I was curious, so I looked up where Reaves sits on the DARKO (a well-regarded all-in-one player impact stat) leaderboard. As it currently stands, players in his neighborhood are:
Cade Cunningham
Jalen Suggs
Isaiah Joe
Lonzo Ball
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Desmond Bane
Josh Okogie
Payton Pritchard
Bam Adebayo
I'm not exactly sure what this says? It's certainly a weird mix of players.
Some of them I'd consider solid "second best player on a championship team" players. A solid chunk of them are at least potential starters on a championship team. Some of them are first player off the bench types.
I think the general takeaway is that it's super team context-dependent whether or not $30M is workable for Reaves. 18% of the cap for those advanced stats seems feasible IMO.
For context, at that number he'd be making the same % of the cap as Derrick White, RJ Barrett, Draymond Green, Myles Turner, and Fred VanVleet are making this year.
These are a lot of numbers and statistics all to say that I really don't know if Reaves will get $30M or if you can win a title with him making $30M. I do think it's feasible though; I don't see the Rockets or Bucks as doomed in the title chase (VanVleet and Turner), and the Celtics pre-Tatum injury were at least in the conversation for a title.
To be clear, I think the Lakers are screwed here. I think it's silly to trade actual assets for the right to pay Reaves market value because of all of the above. I also think that his fit in the context of a title team isn't the cleanest, largely because of the defense and the fact that strong at the rim scoring matters less next to a ball-dominant superstar.
He does awesome in EPM, too. The advanced numbers always reward Reaves' level of volume + efficiency.
The market turning so aggressively against two-guards (Cam Thomas taking the QO, Anfernee Simons generally treated like flotsam) probably gives the Lakers more leverage than they realize they have; I'm not sure they'll use it.
I'd be nervous about paying Reaves that much, too, but I'm not sure they have any other good options. How could they replace him if he leaves?
I think Reaves’ playmaking is key here. The market bias against two-guards is likely pricing in their inability to scale down and increase efficiency when playing with better talent, which as you pointed out, Reaves can do. Guys in the Cam Thomas mold are too score first, which I don’t think is Reaves problem. If Reaves can continue playing effectively with the stars, while also being a solid floor general with bench units, his viability as an 18% of the cap guy makes a lot more sense. Is there a world where there’s a Houston trade (maybe with Tari Eason) if Reed Sheppard disappoints and VanVleet falls off a bit?
I don't hate the Houston trade, although I don't think Reaves is Udoka's kind of player. I certainly like Reaves better than Thomas or Anfernee Simons, and I think he has a stronger defensive track record than those guys, too.
I agree about Udoka. I do think there’s a possibility though where Houston may be over indexed on the “you can never have too many wings” truism, but a lot depends on how Sheppard and Amen progress. Your article made me think of Reaves as sort of a Walmart Ginobili, it’ll be interesting to see how he continues to grow in that tertiary/ off the bench role.
LA's commitment to Reaves makes sense, especially considering what they can get in return. However, I can't imagine Reaves and Doncic sharing the floor against Houston or OKC without getting exposed defensively. It would take a special unit around the two to stay afloat.
Luka has proved that he can take a team to the finals, and maybe if Reaves improves, he can be a more serviceable defender than Kyrie with offensive firepower.
I can't lie, I'm curious to see if Pelinka tries to shake things up at the deadline with Reaves -- I wouldn't be surprised if he's in trade rumors come late January.
Oh, he'll DEFINITELY be in trade rumors all season ha. But it'll be hard. Salary-matching in any trade for a decent player becomes problematic, although that's a solvable problem. And how many teams with good 3-and-D wings or rim-protecting centers need a player like Reaves?
He's not a perfect fit, but it's hard for me to see them doing better unless they're SURE they want to offload him, in which case, something is better than nothing.
Yeah, I was trying to think of potential suitors -- before you even get to solving the money problem, it's hard to imagine which teams he fits into in the basketball sense.
The three off the top of my head that might work -- Milwaukee, Dallas (depending on the deal), Memphis?
Milwaukee would be fun. Putting him next to Morant is a lot of the same problems as in LA. Dallas does make sense but hard to see them greenlighting ANOTHER trade with LA ha.
I like it a lot, actually. I'm not sure either fan base would want it, which means it's probably quite fair ha.
Contractually, Lively make like six or seven million less than AR, so they'd have to add some matching salary -- perhaps Jaden Hardy or Max Christie? But that's a solvable problem.
