Deciphering the Denver Nuggets' bench

Can we construct a bench lineup that doesn't suck?

The Denver Nuggets have a bench problem.

Have had a bench problem, really, since a certain big man entered the conversation. Even if we assume Nikola Jokic has been the best player in basketball over the last few seasons (three MVPS and a championship should render that discussion moot), these on/off numbers still shock:

2023-24: +23.7 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court
2022-23: +24.8
2021-22: +19.5

In each of the last three years, Jokic has had the single highest on/off point differential in the Cleaning The Glass database (all numbers in this article are from CTG).

Why do the Nuggets dissolve like a house of cards in saltwater every time he hits the bench? Jokic’s unique talents might have something to do with it, of course. It’s hard to replicate a one-of-one. And certainly, the bench hasn’t been littered with talent. But other MVP candidates’ teams don’t fall off that badly without their star, even other players with singular skill sets:

Not even leaving Jamal Murray on the court to bolster the bench has helped. Jokic-less lineups with Murray have failed to do anything except sink slightly slower:

2023-24: -15.7 net rating
2022-23: -8.9

(Murray missed all of 2021-22 with injury.)

If we dive a little deeper, there wasn’t a single non-Jokic lineup that played more than 50 possessions with a positive net rating in last year’s regular season. We don’t need to dissect what ailed previous bench units, but a lack of on-ball playmaking besides Murray was a consistent theme. The bench has been almost universally terrible in any combination. Will this year’s group fare any better?

The Nugget have overhauled their lineup in several ways, both major and minor. They have a very odd assortment of parts, but they only need to find one or two groupings that can tread water in the regular season to give Jokic a break. As a reminder, the presumed starters are Jokic, Jamal Murray, dunktastic non-shooting power forward Aaron Gordon, sniper Michael Porter Jr., and third-year slasher Christian Braun, who will replace departed 3-and-Der Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Let’s review the four bench players who are rotation locks to start the season.

We have to start with Russell Westbrook. You don’t need me to talk much about Westbrook. I can’t imagine how he’ll fit next to Nikola Jokic besides the occasional forty-foot outlet pass, but this article isn’t about that. As an offensive initiator in place of Jokic, Westbrook still brings his iconic strengths and weaknesses.

He’s a turbo button, pushing a team into transition whether they’re ready for it or not, and even though he’s about to turn 36 (!!), he’s still elite at getting into the paint and spraying to waiting shooters. And after years of wild gambling and laziness on defense, Westbrook locked in on that end last season (really!). That’s great!

He just can’t shoot layups, free throws, or three-pointers, he loves to turn the ball over, and last year’s defense was an outlier that may or may not sustain. That’s not as great!

The Nuggets’ best bench player, Peyton Watson, shot 30% from the arc last season, exacerbating those problems. Watson brings his own talents. He is an anthropomorphic college rejection letter, coming out of nowhere to crush hopes and dreams:

With spidery limbs and Spider-Man’s quickness, Watson boasts the highest block rate of any player 6’8” or shorter. I can’t wait to see what he can do in a more significant role, as there is borderline All-Defensive team potential here. Offensively, though, the fit with Westbrook might be two sizes too small.

Luckily, the Nuggets upgraded their backup center spot with Dario Saric. Saric is a plus ballhandler, passer, and shooter for a center (38% from deep on more than six attempts per 36 minutes last year is no joke!), and he has a lot of superficial similarities to Jokic. How many other centers have the handle and vision for this?

Having Saric means the Nuggets can use many of their same offensive concepts even when Jokic is on the bench, which should help with offensive continuity.

The last of the likeliest bench rotation players is second-year wing Julian Strawther. Strawther has the quickest trigger-finger on the team (he even averaged more triples per 100 possessions than Michael Porter Jr.) but struggled to hit shots last year. He did show out in Summer League this season, however, knocking down nine of an astonishing 22 attempts in just two games.

If the accuracy comes along, Strawther will be a boon to both the starters and the reserves offensively. Defensively, he has a ways to go, but he at least has the length (6’7” height with a 6’10” wingspan) to compete. He’s a true floor-spacer on a team that desperately needs shooting, though, so he should get plenty of chances to prove himself.

Others who might get some minutes here and there (keep an eye on second-year forward Hunter Tyson and rookie guard Trey Alexander), but those four project to be the big-minute reserves right now.

That’s a weird mix! You have Westbrook, who is in a class by himself; Watson, a defensive savant with limited offensive game; Strawther, a pure shooter who hasn’t yet found the bottom of the net; and Saric, a knock-off Jokic who would be best with the ball in his hands but will instead be a spacer for Westbrook.

Can we cobble together a few different bench looks with that group and the starters to survive the non-Jokic minutes? Let’s try. Remember, the bar is to simply not get outscored by a billion points every time Jokic rests. We can do this.

