Can Duncan Robinson make the Most Improved ballot?

The old Internet axiom is that if an article is titled with a question, the answer’s always “no.” In your face, Internet!

We’re obviously less than 10 games into the season, so everything comes with a small sample warning sign. But the 32-year-old¹ Duncan Robinson has become one of the best players on one of the league’s best teams. If things hold remotely close to form, he’d deserve a spot on the short list for Most Improved Player.

Robinson has always been an unlikely NBA character. He started as a DIII collegiate player before transferring to Michigan, where he came off the bench for the Wolverines in their run to the 2018 title game. Undrafted and overlooked by most of the NBA, he latched onto the Heat. Role Player University was the perfect landing spot, and by his second year, Robinson was a full-time starter for a Miami Heat team that reached the Finals.

Despite Robinson’s beautiful stroke and consistently excellent percentages, he struggled with confidence.² Erik Spoelstra and company had to constantly remind him that his job was to shoot, whether he wanted to or not. Spoelstra once relayed a story about assistant coach Chris Quinn’s attempts to motivate Robinson:

"I yanked him for not shooting," Spoelstra said. "And Quinnie, he was unmerciful, just berating him if he turned down open shots. Just screaming at him, 'You're scared. What are you doing? You're not out there to set screens or be a ball mover.'"

The funny thing? Robinson is absolutely out there to set screens now. The fear Robinson puts in defenses as a shooter is the key to making him an effective screener. Coach JB Bickerstaff will use him as an on-ball screener for Cade Cunningham, but Robinson has been more involved this year as an off-ball screener bending the defense with motion and contact. This up-close-and-personal camera angle shows all the ways he gets involved:

Opponents know and respect Robinson’s screening ability, and so Bickerstaff has devised some fake screens for Duncan to run. Give the man an Oscar for his acting performances:

Philly’s Anfernee Simons defends that nearly perfectly, but nearly perfect ain’t nearly enough.

Robinson has been demonic from deep. In a season that’s seen a notable number of high-accuracy, high-volume guys, nobody quite matches Robinson’s 47.9% shooting on 9.1 deep attempts per game. And these aren’t easy shots; the occasionally gun-shy youngster from South Beach is gone. In his place stands a fierce marksman of supreme confidence and unerring aim, someone who will drill a triple in your eye and primal roar in your face. Double most players, and they pass out. Double Robinson, and he’ll simply sidestep the danger and render defenders helpless:

Bickerstaff and his assistants deserve credit for the myriad ways they’ve deployed Robinson this season. He’s particularly important to their ATO set plays, whether it’s moonwalking out of a screen traffic jam…

…or running around like his pants are on fire:

Out of the 123 players who have played at least 200 minutes as of this writing, Duncan is in the top 20 for distance run per minute.

It’s not like defenses don’t know this. Robinson is also fifth in the NBA’s gravity score, a measure of how much attention defenses are paying to a player. He’s a few spots below Steph Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and above Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Not bad company to keep!

Zooming in, the Ausar Thompson/Duncan Robinson combo has drawn some attention online recently. They had already developed good corner chemistry last season, where Thompson’s anti-gravity as a shooter turned him into a mean screener for Robinson. Frankly, I’d like to see Thompson improve further here. Almost every time, he slips or ghosts the screen, hoping for a pocket pass from Robinson. There are plenty of times he’d be better off actually laying the lumber on a trailing defender. Robinson is wide-open if Thompson holds the screen here:

This year, Detroit’s toyed more with the Thompson/Robinson game even above the break, finding new ways to bend the defense with the yin-and-yang pair.

Although there’s always room for improvement, it’s a symbiotic relationship. Robinson’s shooting helps activate Thompson offensively, and Thompson’s how’d-he-do-that defense helps cover up for Robinson’s lack thereof. Robinson’s guarding has always been a sore spot. He’s 6’8”, which helps, but he had a problem in Miami with incredibly stupid fouls in transition and when he got beat off the dribble (which was often). He has the lateral quickness of an amputee turtle, and even the slightest contact tented his arms in a way that the refs always call.

But in Detroit, he’s cut back on his worst habits. He still gets beat plenty, but he doesn’t stoop to frustrated reaches, and he’s figured out how to use his length to contest without slapping arms. He even blocked a Tyrese Maxey stepback jumper!

Robinson has tied his career-low foul rate, set last year, but he’s also more than doubled his steal rate, swiping nearly two balls per game. He’s also averaging a full deflection more per game than last season. Nobody is mixing him up with Thompson anytime soon, but Robinson has actually had some positive defensive moments this season! Anything he provides on that end is a bonus, and the Pistons are currently raking it in like Wall Street bankers.

To summarize, the Pistons are slightly better defensively with Robinson on the court than off — and they are the league’s best defense overall! A lot of that comes down to substitution patterns, but it at least proves Robinson can be an active part of a high-level unit on that end. Add in that Detroit’s offense scores a gobsmacking +16.7 points more per 100 possessions with Robinson on, and his overall impact is undeniable.

Look around. There aren’t many high-minute shooting specialists left in the NBA. Limitations typically push them into second units or situational usage. But Robinson warps the floor so much that he’s transcended that role, becoming an irreplaceable piece for one of the Association’s top teams. As we said at the top, he’s started for Finals-caliber teams before… but he’s never averaged 19 points per game while doing so.

This isn’t all just preposterously hot shooting. Given Robinson’s volume, if he shot merely 40% from deep going forward on the same volume, he’d still average about 17 points per game, well above his previous career high of 13.5 back in the bubble. Add in his improvements as a foul-drawer (he’s already earned 32 FTAs in eight games this season after getting just 110 in 72 games last year!) and on the defensive side, and we have what should be a textbook Most Improved candidate.

Through the season’s first stretch, Ty Jerome has that award locked up. And there are some other major contenders. Davion Mitchell has been one of the few bright spots for the scuffling Heat; Ajay Mitchell will score plenty of points for the injury-ravaged Thunder; Scottie Barnes has taken a leap. (I discount Dylan Harper as a highly touted second-year player, but some voters might not.) As the season progresses, other candidates will no doubt emerge. Robinson’s stats could dip slightly when Jalen Duren returns from injury, too.

But don’t sleep on Duncan Robinson. Defenses sure can’t.

Since you’re already shaking your head at me, let me leave you with one last intrusive thought: just a decade ago, Kyle Korver averaged 12.1 points per game for the Atlanta Hawks as a shooting specialist… and made the All-Star game.

1. The oldest player to win Most Improved Player was Darrell Armstrong, who was 30 years old during the season he won it (1998-1999).

2. I also recommend this stunning story from The Athletic about some of the personal tragedy Duncan and his family have endured.