A tentative Free Agency Day 1

Damn you, Paul George!

There was plenty of interesting news during the NBA’s opening free agency hours, but minimal action. I’m writing this post just before midnight; this may be stale by the time you open your inbox (I hope not!). I have no doubt I’ll get a dozen Woj bombs right after sending this out.

But some things did happen, despite everyone’s disappointment. Here are my initial coffee-driven, blurry-eyed thoughts.

1) Paul George and Klay Thompson really are leaving!

Paul George has spent five years with the Los Angeles Clippers. Klay Thompson has been with the Golden State Warriors for 13. And both are parting ways in not-particularly-amicable fashion!

George is the best free agent available (LeBron James doesn’t count), and Thompson is still one of the best shooters in the league. However, the new CBA and its extreme cap restrictions have clearly scared the incumbent teams. It’s not all about the money, per se; it’s about the lack of flexibility once you’ve hit the first and second aprons.

If you’re confused by the “apron” terminology, you’re far from alone. Here is a good breakdown of what that means, taken from this excellent Ringer explainer by Howard Beck:

But there are plenty of teams with enough cap space or the ability to create enough cap space to sign these two useful players. George has already been heavily linked to the Philadelphia 76ers to the point that it feels like a foregone conclusion, while Thompson has several suitors, most notably the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers.

George is a huge get for the Sixers, but that roster has so many spots to fill it’s hard to judge the team right now. Thompson’s destination is less certain.

Most teams with cap space want at least one of those players but will miss out on both; that’s how math works. One, the Orlando Magic, decided to shoot their shot anyway by signing excellent 3-and-D guy Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a large contract — more on that below.

But until Thompson and George have put space pen to ink, everyone is holding their breath — just in case.

Once they sign, we’ll see more movement. But a few players did lock in their money, so I picked a handful I wanted to discuss.

2) Naji Marshall to the Mavericks for three years, $27M

Naji Marshall signed a three-year, $27M deal with the Dallas Mavericks, which almost certainly signals that they won’t bring back Derrick Jones Jr.

Marshall is a mean, rugged defender credibly capable of guarding twos, threes, and fours. He’ll likely take DJJ’s spot in the starting lineup. He doesn’t put up nearly enough threes (4.3 per 36 minutes last season), but he did shoot 39% on very small volume. This was an outlier shooting year for Marshall, and the Mavs are praying it’s real. Thankfully, the 26-year-old brings a little more to the table offensively than the similarly shot-challenged DJJ.

Marshall’s not the lob threat Jones Jr. is, but he’s a far better ballhandler and underrated passer. Passing isn’t an essential skill for role players in Dallas, but it’s hard not to see plays like this and get excited about what he can do in 4-on-3 situations when teams trap Luka Doncic:

The Mavericks already have a bunch of shaky-shooting role players, but Marshall is better on the ball and as a defender than the rest. If the shot recedes, he’ll still deserve playing time. If it’s even slightly authentic, this will be a steal of a term sheet. Frankly, I was sure someone would offer significantly more.

3) KCP to the Magic for three years, $66M

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the rare 3-and-D wing who is very good at both components. He can’t do too much else, but he’s won championships with two NBA teams by being one of the best role players in the league. For an Orlando team built on defense and desperate for shooting, it’s a great pickup.

I’m almost more interested in what this says about Jalen Suggs as the team’s point guard of the future. The Magic are clearly banking on more improvement from the rising fourth-year player, who shot a blistering 40% from deep last season on reasonable volume after struggling tremendously his first two seasons. Suggs doesn’t have to do too much on the ball, but last year’s 2.7 assists and 1.8 turnovers per game need to improve. Suggs will never be Chris Paul, and that’s fine; the Magic employ Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, two ballhandling, playmaking forwards. But Suggs can’t have a 1.5 assist:turnover ratio, either. Far too many plays last season left me baffled as to what would have happened even in a best-case scenario:

The Magic’s best passer, Markelle Fultz, is a free agent and unlikely to return to Orlando. Neither he nor the team’s second-year point guard, Anthony Black, can shoot a lick, limiting their value in the playoffs. Suggs will have the ball in his hands a lot, and he’ll need to do more with it. Last year brought tremendous growth from the shot, which was important; this year needs to bring more playmaking.