1) Starters + Strawther

—Murray, Strawther, Braun, MPJ, Gordon

This lineup would have all four non-Jokic starters plus Julian Strawther, pushing Gordon to small-ball center. This, with the departed Justin Holiday in Strawther’s spot, was the Nuggets’ most-used non-Jokic lineup in the playoffs and actually outscored opponents (on a tiny sample), although it barely played during the regular season.

Gordon as a center opens up some intriguing offensive avenues, and between Strawther, Murray, and Porter Jr., there’s enough shooting here to survive Braun and Gordon’s broken rifles. Rebounding would be tricky, but as a small-minutes lineup, it could work. Maybe.

Odds of survival? Decent on paper, but frankly, anytime Murray was the lead ballhandler without Jokic in the regular season, things went starfruit-shaped. It also places too heavy a minutes burden on the starters to be an effective regular-season look; there’s a reason the Nuggets didn’t go to it until the playoffs. Let’s try again.

2) Westbrook + shooting

—Westbrook, Murray, Strawther, Porter Jr., Saric

This fivesome could score like gangbusters against second units, with Saric as a playmaking hub in the halfcourt and Westbrook pushing the pace in transition.

Westbrook will have ample cutting and driving lanes if teams station their center on him, as the other four players can all play on the perimeter, and Murray is far better as a combo guard than carrying the entire ballhandling load himself. He could play off of Saric similarly to how he does Jokic if Westbrook can make himself a cutting and post-up threat like Aaron Gordon with the starting group.

The group could really struggle to get stops, even against reserves. Despite position-appropriate height, this isn’t a beefy lineup, leaving them vulnerable on the boards (Westbrook is still a tremendous positional rebounder, which helps). This is about offense and offense only.

Odds of survival? For a bench group, it really would have a lot of firepower. I adore this lineup, even if there’s an 80/20 chance it’s a disaster.

3) The bench + MPJ

Westbrook, Strawther, MPJ, Watson, Saric

If the Nuggets want to run a real bench mob that doesn’t leave their starters drained bone-dry by the postseason, this is what I’d start with to open the season.

Westbrook and Saric provide playmaking juice to lubricate the offense’s wheels. Strawther and Porter Jr. will get up triples, and Watson is free to run in transition, cut hard, or make the occasional wide-open spot-up three-pointer.

Other lineups have more talent, and there are still defensive concerns (a lot is riding on Watson’s prodigious help-defender abilities). But the regular season is a grind, and keeping too many starters in to bolster bench units may wear them down.

This grouping has a little bit of everything. On the wrong nights, it might be not enough of anything, but on the right nights, it’s a well-rounded, energetic group that can just be meh. Remember, our bar isn’t to win; it’s to lose by a normal amount!

Odds of survival: If the defense holds up, pretty good! So, pretty bad. But I think this group will get a long look during the beginning of the season, because if any bench-heavy unit can tread water, it opens up more minutes for the superb starting group to stay intact, too.

4) The “We need this one”

Westbrook, Murray, MPJ, Gordon, Saric

By the end of last year, coach Mike Malone’s substitution patterns paired Jokic with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and put Murray, Porter Jr., and Gordon together with two bench players. Given Westbrook’s spacing constraints, Malone might well keep KCP replacement Christian Braun tied to Jokic, leaving Murray, Gordon, and MPJ to work with Westbrook and Saric.

This lineup blends Saric and Westbrook’s playmaking with the others’ finishing. Gordon will check the best wing and Westbrook the best guard. Like clumsy kittens, Murray, MPJ, and Saric just need to hang in there on defense.

Odds of survival: Eh. Depends on the chemistry Westbrook, Murray, and Saric can develop on offense. There’s talent here, but they’ll have to find some cohesion in a way previous Nuggets units never found. And Westbrook hasn’t been particularly cohesive in the past.

5): All defense, no shooting

Westbrook, Braun, Watson, Gordon, DeAndre Jordan

LOL. Good lord, this is a group of bricklayers, but perhaps they can put their hard hats on and go to work on the other end.

They could scrounge up points on the fastbreak (a Westbrook — Gordon — Braun — Watson quartet has a lot of promise there) and at the free throw line. More importantly, this unit won’t need to score much if the other team can’t score at all.

We won’t see much of this lineup for a number of reasons (namely, the shooting and the fact that DeAndre Jordan has reached the Udonis Haslem player-coach stage of his career), but I can dream.

Truly, if nothing else works, I’d consider giving this a shot — for the instant online reactions alone. Malone has a lot of strengths as a coach, but sadly, he isn’t much for experimentation, so I don’t expect to see a single possession of this group. Too bad.

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Can any of these lineups be respectably bad? On paper, it feels like there is some promise here. If nothing else, mathematically, it seems almost impossible for Jokic to be the league’s leader in on/off point differential for a fourth straight season, right?