Evan Mobley and the quiet agony of small improvements

Evan Mobley knows what you want him to do. I promise you, Evan Mobley knows.

There has been so much handwringing about Mobley and his failure to develop a three-point shot. The Cleveland Cavaliers had massive success for nearly two months by surrounding Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen with shooters; while the team has consistently won since Mobley’s return, most of the talk about the Cavs centers around the broken-jigsaw fit of having two non-shooting bigs in the starting lineup. It’s a fair conversation to have, but it also doesn’t paint the whole picture.

First, let us address the trumpeting elephant in the room: No, the hard-working Mobley has not miraculously turned into a sniper since his return from injury. After arthroscopic knee surgery to remove loose bodies in his knee, Mobley spent much of the time he missed talking about — and practicing — three-pointers. It hasn’t mattered.

Mobley is still reluctant to let it fly from behind the arc. I hand-tracked his triples this season (that’s not an “eat the tape” humblebrag; it took about three seconds). Mobley has only attempted 25 triples all season. 15 of those have come in the 12 games since Jan 29th, when Mobley returned from injury. So that’s an improvement, and he is technically 40% from deep overall! But 1.25 attempts per game does not change how defenses treat him, and it’s merely in line with his averages before this season.

Out of his 15 misfires, one was blocked, and one was a heave. Out of the remaining 13, nine were short. He seldom misses long, right, or left. Consistently missing short can be a product of nerves as much as poor shot biomechanics.

It’s a lizard-or-the-egg thing: Mobley doesn’t make many threes because he isn’t confident, but because he’s not confident, he doesn’t make many. It’s a vicious ouroboros. And as national discourse will let you know, this is a capital-P Problem when the team also starts a former All-Star at center in Jarrett Allen.

The Problem, laid out: Allen and Mobley are fantastic defensive players with real offensive skills, but the Cavs simply have trouble scoring when they share the court. Their 112.6 points per 100 possessions is in the 30th percentile for all lineups.

Interestingly, the team actually has a slightly worse offense when Mobley is the lone big (and gets outscored overall); meanwhile, when Allen is the center without Mobley on the court, the team scores a strong 120.3 points per 100 and blitzes teams by a substantial margin.

But the “Mobley = less spacing = less scoring” talk oversimplifies things. Most obviously, Allen/Mobley lineups get it back on the other end. Those lineups only allow 108 points per 100, 95th percentile for all lineups. That number stays true with Mitchell and Garland sharing the court, too.

For the season, lineups with all four of Mobley, Allen, Mitchell, and Garland have performed well, scoring at a median rate (yes, really) while locking teams down defensively. Those groups are winning their minutes by a comfortable, though not monstrous, margin. And the numbers are better since Mobley’s return on Jan 29th. As a team, the Cavs are eighth in offense and third in defense since then, even as Mobley and guard Darius Garland work their way back from injury.

Sure, the schedule has been bounce-house soft. But that stretch also included a win over the Clippers and a blowout of the Kings. The Cavs are 10-3 since Mobley’s return; two of those losses occurred when Donovan Mitchell, the team’s best player, was out sick, and the remaining loss was by two points.

So yes, Mobley’s offensive fit isn’t perfect next to Allen. But that doesn’t mean it can’t work, and to be honest, I’m not particularly interested in what they should do in the offseason just yet. The Cavs are here now, and they’re good. They’re second in the East! Mobley remains a big part of that, even if his injury has prevented him from showing his peak form.

The shot is one — very important! — thing, but Mobley has made a number of improvements to other parts of his game this season while battling the knee injury (and recovery process). The quiet things matter, too.

His already impressive defense has only gotten better. He demolishes foes one-on-one: opponents score just 0.64 points per possession against him on an island, even better than last year’s excellent showing. It’s almost the exact same number when ballhandlers attempt to test him in the pick-and-roll this season, again among the league’s best and a far better mark than last year’s .92 points per possession.