But regardless of what happens with Suggs, the Magic will be even more difficult to score against, and Caldwell-Pope is instantly the best shooter on the roster. KCP is an excellent addition to a team that can expect internal improvement from its young guys.

4) Chris Paul to the Spurs for one year, $11M

The Warriors never found a suitable trade partner, so they released CP3 to avoid paying him lots and lots of money. Paul immediately signed with the San Antonio Spurs.

It’s a great move for both sides. Chris Paul is 38 years old and a below-average NBA player at this point. But he’s still brilliant and an unbelievable passer, and he wants to play big minutes. San Antonio is one of the few spots where he can and should get that much burn.

I blasted the Spurs a few days ago for not putting complementary pieces around Wemby, but Paul should be a wonderful fit offensively (and Wembanyama can help make up for Paul’s plentiful defensive shortcomings).

The Spurs ran Jeremy Sochan at point guard for a month last season. He turned out merely to be a pretty good passer — for a power forward. Tre Jones, their incumbent starter, refuses to shoot three-pointers and is an average positional passer on his best day. From a pure floor-general perspective, Chris Paul is a massive upgrade. Paul will find Wembanyma for so many alley-oops and organize the offense for everyone else, too.

I don’t like Paul on the vast majority of NBA teams, but I think the Spurs are a fantastic place for him to land on a one-year deal. He’ll come in, teach Wembanyama the art of the pick-and-roll, and give San Antonio another season to figure out a long-term partner at point guard.

Quick Hitters

Obi Toppin returns to Indiana for four years, $60M

This feels like a lot of money to pay for a player benched for Jalen Smith (before the Pascal Siakam trade even happened!). Toppin fits in Indiana better than anywhere else in the league, and he both benefits from and amplifies their run-like-hell system. But he might be the worst non-guard defender in the NBA, and he’s never recorded a rebound in his career. $15 million per year is too rich for a backup big man who can’t perform a typical backup big man’s primary responsibilities, even for a place that struggles to attract free agents.

Nice piece of business for Toppin, though!

Jonas Valanciunas goes to Washington for three years, $30M

The NBA is a funny place. Certain players will never have much value to contending teams but still can play an important role on bad teams. Valanciunas, a giant, old-school mauler at center, falls into that category.

The best squads can’t play a plodding, not-particularly-stretchy big man. However, a rebuilding team like Washington needs some veterans to show their young guys what an NBA player looks like. I just talked about how I was worried Washington would become so bad that it wouldn’t be able even to evaluate talent, much less develop it. Having a safety net like Valanciunas, who will do the dirty work of post defense (not super effectively, but willingly) and rebounding and can manufacture some cheap post buckets, is very helpful.

He’ll also allow first-round pick Alex Sarr to play more power forward, which may help the French big man transition into the NBA more smoothly.

$30 million is a lot for Valanciunas, but Washington isn’t becoming a contender overnight. They’re in no rush. I like this deal for both sides.

Patrick Williams returns to Chicago for five years, $90M

Most of the press I’ve seen about this deal is positive, but I’m not so high on it. Williams has shot well from deep on a low volume, but he’s a bad two-point scorer (he legitimately might miss more dunks than anyone in the league; I’ll be looking into that this offseason) and an overrated, if capable, defender. He’s also battled injuries throughout his short career.

Williams may continue to grow in his fifth season and beyond, turning this contract into a bargain. It’s hardly an albatross, particularly as the cap rises. But right now, it’s an overpay in my eyes.

Mason Plumlee goes to Phoenix for a one-year minimum

Guess who had the best on/off point differential on the Phoenix Suns? Okay, it was Royce O’Neale, the midseason acquisition who just re-signed for four years and $44 million. His 3-and-D-and-a-little-more skill set was essential on a team with a redundancy of scorers but not much else.

But second-best was Jusuf Nurkic, the Suns’ starting center. Nurkic had a successful season, but make no mistake: that speaks as much to the woeful center depth chart behind him.

Plumlee is an energetic, capable backup big. He brings a bit of flair, and he’s equally likely to throw a sick pass as to toss the ball into the stands. He even inbounds the ball from the sideline on occasion, something you rarely see centers do.

He’ll make Phoenix just a tad more exciting to watch. It’s hard to imagine the Suns doing better for the money.