Four Breakout Players

Collin Murray-Boyles, Donovan Clingan, and more

Writing about potential breakout players is always enjoyable. It’s all unicorns and rainbows, reasons why your favorite player is about to become even better.

Here’s where a superior writer would throw a twist. “Not so fast!” they might say. “These are all the reasons why these players will actually suck!”

But I ain’t that guy, not today. Sometimes, I just want unicorns and rainbows, a Lisa Frank-colored world. So let’s talk about some dudes I think have an opportunity to make a major leap next season.

And hey, if you want even more breakout candidates, listen or watch me talk with Hardwood Knocks’ Dan Favale, where we cover dang near 20 guys we like for next season (Spotify, YouTube, Apple Podcasts). It’s a beast of a podcast, so let my dulcet, definitely-not-nasally tones carry you through the weekend.

Also don’t forget to tap into RealGM, where Mo Dakhil, Jared Dubin, Wes Goldberg, and I all debate what makes for a great GM, coach, and star in today’s NBA(Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube). It’s a different vibe, so check that out.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Collin Murray-Boyles, Toronto Raptors

The Murray-Boyles breakout may have already happened, as the rookie averaged 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.4 stocks in last year’s exciting first-round loss to the Cavaliers. That’s probably on the high end of what I’d expect for his sophomore campaign, but there is plenty of room for improvement.

Murray-Boyles is a bit of a weird archetype. He’s a defense-first big-man tweener, listed at just 6’7” but carrying a sturdy 245 pounds. Defensively, he’s already very good. High motor and mobility, great hands, quick processing speed, etc. No real notes besides “get taller,” and that’s probably not super feasible.

Offensively, he makes his living as a roller and dunker-spot assassin, finishing off pocket passes and scrounging for offensive rebounds. He has no jump shot or in-between game to speak of right now, shooting just 38% in the short midrange (well below the league median) on very low volume. An injured thumb likely didn’t help matters.

But hope blooms. Murray-Boyles' floater hit its growth spurt in the playoffs. I had notes about it being one of the ugliest in the league during the regular season, then he seemingly didn’t miss it once in the postseason.

Regardless, it needs to be a consistent weapon, whether on the move or stationary. This simple shot, the Isaiah Hartenstein special, could unlock his offensive potential:

CMB already has a pretty decent face-up game and handle for his age and size, combining speed with dainty feet. He’s also a creative passer for a big, something he shares with teammate Scottie Barnes. Watch this play where he saves a Raptors’ possession with his quick mitts then casually drops a behind-the-back dime:

There’s such an odd mix of skill and size here; I love it. The Raptors want Murray-Boyles playing 30 minutes per night, a significant jump from the 22 he averaged as a rookie. “To do that, you cannot be one-dimensional,” said assistant Ivo Simovic, although I’m not sure that’s giving Murray-Boyles enough credit.

The Raptors will start Kawhi Leonard or Brandon Ingram at the three-spot next season, Scottie Barnes will be the power forward, and Jakob Poeltl will almost certainly be in the middle. Barnes and CMB’s lack of shooting means Murray-Boyles work best as a small-ball center, but the Dinos are heavily (and inexplicably) committed to Poeltl, who hasn’t even begun a three-year, $84 million extension he earned by being injured and mediocre.

Still, talent will find a way. CMB is simply too promising to keep off the court, financial politics be damned.

Jordan Miller, Los Angeles Clippers

I don’t blame you for not watching a lot of Clippers games last season, particularly after their gruesome, Chris-Paul-led start, but you did miss out on a surprising number of enjoyable moments after all that resolved itself.

At the top of my personal list? The quirky stylings of one Jordan Miller, whom I wrote briefly about for my All-Poetry team back in March. I couldn’t resist double-dipping.

Miller was First Team All-Summer-League two years in a row, and you can see why his game would translate so well there. He’s a magnificent one-on-one scorer. I want to describe him as a freight train going to the rim, but that isn’t quite right. He doesn’t use older-brother strength or a lightning first step to get there. Instead, it’s all herky-jerky handles (can someone be buttery and herky-jerky at the same time?), sublime footwork, pinoy steps, and fake alley-oops:

Another one, because why not:

Miller does fun stuff all the time.

Almost half of his shots came at the rim, a number more suitable for an old-school power forward than a 6’5” shooting guard, and he completed a gobsmacking 71%. Defenders could only resort to fouling him, which they did on an absurd 18% of his shot attempts (more than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander!).

Does Miller do a whole lot else? Not yet, outside of a voracious appetite for offensive rebounds. The three-pointer is unproven, the defense is decent but inconsistent, and passing isn’t really his thang. An improvement in any of those categories (or even just developing a right hand!) could lead to a whole new Miller. Frankly, I like watching him more than I’d probably enjoy playing alongside him.

