First Round Mega-Preview

I don’t know about you all, but I sure have enjoyed the play-in tournament so far. Yesterday, I talked about some of the games on my podcast Good Take at RealGM Radio (which airs every Thursday! Make sure to subscribe at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else). The NBA postseason really is the best.

Tonight, the last two playoff series will be finalized. Let’s preview the ones we know the way we always do at Basketball Poetry. Say it with me now: Key Questions and X-Factors.

2) San Antonio Spurs vs. 7) Portland Trail Blazers

Season series: 2-1 Spurs

Somehow, Victor Wembanyama played 65 games this season (including the NBA Cup championship, which counts for award eligibility purposes and nothing else, for some reason?), and none of them were against Portland. Despite that, the Spurs still won the season series.

When even the most optimistic Blazers articles are titled things like “Five Reasons the Spurs Won’t Sweep,” you know things are rough.

Key Question: Can the Blazers score?

Some people are higher on Portland’s prospects than I am, to be fair. But I’ll be dumbfounded if this goes six games.

San Antonio has its flaws, but the Trail Blazers just aren’t particularly equipped to take advantage of them. While Portland has talented individual defenders, no one on the roster can guard Wembanyama. The Blazers are an elite offensive rebounding team, but the Spurs are the best defensive glass-cleaners in the game. And Portland’s shaky shooting (fourth in volume, 27th in three-point percentage) could be death with Wembanyama shutting down the paint.

Perhaps Deni Avdija can have another monstrous 40-point game, bludgeoning his way to the free throw line over and over, to carry Portland to one victory. Expecting more than that is a bridge too far.

I feel bad dismissing Portland out of hand. They’ve been the league’s second-best defense since March 1st, after all. But San Antonio has been the fifth-best defense in that timeframe, and they’ve also been the second-best offense. This simply isn’t a fair fight.

X-Factor: San Antonio’s shooting

The Spurs have actually been fine from beyond the arc this season, sitting almost exactly at the league median for both volume and accuracy. I don’t think even an extended cold streak from downtown will put their series in jeopardy — but it will tell us some interesting things about their future prospects.

As we’ve talked about many times, their spacing comes mostly from the frontcourt. But young guards Dylan Harper and Steph Castle have been hot from downtown of late — both are lacing well over 40% on below-average but non-zero volume since the All-Star break. If those two guys continue splashing, even just a couple of times per game, the Spurs won’t just win this series running away — they might win the whole damn thing.

3) Denver Nuggets vs. 6) Minnesota Timberwolves

Season series: 3-1 Nuggets

They say familiarity breeds contempt. They are right.

The Nuggets and Wolves have split two playoff series in the last three years, and the winner reached the Conference Finals each time. Intriguingly, the principal characters have remained pretty much the same in that timeframe, give or take a Julius Randle.

There’s also a lot of incestuous familiarity between the two franchises at all levels. Guard Bones Hyland was an outcast in Denver, but he’s a fan favorite in Minnesota. Timberwolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly helped build the Nuggets into who they are today, and Denver head coach David Adelman was a former assistant under his dad in Minny.

Most of the four matchups were pretty close (although the Nuggets had to deal with a variety of injuries and still came out on top). Denver is clearly the superior team, but they don’t have much margin for error against a Minnesota squad that knows what’s coming and has a history of rising to the playoff occasion. The iffy hamstrings of Aaron Gordon, Spencer Jones, and Peyton Watson make those margins even tighter — if those guys are compromised, the Wolves have a shot at an upset.

I think Denver should win this handily, but unlike in some of the other matchups, there are well-lit paths to a Timberwolves surprise.

Key Question: How do the Wolves guard Jokic?

This is always the question, right? The Wolves made relative hay back in 2024 by putting Karl-Anthony Towns on Jokic and letting Rudy Gobert encamp in the paint like a giant trapdoor spider, a strategy that became more and more popular for teams with two bigs.

Is Julius Randle up to that task?

Randle is one of the stronger power forwards in the league. At times in his career, he’s flashed quick hands, too. But he isn’t as big as Towns, and his defense has gotten slower and sloppier as he’s gotten older. The Wolves are relatively short on playmakers, too, and they can’t afford Randle to fall into foul trouble.

I didn’t see a ton of Randle on Jokic in the regular season. Certainly not enough to draw conclusions. Was that simply coach Chris Finch saving it for the playoffs? Or was it a reluctance born from pessimism?

Regardless, Jokic has averaged 36/15/11 against the Wolves this season, mostly coming at the expense of Rudy Gobert. Something has to change.

X-Factor: The Wolves’ bench

The Wolves have an athletic advantage at several positions. Anthony Edwards has traditionally dominated the Nuggets, and if Watson isn’t around to shadow him, he will continue to do so. Jaden McDaniels has thrived, too.

But for the Wolves to really apply some pressure, they’ll need their rocket-powered bench guys to fly up and down the court, punishing a bad Nugs transition defense. Bones Hyland flamed out in Denver, but has resurrected a career teetering on the edge of oblivion in Minnesota. Trade acquisition Ayo Dosunmu has provided the exact sort of north-south pace-pushing that the Wolves needed. Lineups with the two together have a +7.0 net rating and a transition attack in the 92nd percentile. Hyland is always looking for a hit-ahead to Dosunmu:

I’m confident they’ll swing at least one game. Can they do more than that?

4) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 5) Houston Rockets