An NBA Cup Championship Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks tip off the second annual NBA Cup Final tonight. One of these teams will hoist an appropriately smaller banner at year’s end.

I understand the NBA Cup may not be everyone’s cup of Earl Grey. It’s tailor-made for someone like me, who watches an unhealthy amount of basketball and desperately craves novelty. But it has indisputably caused players to play harder, and that makes for compelling TV. As a reminder, there is more than $500K on the line for each winning player tonight; even at the NBA level, there are few players who wouldn’t feel their pulse quicken at the chance to earn that (and coaches get paid out a reward, too).

Even if the rest of the tournament, with its awkward logistics, weird courts (I love them, but my taste is questionable at best), and forced sense of pomp and circumstance, leaves you cold, the championship should be exciting. Who doesn’t want to watch two good teams go all out in a single-elimination game?

With that said, let’s tackle a key question and an X-Factor for each team.

Milwaukee Bucks

Key Question: Can they get Lillard going?

If I’m a Milwaukee fan, I’m verrrrry nervous about Lillard’s prospects tonight. Lillard has had an excellent season so far and looks more comfortable in Milwaukee than last year, but the Thunder were crafted in Sam Presti’s subterranean volcanic lair specifically to terrorize opposing ballhandlers. Lillard will be guarded at all times by Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, or Alex Caruso (heck, even Jalen Williams guarded him a lot during their sole meeting last year); that is out of the frying pan, past the fire, through a furnace, and straight into the ninth circle of hell.

Lillard had just one game as a Buck against the Thunder last year, and it was one of his worst: 11 points and five assists. More damning, he only got up 12 field goal attempts, as he was smothered at every turn.

To keep Lillard fresh, I’d prefer someone else take care of some of the standard ballhandling, like just getting it up to halfcourt, but the Bucks are not exactly overflowing with guys who can dribble. Andre Jackson Jr. will get a shot, but the Thunder will completely ignore him on defense; don’t expect to see much of him after the first quarter. There’s a decent chance we see a lot of Delon Wright just to provide some secondary dribbling and playmaking juice.

The good news: Lillard has had two solid games against Boston and Orlando recently, the only two teams that can match OKC’s perimeter defenders. He’s still a superstar on offense, even if he’s faded from his MVP-ballot days, and superstars can find ways to beat even the best defenses. Hartenstein will provide an attack avenue in the pick-and-roll, and Lillard should be able to get to his floater game:

The best news: The Bucks beat the Thunder by 25 points in March of last season, a game in which both teams were at or near full strength, despite Lillard’s struggles. It can be done.

It can be done, but it won’t be easy. These teams aren’t the same squads as last year. The Bucks are underdogs first and foremost because OKC’s defense features a bunch of baying hellhounds. For Milwaukee to pull the upset, Lillard must put on his monster-slaying gear and go to work.

X-Factor: Brook Lopez

Milwaukee will need big performances from a number of role players to win. Perhaps none is as pivotal as Lopez, the center who takes half his shots from deep.

The Thunder like to clog driving lanes and then sprint out to shooters. Their leonine athleticism and deep bench mean they cover more ground than any defense in the league. But despite arms that stretch like the ride lines at Disney World, OKC lacks height, as we’ll discuss more below. That means they’ll be less able to bother Brook Lopez’s shot when teammates drive and kick to their giant catapult on the perimeter. His success from outside could go a long way toward opening up the floor for Antetokounmpo and Lillard to attack.

On the other end, Lopez will have a slightly different challenge than usual. The Thunder are a bottom-five team in share of field goals attempted at the rim, with a heavier emphasis on the midrange than most teams. Lopez prefers to operate in a deep drop to take away layups and dunks, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and even opposing center Isaiah Hartenstein make hay in the liminal spaces between the restricted area and the three-point line. SGA has all sorts of funky midrange moves, Williams has a stop-and-pop jumper, and Hartenstein loves his little eight-foot floater, which he nails 57.1% of the time. Old school basketball enthusiasts, rejoice:

Few teams have as many reliable midrange weapons as the Thunder, and Lopez must adjust his defensive tendencies to avoid letting those guys feast. For all the talk about how the NBA lives and dies at the three-point line, this game could swing on who can get the most out of their in-between game.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Key Question: How do they stop the unstoppable?