But the Clippers still need what Miller does best — if they can find room for him in the rotation. The backcourt is pretty crowded with combo guards these days. Fifth overall pick Keaton Wagler, fellow Poetry favorite Kobe Sanders (a heady, positionally flexible connector piece), Kris Dunn, and perhaps Gradey Dick will all receive time next to point guard Darius Garland in the backcourt.

The biggest question mark is the pending return of Bennedict Mathurin, however, someone whose play-by-play outcomes are quite similar to Miller’s (even if they do things in entirely different ways). Mathurin is a similarly rim-guided missile who draws a boatload of fouls. However, Mathurin is stuck in restricted free agency limbo, and it’s unclear if he’ll return to the team or not. I’d feel much more confident in Miller’s chances of improving if Mathurin were out of the picture.

Regardless, I’ll be watching Miller whenever I can, and I believe the framework is there for an eye-opening fourth season.

Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers

Here’s the thing about Clingan: I’m not a huge fan! But anytime a guy can make modest but substantial improvements in every facet of the game going from his first to second year, I sit up and take notice.

He took a heavier minutes load, increased his usage, shot better from deep and at the rim, and upped his assist and rebounding rates (becoming the league’s leading per-game O-rebounder). His block rate fell, but not nearly as much as his foul rate, a tradeoff I think Portland will live with. His brick hands became more like half-fired clay, and he developed a much better understanding of how to defend the pick-and-roll.

I’m not quite as blown away defensively by Clingan as everyone else seems to be, but he’s no worse than very good on that end (and could become better than that) as a traditional rim protector. The advanced numbers adored Clingan last year, with EPM even putting him in the 90th percentile for offensive impact.

Portland’s overall team makes no sense. They have too many point guards and big men, not enough wings and forwards, and not nearly enough spacing.

But that might all play to Clingan’s advantage. If you can’t grow driving lanes organically, you need to manufacture them. Clingan could become even more central to Portland’s offense, which should run much more pick-and-roll with Morant and Lillard returning. Rather than trailing to the top of the key while Deni Avdija bullies to the rim in a straight line over and over, Clingan will be more involved in opening up some room for his guards to operate in the half-court.

Clingan averaged just 5.3 screen assist points per game last year, which was actually fewer than in his rookie season and just half of Jusuf Nurkic’s league-leading 10.4. He’s occasionally a little impatient, seemingly more interested in establishing offensive rebounding position than in making contact with the defender:

Still, with an offseason to establish timing with Lillard and Morant, I’d expect Clingan to enter the top 10 next season.

Breakout might be a strong word, because I’m not convinced Clingan will have an explosive box-score season, but he should be extra motivated after a playoff series in which Victor Wembanyama rendered him inconsequential. Another year of subtle improvement could turn Clingan into one of the more well-rounded centers in the league.

Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings

Am I partially doing this because I feel terrible for Kings fans? Sure. Do I believe what I’m about to write anyway? Mostly!

Let’s start with the case against a Murray breakout. His three-point percentage has declined every year he’s been in the league (he’s a rising fifth-year), culminating in last year’s injury-riddled 23-game campaign that saw him make fewer than 30% of his tries. His two-point scoring and turnover rate both went the wrong direction, too, and the team just drafted a high-usage rookie point guard who will undoubtedly be force-fed as much on-ball time as he can handle. Murray also had ankle surgery a couple of months ago that’s supposed to linger through the summer heat.

Coach Doug Christie’s offense does Murray no favors. Almost every one of his self-made twos was him coming off a stale pin-down or hand-off with zero misdirection or off-ball activity, forcing Murray to drive into a wall of defenders (he still hit >70% of his shots at the rack for the third year in a row, even though he had a difficult time getting there).

I’m not selling you so far, I can tell. But there are positive indicators, too.

For one, the Kings no longer employ DeMar DeRozan or Russell Westbrook, and Zach LaVine may be deprioritized. There should be more touches to go around.

Murray’s always been a more versatile scorer than people realize. He’s a sturdy finisher around the rim, effectively using his size to finish through and around defenders. What’s the opposite of slithery? Murray is clompy. But his in-air body control and balance are pristine:

On his best days, Murray flashes a surprisingly angry post-up game, and he’s a better north-south and vertical athlete than defenders realize. He’s a threat to score from anywhere on the court in a variety of ways. Until last year, he’d been a paragon of health, and I hope next season is a return to form.

Murray’s biggest issue has always been having room to operate. With DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, and later Russell Westbrook, the Kings were forced to use Murray as a floor spacer for lack of a better option. While they still don’t have enough shooting, and Doug Christie’s offense likely won’t be much more creative, Murray will have more opportunities as the primary play finisher. The talent is there, and for the first time in his career, the opportunity to be a top-two option might be, too.