A 2025 NBA conference finals preview

A key question and an X-Factor for every team

Man, these have been a heck of a playoffs.

Upsets, injuries, and buzzer-beaters took a hammer to our preconceived notions. When the brick dust settled, three of the top four seeds had fallen, with the Thunder barely surviving thanks to their blitzkrieg defense and some untimely Nuggets ailments.

We are guaranteed a seventh different NBA champion in the last seven years. Neither Oklahoma City (sorry, I’m not giving them the Seattle Supersonics' banner from 1979) nor Indiana has ever won an NBA championship, and the Knicks haven’t won since 1973. The Minnesota Timberwolves haven’t been to the Finals, although the city has seen success: The Minneapolis Lakers won three straight titles from 1952-54. I’m sure the average Minnetonka great-grandpa fondly remembers the George Mikan days.

Whatever happens, parity is here (for now; if OKC wins the title this year, it could be the start of a dynasty). In preparation for these unusual Conference Finals, here are key questions and X-Factors for every team.

3) New York Knicks vs. 4) Indiana Pacers

Season series: 2-1 Knicks

While the Pacers always had a chance against Cleveland, they were still heavy underdogs. I thought the Knicks’ biggest question was if they could steal a game from Boston at all. For these teams to meet in the conference finals (and for the second straight time in the postseason) is incredible, reviving what was once one of the league’s bitterest rivalries.

If styles make fights, this should be an epic donnybrook. The Knicks are Brunson-centric to the point that Karl-Anthony Towns, one of the greatest scoring big men of his generation, is often a bystander. Brunson’s 8.6 minutes of possession in the regular season led the league. Indiana, meanwhile, is spearheaded by Tyrese Haliburton, the point guard famous for getting off the ball as fast as possible — despite playing the same position as Brunson and ranking third in assists per game, he only had the ball for 5.7 minutes per game!

Yeah, I’m excited for this one.

IND Key Question: Can anyone stop Brunson?

I like Andrew Nembhard. You like Andrew Nembhard (probably). Everyone likes Andrew Nembhard!

Jalen Brunson especially likes Andrew Nembhard, because Nembhard — a borderline All-Defensive candidate — is physically incapable of doing a single thing to slow Brunson down.

Last year’s playoffs proved that. Brunson destroyed Nembhard repeatedly and viciously. The NBA’s tracking data says that Brunson shot 26-for-39 with Nembhard as the primary defender, and that’s excluding most of the times Brunson blew by him for a layup at the rim or drew a foul:

NBA tracking data is famously misleading, but if anything, those numbers feel generous to Nembhard. That’s not good.

Luckily, the Pacers have a different, better answer: Aaron Nesmith, who has more length to defend against another Brunson knife attack. Nesmith has acquitted himself well against Brunson but risks foul trouble if he’s the primary defender from the get-go.

There are also trickle-down effects to putting Nesmith on Brunson. Nembhard then will likely have to guard either Josh Hart or Mikal Bridges (with Tyrese Haliburton guarding the other). Nembhard can rove off Hart to muck up passing lanes and soft double Brunson — but it also leaves the Pacers vulnerable to Hart’s offensive rebounding and transition play, as Nembhard isn’t big enough to challenge at the rim or on the boards. Nembhard may be too small to contest Mikal Bridges when he gets into his midrange bag, too, although I’m more optimistic about that matchup for Indiana.

By necessity, Nembhard will still spend plenty of time guarding Brunson. He’ll need to shake off last year’s nightmare for Indiana to slow the Knicks’ superstar.

(This whole section makes it sound like poor Nembhard is a horrible defender, when really, he’s an excellent one. This is just a tough matchup for him, historically speaking. Then again, the Knicks looked like incompetent losers against the Celtics, historically speaking, and we saw how that turned out!)

IND X-Factor: Obi Toppin

I have never been a huge fan of Toppin, whom I consider one of the worst defenders in the NBA. But he’s also a one-man fast break on a team that loves to run, and he provides enough shooting juice to be a credible threat from the corners. He’s in the perfect situation for his skills.

The Pacers are one of the few teams that arguably have more shooting at the center position than the Boston Celtics (by the end of the Knicks/Celtics series, New York was barely acknowledging Kristaps Porzingis beyond the three-point line). Accuracy and aggressiveness from Toppin will be critical to nullifying Knicks’ big man Mitchell Robinson’s impact off the bench.

Robinson had an incredible series against Boston, eating up space, dominating the boards, and flying out to contest shooters. But Robinson is at his best in the paint. His job becomes much harder if Toppin and starting center Myles Turner consistently hit from outside, and Toppin can outrun him and every other New Yorker in transition:

Robinson brings his own strengths, namely, strength. He’ll abuse Toppin on the boards, so Indiana will have to watch the matchup of the backup bigs carefully to see how well Toppin can survive on his own out there.

Toppin will also run Karl-Anthony Towns ragged on pick-and-pops with Haliburton and Nembhard. Towns isn’t at his best in space, and he’s routinely slow to get out on above-the-break three-point shooters.

If Toppin has a good series against his former team, his current one will emerge victorious.

NYK Key Question: Can Towns dominate?