Christmas Day can be a weird time of year, but Basketball Poetry is here to help you through it.
Whether you’re sitting on your hands because everything’s closed or hiding in the bathroom to get away from extended family, I’ve got your back. I moved my typical Friday post up a few days so that you, dear reader, would have Something To Do (if you so choose).
We’ve got five Christmas Day games today, and I can’t wait to watch them. To set the stage, here is one stat about each team I found worth discussing. (I tried to keep it positive to respect the holiday spirit.)
Merry Christmas to those who celebrate, and happy holidays to everyone else! I’ll see you all next week.
Golden State Warriors — 14.4%
If you ask Steve Kerr what the Warriors’ biggest bugbear has been over the last decade, I’d bet anything he’d say turnovers.
Since 2015-2016, the Warriors have never once finished in the top half of the league in turnover rate.
This year, however, they’ve been positively Scroogian by their incredibly low standards, turning it over 14.4% of the time, which is just the 13th-highest rate in the league! Huzzah!
Frankly, it can be hard to see this change when you watch games. Draymond Green is still a bottom-deciler for his position, and Steph Curry is individually posting his highest turnover rate since before Kerr took charge.
I love the joy Curry plays with, but what the f*** is this:
Luckily, Golden State’s supporting cast has been stingier with the ball this year, particularly the young bucks. Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Jonathan Kuminga are all turning it over less on a per-possession basis than last season, as is Andrew Wiggins.
It is worth noting that turnovers around the league are generally up so far — the Warriors only turned it over 14.3% of the time last season, which ended up being 22nd-best in the league. However, offenses typically get better and turn over less as the season progresses, and there’s no reason the Warriors should be an exception.
Golden State has plenty of other problems to fix, but it’s nice that they’ve at least partially addressed a big one.
Dallas Mavericks — 0.0
There was much handwringing about Klay Thompson’s addition to the Dallas Mavericks, particularly his defensive fit. His relatively poor shooting start to the year only intensified the discourse.
The internet forgets that Thompson is a slow starter every year; he’s up to 39% from three now on his typical enormous volume, and he’s cut some of the off-the-bounce midrangers that got him into trouble in his last few seasons in Golden State.
More importantly, the defense has held up with Thompson on the court! Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus rates Thompson a 0.0, suggesting he neither adds nor takes away from the team defensively. That’s hardly damning with faint praise, as Thompson graded out as a negative defender the last two seasons and was particularly poor last year. It was fair to wonder if age and injuries had sapped him of his effectiveness on that end.
Instead, Dallas lineups with Thompson are in the 77th percentile defensively, staying above the median even with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the floor with him.
Coach Jason Kidd has occasionally sat Klay down the stretch, but he hasn’t needed to bench him often. Thompson has been helpful on offense in all the predictable ways, and he’s been good enough defensively to stay on the floor.
Denver Nuggets — -1.3
Have the Nuggets started to figure out their bench problems?
It’s hard to tell; Jokic’s on/off numbers are still laughably immense, the kind of mind-boggling scale that breaks the brain when it tries to contemplate the size of the universe.
But for the first time, Jamal Murray has looked capable of carrying some of the load when Jokic rests. After lineups with Murry and without Jokic posted net ratings of -8.9 two years ago and -15.7 last year, this year, they’re only losing by -1.3 points per 100 possessions. That’s essentially breakeven.
Many of those lineups included Dario Saric, who has been out injured for weeks and looked cooked like a Christmas turkey for large stretches of the early season, but he’s supposed to return today. Opposing teams also can’t hit a three when Jokic rests and Murray plays, which could easily shift at any time. So it’s unclear what this will look like over a longer period, but Murray and his bench mobs don’t have to be good. They just can’t be execrable.
Minnesota Timberwolves — 5 of 15
The Wolves have used 15 different lineups for at least 40 possessions this season.
Five of those have a net rating of +20.0 or better.
Just one player is in all five lineups: Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Walker leads the team in on/off rating, but his impact transcends his running mates. He’s in killer lineups with Julius Randle and Edwards but also lineups without either. He can play next to Naz Reid or Rudy Gobert. Elite three-point shooting and lockdown defense combined with stocking stuffers like positional versatility and a little creativity fit in any situation!
Alexander-Walker typically comes off the bench and replaces Jaden McDaniels, who has struggled with his shot and been merely very good instead of great defensively. Alexander-Walker, on the other hand, is blasting threes at a career-high 43%. The deep shooting gets the headlines, but NAW is also hitting nearly 60% of his twos, a monster mark even on a small sample.
Alexander-Walker also brings a little secondary playmaking to the table, as this pretty assist to Gobert demonstrates:
The Wolves are searching for answers as they struggle to recapture last season’s magic. I can’t help thinking a few more NAW minutes would go a long way.