Can Matas Buzelis win ROY?

An unwritten rule of the Internet is that anytime someone asks a yes/no question in the title, the answer is always negative.

Chicago Bulls’ rookie Matas Buzelis raised some eyebrows when asked about the Rookie of the Year race recently. “Most definitely, I would like to win that award, but I also want to win as many games as possible,” Buzelis said. “If you win the games, then you will be in that conversation, but I can make a run at it. I believe that.”

Well, the Bulls certainly haven’t been winning in the literal sense — they were on a six-game losing streak before a monstrous margin of victory against the sad-trombone 76ers last night. That’s fine! Chicago fans are glad to see the losses, hoping the team can land itself a half-decent draft slot. Crucially, however, the team’s willingness to put wins on the backburner has resulted in Buzelis spending more time cooking at the stove.

Now, let’s not bury the lede — I am following convention here. Buzelis will not win Rookie of the Year after spending most of the season buried on the bench. But his play since entering the rotation a few weeks ago has been downright electric.

The last 12 games have been by far the most consistent stretch of playing time in Buzelis’ career, as he’s cracked at least 19 minutes in every contest. Not coincidentally, it’s also been the best stretch of Buzelis’ season — hence the question posed to him in the opening paragraphs! Over that time frame, Buzelis has averaged 13.3 points (3rd amongst rookies), 3.7 rebounds, and a block while shooting 54% from the field and 38% from deep.

This is peak Buzelis (to this point), and those still aren’t Rookie of the Year numbers. But for Chicago faithful looking for a spark, Buzelis has shown tangible growth and a competitive streak that should bode well for his future.

Buzelis has an intriguing, if somewhat frustrating, skill set for his 6’9” (without shoes) height. The three-pointer has been a surprising success story so far, opening up avenues for his other skills to shine. He shot well as a high school senior but barely made a quarter of his triples in the G-League. In the NBA, Buzelis is at 35% on more than six attempts per 36 minutes, pulling with the confidence of a tug-of-war champion.

While we’re still in small sample size territory, one encouraging sign for Buzelis believers: he’s only shooting 31% on “wide open” threes, far below what he shoots when defenders are a bit closer. He’s the rare player who seemingly shoots better under pressure. Wide open shots comprise half his total; if he can approach league-average on those, his overall percentages will dramatically rise.

Nearly all of Buzelis’ triples are catch-and-shoots, although he’s starting to dabble with a step-back.

Buzelis’ willingness to fire has opened up some driving lanes. Put him in isolation against a slower defender, and he has enough shake to shimmy to the bucket:

Since his G-League days, Buzelis has loved to pull a flashy flyover gather, in which he brings the ball above the defender’s head to go by them. It was a far more popular move in the 2000s than it is today — elite ballhandlers now prefer to bring the ball lower to try and draw reaching fouls. While it may have fallen out of style, it sure looks good:

Buzelis also has a nifty behind-the-back move, but his overall functional ballhandling needs some tightening. He pushes the ball out too far in front of him, and he’s not quite shifty enough to get by quicker wings. Early in the season, he tried to compensate by going full speed on every play. Recently, however, he’s shown a little more patience and willingness to chip away at the defense:

Buzelis’ ballhandling also limits his playmaking potential. Billed as someone with some point-forward potential in the draft, he has a long way to go to make that a reality. The passing vision is there, but the technical skill isn’t. Right now, Buzelis has as many assists (36) as turnovers on the season — something he did in the G-League last year, too.

A more positive thing from the G-League that has carried over is Buzelis’ penchant for jams. He’s a beast in transition, feasting off outlet passes from Josh Giddey and Lonzo Ball, and an excellent cutter. Buzelis is already a natural at moving when a defender turns their head, creating runways out of parquet:

That said, like many young players, Buzelis is a poor finisher when he can’t dunk. He plows into guys looking for finger-rolls and bounces off of them. He needs to develop his layup craft to both convert shots and draw more fouls.

Strength and finishing are two things that young players usually develop with time. If Buzelis’ shot is real — and that’s not certain yet — he should eventually become a multifaceted wing weapon that can space the floor for [Future Star X] in numerous ways — I’m particularly intrigued by what I’ve seen of Buzelis as a roller. Buzelis won’t be a one-man offensive engine, but he could be the perfect complementary NOS tank.

Buzelis has a higher ceiling on defense, despite some quirks. He seems to think he’s holding up an invisible roof: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a defensive player keep his arms as straight up as often as the rookie. It’s a high school coach’s dream, but sometimes, it’s to a fault. Watch the beginning of this clip. Who defends Kevin Durant like this?

(He did the same thing against Paul George a few times last night.)

Buzelis’ activity level is absurd. He ranks near the top of the NBA in defensive ground covered per minute, and coach Billy Donovan has employed him in numerous ways. Sometimes, he’s guarding the other team’s best player, sliding well and forcing difficult shots over his long arms:

Other times, he’s playing free safety like a paler Robert Williams, showing early help and startling opponents who thought they had the advantage on their man. His long arms grant him a weird number of blocks on the way down:

The blocks do need more mention. Only Orlando’s Jonathan Isaac has a higher block rate among forwards. Buzelis has exquisite timing and a quicker-than-thought first jump. Aided by a fine recovery sense, Buzelis often turns seeming miscues into highlights:

The path for Buzelis to become an even stronger defender is clear. As we saw with his high hands, he has some technical foibles to clean up, ways to better utilize his length and improve his balance. Most notably, however, he simply needs to gain strength. He’s already added some muscle in the last 18 months, but there’s plenty of room for more. Jimmy Butler tossed him around like the ol’ pigskin in his first game as a Warrior, and Ausar Thompson used Buzelis as a human trampoline:

Buzelis will eventually become a versatile playmaking defender; he’s namechecked Andrei Kirilenko as an inspiration. By all accounts, Buzelis is a rabid film-watcher and hard worker; while Kirilenko was one-of-a-kind, his impact is a good goal for Buzelis to strive for.

Bulls coach Billy Donovan has been tough on Buzelis, particularly on the defensive end, where he’s given him a short leash throughout the season. “Yeah, the biggest growth I’ve seen with him is, quite honestly, he plays a lot harder now,” Donovan said. “Not that he didn’t play hard, but I don’t think he understood the level of intensity and energy he needs to raise himself up to.”

Usually, coach-speak like that makes me roll my eyes. However, Buzelis has notably improved as a closer-outer and has flashed a far better understanding of where to be, when to help, and when to stay home. Perhaps the tough-love approach has paid dividends.

With Zach LaVine gone, Chicago’s focus has fully turned toward the future. It’s hard to imagine Buzelis leaving the rotation anytime soon. He won’t win Rookie of the Year, but watching him chase the dream for the rest of the season will be fun.