I was curious, so I looked up where Reaves sits on the DARKO (a well-regarded all-in-one player impact stat) leaderboard. As it currently stands, players in his neighborhood are:
Cade Cunningham
Jalen Suggs
Isaiah Joe
Lonzo Ball
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Desmond Bane
Josh Okogie
Payton Pritchard
Bam Adebayo
I'm not exactly sure what this says? It's certainly a weird mix of players.
Some of them I'd consider solid "second best player on a championship team" players. A solid chunk of them are at least potential starters on a championship team. Some of them are first player off the bench types.
I think the general takeaway is that it's super team context-dependent whether or not $30M is workable for Reaves. 18% of the cap for those advanced stats seems feasible IMO.
For context, at that number he'd be making the same % of the cap as Derrick White, RJ Barrett, Draymond Green, Myles Turner, and Fred VanVleet are making this year.
These are a lot of numbers and statistics all to say that I really don't know if Reaves will get $30M or if you can win a title with him making $30M. I do think it's feasible though; I don't see the Rockets or Bucks as doomed in the title chase (VanVleet and Turner), and the Celtics pre-Tatum injury were at least in the conversation for a title.
To be clear, I think the Lakers are screwed here. I think it's silly to trade actual assets for the right to pay Reaves market value because of all of the above. I also think that his fit in the context of a title team isn't the cleanest, largely because of the defense and the fact that strong at the rim scoring matters less next to a ball-dominant superstar.
He does awesome in EPM, too. The advanced numbers always reward Reaves' level of volume + efficiency.
The market turning so aggressively against two-guards (Cam Thomas taking the QO, Anfernee Simons generally treated like flotsam) probably gives the Lakers more leverage than they realize they have; I'm not sure they'll use it.
I'd be nervous about paying Reaves that much, too, but I'm not sure they have any other good options. How could they replace him if he leaves?
I think Reaves’ playmaking is key here. The market bias against two-guards is likely pricing in their inability to scale down and increase efficiency when playing with better talent, which as you pointed out, Reaves can do. Guys in the Cam Thomas mold are too score first, which I don’t think is Reaves problem. If Reaves can continue playing effectively with the stars, while also being a solid floor general with bench units, his viability as an 18% of the cap guy makes a lot more sense. Is there a world where there’s a Houston trade (maybe with Tari Eason) if Reed Sheppard disappoints and VanVleet falls off a bit?
I don't hate the Houston trade, although I don't think Reaves is Udoka's kind of player. I certainly like Reaves better than Thomas or Anfernee Simons, and I think he has a stronger defensive track record than those guys, too.
I agree about Udoka. I do think there’s a possibility though where Houston may be over indexed on the “you can never have too many wings” truism, but a lot depends on how Sheppard and Amen progress. Your article made me think of Reaves as sort of a Walmart Ginobili, it’ll be interesting to see how he continues to grow in that tertiary/ off the bench role.
I like the Walmart Ginobili comp quite a bit!
Little-s superstar is an excellent descriptor.
Thanks, Sherman!
LA's commitment to Reaves makes sense, especially considering what they can get in return. However, I can't imagine Reaves and Doncic sharing the floor against Houston or OKC without getting exposed defensively. It would take a special unit around the two to stay afloat.
Luka has proved that he can take a team to the finals, and maybe if Reaves improves, he can be a more serviceable defender than Kyrie with offensive firepower.
I can't lie, I'm curious to see if Pelinka tries to shake things up at the deadline with Reaves -- I wouldn't be surprised if he's in trade rumors come late January.
Oh, he'll DEFINITELY be in trade rumors all season ha. But it'll be hard. Salary-matching in any trade for a decent player becomes problematic, although that's a solvable problem. And how many teams with good 3-and-D wings or rim-protecting centers need a player like Reaves?
He's not a perfect fit, but it's hard for me to see them doing better unless they're SURE they want to offload him, in which case, something is better than nothing.
Yeah, I was trying to think of potential suitors -- before you even get to solving the money problem, it's hard to imagine which teams he fits into in the basketball sense.
The three off the top of my head that might work -- Milwaukee, Dallas (depending on the deal), Memphis?
Milwaukee would be fun. Putting him next to Morant is a lot of the same problems as in LA. Dallas does make sense but hard to see them greenlighting ANOTHER trade with LA ha.
Actually, would Reaves for Derek Lively not be a bit of a win-win? What do you guys think?
I like it a lot, actually. I'm not sure either fan base would want it, which means it's probably quite fair ha.
Contractually, Lively make like six or seven million less than AR, so they'd have to add some matching salary -- perhaps Jaden Hardy or Max Christie? But that's a solvable problem.