Mobley has become a master of verticality. He’s a quick jumper who blocks a shocking number of floaters, a shot specifically designed to get over the heads of defenders like Mobley before they can react:

He’s now one of the league’s best big-man close-out artists. He scuttles rapidly to the shooter like a tap-dancing crustacean, hands out but perfectly balanced. His length allows him to contest shooters (or at least face-guard) without having to leave his feet, allowing him to bottle up foolish attack attempts:

There have also been offensive improvements, even if they’re not the ones people want. In the playoffs last year, Mobley struggled in space against the New York Knicks. He’d get the ball on the short roll, and you could see the wheels turning in his head as he froze. The offense seemingly ground to a halt whenever he touched the rock.

This year, he’s become a more decisive passer. He’s averaging a career-high 3.2 assists per 36 minutes, which would be higher if the team’s offense didn’t have two ball-dominant guards (and fifth starter Max Strus and Allen are sneaky-good passers, too). There is future post-hub potential with Mobley. He’s more creative with his angles:

He can even run the occasional big-big pick-and-roll. This is catnip for basketball nerds (*bats at highlight, sneezes, falls asleep*):

When Mobley decides to attack (and he should attack more!), he’s not settling for half-hooks as often. A significant portion of his diet has shifted from floater range to right at the rack, boosting his shot profile. That holds even when he’s playing next to Allen. He’s putting a crowbar into the defense’s cracks and forcing just enough space for spinny finger-rolls and Stretch Armstrong dunks.

Mobley’s best offensive skill has become cutting, and he’s developed fantastic timing with Garland and Strus, especially:

Mobley’s rebounding has upgraded, too, and this isn’t simply a result of him playing more center (although that is the reason for his slight uptick in fouls). Weirdly, he actually has a higher rebounding rate as a power forward.

For what it’s worth, his free throw percentage has improved each year and currently sits at 73%, which could matter at the end of games.

In other words, Mobley is getting better. We all agree that Mobley would be significantly improved with a three-point shot. A more aggressive mindset would be welcome, too. Both would fix a lot of what ails Cleveland. But that shot ain’t coming this season, so the team needs to ensure that they put themselves in the best position to succeed with what they have. Mobley is polishing other aspects of his game to help.

The conversation reminds me of the talk around Bam Adebayo, whose subtle improvements over the years never seem to satisfy a fanbase constantly bleating for more, more, more. And to some extent, I get it. When a player’s ceiling is as high as Mobley’s, and the way to reach it is so obvious, how couldn’t fans get frustrated? And Mobley knows what people want from him. He’s trying; it’s just not clicking, yet.

Real-life basketball players aren’t NBA 2K simulacrums. You can’t spend real money to change a player’s DNA (although teams certainly try!). Mobley will likely earn a max rookie extension this summer, and he has limitless potential, particularly at center, surrounded by shooters. But evidence suggests he’s also not as good a center as Jarrett Allen right now; for the short term, the Cavs will continue staggering them as much as possible, hoping the defensive dominance when they do share the court outweighs any offensive sludginess. It’s not a perfect solution, but basketball doesn’t hand out too many of those. The Cavs are making lemonade out of some pretty good lemons.

There are still a few cards to play in the playoffs, too. Max Strus has almost always been the fifth wheel for the core four. Can we see some Dean Wade there, perhaps? Wade is bigger and stronger than Strus and likely a better positional defender (although Strus is feisty). He doesn’t have the quick trigger Strus does, but he is a more accurate shooter. It would be an interesting playoff wrinkle to run out bigger lineups that theoretically don’t sacrifice much shooting. Georges Niang in that spot creates a similar look, although Wade is the better player.

Between Strus, Wade, Niang, defensive ace Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert, and the emergence of super-shooter Sam Merrill, the Cavs aren’t limited to one or two role-player permutations. They can put out enough trees to fill a forest, opt to field four shooters, or go for a tenacious defensive lineup. We might even see Mobley, Allen, or Garland sit minutes in crunch time if the team gets desperate. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff will have to figure out how best to utilize the tools at his disposal (something he’s struggled with at times), but he’s got a full workbench to play with, at least.

The playoffs expose all. Last year, it showed that Mobley and the Cavs were too limited. This year’s team is deeper; more importantly, this year’s Mobley is even better. Whether the subtle improvements on the margins are enough to propel Cleveland deep into the spring will be a source of agony to Cavs fans until then.