Four players who could change NBA history

X-Factors, you might call them.

Boston is a heavy favorite to defend their crown in the coming season, but there is no such thing as a lock. If another team were to write the course of NBA history next year, one of these four players might well be holding the pen.

[Editor’s note: I’m off early next week for Labor Day vacation, but I’ll be back later in the week with another article.]

Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, 3-and-D exemplar, walk so that they could save a few bucks. It was a bad, dumb, bad idea that objectively worsened the team during Jokic’s prime.

The only way to soften the blow is if Christian Braun, the presumptive starter in KCP’s place, dramatically improves.

Braun is a compelling talent, a physical, defensive menace who sprints in transition like hell itself is after him. He even shot 38% from deep on low volume (3.6 attempts per 36 minutes).

But Caldwell-Pope had real shooting gravity, sucking defenders in like a black hole. Braun will be ignored on the perimeter until he proves that 38% is legit on higher volume.

There are other ways to punish a defense as a non-shooter, but Aaron Gordon already fills those roles in Denver’s starting lineup. Julian Strawther showed real offensive flashes as a rookie, but he might not be ready for the toughest perimeter defensive assignments yet (and the three-point-starved bench may need his volume shooting even more than the starters do!). Braun needs to start, and he needs to fire away.

Braun might be the most interesting fifth starter in the Association because he’s still a relative unknown despite playing nearly 3,000 minutes over the last two seasons. Best case: Braun can crank up the volume to respectable levels, replace KCP’s on-ball defense, and add a frantic element of chaotic energy on both sides that the Nuggets haven’t had since Bruce Brown left after their championship. While he can’t entirely replace KCP’s shooting, he does so much of everything else that he lifts the Nuggets back into title-favorite status.

Evidence to support that scenario: in the paltry 52 possessions that Braun played with the rest of Denver’s starters, they had a net rating of +16.3. (Then again, almost every lineup with Jokic works in the regular season).

Worst case: Braun remains a reluctant shooter, and defenses ignore him. With another lousy shooter, Aaron Gordon, entrenched as a starter, Braun’s offensive limitations force the Nuggets to look elsewhere, but none of their other options can bring the on-ball defensive chops that KCP had. Denver spends all season looking for a capable fifth starter and never finds one, losing in the second round to the Timberwolves again as the offense, even with Jokic, struggles to find breathing room.

The Nuggets with a healthy Jamal Murray and a good Christian Braun might be my pick to emerge from the West. But they don’t have much depth, and even minor setbacks could sink their hopes in a brutal conference.

Julius Randle, New York Knicks

Randle figures to be a defining figure of the 2024-25 season in some form or fashion, but it’s not clear exactly how.

Randle is the NBA’s premier Jekyll-and-Hyde act. At his best, Randle is a sneering battering ram, a shoulder-checking nightmare whose sheer presence sucks in defenders and opens up teammates:

We watched Jalen Brunson pound the ball to death last season in Randle’s injury absence, and as much as I love the Book of Brunson, that one-note offense is too limited for a deep playoff run. Adding Mikal Bridges helps, but the Knicks still need Randle’s ballhandling, playmaking, and scoring (especially without Isaiah Hartenstein’s passing from the high post lubricating the offense).

Unfortunately, there are nights when Randle looks like a totally different monster: slow, lazy, selfish, and inefficient. Knicks fans live in fear of this version of Randle, who can show up without warning for games or weeks at a time. We’ve seen less Hyde of late, but he’s always lurking.

The Knicks will explore the trade market for Randle, too, but who is willing to trade for him? Randle has two years left on his contract, but the second is a player option for $31M, so whoever trades for him must figure out how much he’s worth in his next deal. It’s hard to see how he fits on most good teams, and he’s a bit too old to fit into young, developing squads.

I don’t mean to suggest that Randle is a bad player. He’s been All-NBA twice and deserved it at least one of those times. His box-score production is mind boggling — it just hasn’t always seemed to translate to winning. But the Knicks with Randle steamrolled the opposition after last year’s trade for 3-and-D deity OG Anunoby, and the trio of Brunson/Randle/Anunoby had an insane net rating of +26.1 points in nearly 600 possessions. That’s not a massive sample size, but it’s big enough to feel good about it. Before injuries struck, the Knicks ripped off a 12-2 run with Randle and Anunoby (and their two losses were by a combined eight points).

I thought the healthy Knicks were the second-best team in the East last season. Losing Hartenstein is a major blow, and I’m not convinced Mikal Bridges is a better fit than Donte DiVincenzo (offensively, at least) in the starting uni. Still, they’ll be healthy and motivated. This is a hungry team, and if they have an engaged and excited Julius Randle, as they did last year, they have the goods to go all the way.