftime and never let up.

What struck me was how easy it all looked. Funny how seamlessly an offense can flow when a team shoots 50% (21-for-42) from deep, isn’t it?

Anthony Edwards didn’t have a great scoring night, but the stats undersell how excellently he played overall. With just a few exceptions, he took advantage of the Lakers to dissect the defense with simple but effective passes. He posted nine assists to just one turnover, looking in full command of the offense. I like seeing the playful, encouraging version of Edwards:

The Lakers had a big scoring night from Luka Doncic, but nobody else really came to play. LeBron James’ stats look moderately impressive, but whether it was due to his previous groin injury or just an off night, he never made a significant offensive impact on the game. Austin Reaves was bad defensively and lacked spark. The role players lived down to their potential, in stark contrast to their counterparts in Minnesota (particularly Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels, who were excellent).

I wasn’t sure how this series would go before it started, although I leaned Lakers. That’s still possible, but the path looks significantly thornier now. The Wolves will need to play worse (very plausible, given their fiery shooting in Game 1), but Los Angeles will also need to play much, much better.

Cleveland Cavaliers 1, Miami Heat 0

Game 1: CLE 121, MIA 100

I was startled by how unprepared Miami looked for the Cleveland offensive juggernaut.

It’s not that I thought Miami’s top-10 defense would stop the Cavs’ league-best attack. But to give up wide-open look after wide-open look in the second half is both a testament to Cleveland’s cleverness and a demerit to the Heat’s preparation.

It’s one thing to give up 30 points to Donovan Mitchell, who is capable of scoring against anyone (and had a wonderful night getting into the paint and finishing at the rim); it’s another to ignore Ty Jerome, a Sixth Man of the Year finalist and knockdown three-point shooter, on an inbounds play:

This has not been Erik Spoelstra’s best coaching year, and this was not Spoelstra’s best coaching performance. But the players also looked tired, perhaps a result of playing two road play-in games leading up to this match. The Cavs’ backcourt of Mitchell, Jerome, and Darius Garland pretty much did whatever they wanted as they eviscerated the Heat’s point of attack defense, particularly poor Tyler Herro.

Despite all that, Miami hung tough for the first 40-ish minutes of the game thanks to some hot early shooting. They have to button up the little things (things that Heat teams of old rarely missed!) if they want to shock the Cavs in Game 2. When facing a massive talent deficit, perfection is required — and even that might not be enough.

Boston Celtics 1, Orlando Magic 0

Game 1: BOS 103, ORL 86

Paolo Banchero was awesome, particularly given the utter disregard the Celtics had for most of his teammates. At times, it almost felt like Boston was in a triangle-and-two defense and siccing both roamers on him, and Banchero still manufactured bucket after bucket. Franz Wagner played terribly, but at least he tried to force the issue; the Magic’s third-leading scorer was Jonathan Isaac, who had just seven points off the bench.

Cory Joseph started 26 minutes and put up one field goal attempt, which he missed. Do you know how hard it is to play 26 minutes and attempt one shot?

It depresses me to harp on the Magic’s shooting struggles time after time, but nothing else matters until they address the problem. At least Houston can manufacture points on second chances and in transition.

On the other side, the Celtics did not play well. Even though everyone and their mama knew this would be a physical battle, they seemed taken aback by the Magic’s rabid effort at first. Thankfully, as they so often do, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard saved the day, combining to go 11-for-18 from deep.

There’s not a lot to say right now; this series will tell us far more about Orlando than Boston. Joe Mazzulla holding back the Celtics’ trainer and screaming at Jayson Tatum to “Get up!” as Tatum was writhing on the ground to draw a flagrant in pain after a hard foul (he seemed fine after the game) was darkly hilarious, though.

Indiana Pacers 1, Milwaukee Bucks 0

Game 1: IND 117, MIL 98

I noted in my preview that Giannis Antetokounmpo might average 40, and the Bucks could still lose in five. Through one game, that’s looking quite plausible.

Pascal Siakam tortured the Bucks, as he seemingly always does. Myles Turner punished Milwaukee’s drop defense with four triples, and Andrew Nembhard looked aggressive and confident, particularly during a first-quarter stretch where he got to the rim at will. Nembhard rose to the occasion last season when he was virtually the last healthy Pacer standing in the playoffs, but his regular season left me unsatisfied. I hope this can become a more regular occurrence:

Milwaukee’s transition defense was abominable this game, and the (hopefully soon!) return of Damian Lillard seems unlikely to help that particular aspect. Every time Giannis attacked, the Pacers ran. The rest of the Bucks consistently parted like the Red Sea; the Pacers averaged an astonishing 1.8 points per transition play.

Indiana could have won by even more. Tyrese Haliburton was virtually invisible as a scorer, missing all seven of his three-pointers (many of which were clean looks).

The Pacers are really good, and their quick-twitch style has proven surprisingly resilient against the best teams (they went 15-9 against top-10 squads this season). People are underestimating their ceiling.

I still can’t believe that Kyle Kuzma, who was supposed to be the Bucks’ big trade addition, put up a 22-trillion statline. That’s… less than ideal.

New York Knicks 1, Detroit Pistons 1

Game 1: NYK 123, DET 112
Game 2: DET 100, NYK 94

There has been a lot of interesting stuff in these two games, but we need to talk about the fourth quarters.

In both matches, the Pistons led by eight points going into the fourth, riding a physical defense to hard-fought leads. In Game 1, the Knicks got hot and melted Detroit like a cheap candle, riding a 21-0 run to take the victory. Piston youngsters made mistake after mistake, and New York took advantage.

Game 2 nearly followed the same script, as the Knicks chipped slowly but surely at the lead before tying it up at 94 apiece with just over a minute left. It felt like Detroit was letting another prime opportunity to steal a road victory slip through their fingers like so much sand.

Then, Dennis Schröder hit the biggest three-pointer in the last 17 years of Detroit basketball history, the Knicks couldn’t counter, and it was all over but the free throws.

Detroit has been the better team for most of these two games. They’re now going home with a split. If they can retain the Game 1 lessons they learned the hard way, they have a chance to take a big chomp out of the Big Apple.