Four stats explaining the conference finals

Pull-up twos, corner threes, and New York's surprising defensive goat (not GOAT)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (OKC leads 3-1)

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I have two heavily related stats for the Western Conference Finals that I found interesting. The headliner: The Thunder’s two best offensive players, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, have outscored the Wolves’ two best scorers, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, by a combined 56 points over four games.

I will talk more about the reasons for the two Wolves below-average scoring below, so we’ll make this the Thunder section.

SGA has now dropped 30+ points in six of his last seven playoff games, the lone exception being a paltry 14 in just 27 Game 3 minutes as he took an early seat thanks to Minnesota’s dominance. The Wolves are a really good defensive team, and despite those gaudy scoring totals, they have generally made SGA work hard for his points.

His raw field goal percentages certainly won’t impress. Gilgeous-Alexander’s true shooting is propped up by superb (and prolific) free-throw shooting. The Wolves haven’t figured out how to keep their hands off of him (Shai has earned a few freebies with his acting skills, as well, although that narrative is overblown), and his parade to the free throw line has both buoyed OKC’s offense and frustrated the Wolves’ defenders. First, we had Edwards (hilariously) tossing the ball at a supine Shai, then we had Jaden McDaniels turning into Wilson, the kid my toddler doesn’t like at preschool:

SGA’s performance has been more or less what I expected. I’ve been more impressed by Jalen Williams’ efforts, particularly in that must-have Game 4, when he dropped 34 points on 6-for-9 shooting from deep.

Like Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams’ raw efficiency hasn’t been up to his usual standards. Again, Minnesota’s defense is elite. But he’s largely been an effective second option in this series. The Thunder struggled all season to score with SGA on the bench, but as he took his customary breather at the start of the fourth quarter, Williams delivered six huge points in three minutes with a putback, some free throws, and his trademark gorgeous stop-on-a-dime pull-up:

More importantly, Williams has been able to do more to impact the game than his counterpart Randle. I often think of basketball in terms of value per pecking-order position. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the MVP this season for a reason, and he has predictably outplayed Anthony Edwards so far this series (although Edwards has been better than his counting stats suggest). If Williams is also going to outplay Randle, as he has so far, the Timberwolves have a huge deficit to make up.

17.3%

A major part of the production delta between the two sets of stars comes down to defensive scheme, and I wanted to highlight that with a different number. The Timberwolves have attempted an incredible 17.3% of their shots from the corners; no other conference finalist has even cracked double-digits. Phoenix (thanks, Mike Budenholzer) led the league in this stat during the regular season at just 12.8%.

For most teams, denying corner threes is a core defensive principle. The quirkiness of the NBA’s three-point arc means that the corners are closer to the basket, so role players (usually stationed there to stretch the defense and provide more room in the middle of the court for ballhandling stars) are more likely to make them. Defenses usually don’t want to give those up.

But the Thunder have decided to let Minny take all the corner threes they want. Instead, they’re packing the paint, cutting off driving and passing lanes, and putting two people on Edwards (and often Randle, too). Both Edwards and Randle have had decreased time of possession in these conference finals compared to the regular season. If the lesser Wolves can beat OKC, then let ‘em.

Coach Mark Daigneault made a bet that his squad could prevent Edwards and Randle from rampaging to the rim without dying under a hail of arrows from the right angles. That wager has paid off, although it’s closer to a push than a massive moneymaker. Minnesota couldn’t buy a bucket from downtown in Games 1 and 2, both Thunder wins. Those shots have fallen in Games 3 and 4, a split, and the Wolves’ overall offensive production has been quite good. Coach Chris Finch as installed a huge number of pin-in screens to take advantage of the Thunder leaving the corners alone, and they’ve been getting great looks:

But the team can and should ask for more from its stars.

Randle’s inconsistency has been a major storyline. The Thunder have mixed and matched their coverages to confuse him and prevent a rhythm. The NBA doesn’t have many guards strong enough to hold up against Randle, much less win the battle of the trenches. The Thunder boast two such players in Alex Caruso (who spent much of Game 4 guarding centers Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid!) and Lu Dort. Watch Dort completely stonewall Randle up top and force a wild pass to Conley in the corner:

Randle was benched down the stretch of Games 2 and 4, and it was the right decision both times. After yesterday’s loss, he noted that there was “a lot of me just spectating.” That’s an accurate assessment, but it doesn’t give the Thunder’s defense enough credit for their role in forcing him to become an observer.

Anthony Edwards had a similar story, although he played better overall. In Game 4’s tight loss, Edwards didn’t attempt his first shot until less than a minute remained in the first quarter!

The stars’ scoring output wasn’t the reason Minnesota lost a crucial Game 4; when the team got a shot up at all, good things happened. OKC stole the ball and their lunch money time and again, and the Wolves gave up an obscene number of offensive rebounds (which they matched, but still!). As Edwards said after the game, he was making the right play, and the team scored like gangbusters whenever they didn’t turn it over.

But there’s more to OKC’s efforts to take the ball out of Edwards’ hands than just preventing him from scoring. Edwards is 23 years old and still trying to figure out the differences between maximizing winning and maximizing individual performance. He gave a candid (perhaps too candid) look at his mindset earlier this year. “I’m 23. I don’t want to be passing the ball all night,” he said after a January loss to Boston, admitting it was “super hard” to stay engaged when he wasn’t getting up enough shots.

Shades of his frustration showed in Game 4. Despite his complaint, he continually made good passes and never forced the issue on offense. But he also allowed backdoor cuts, missed important boxouts, and looked generally out of sorts all game long:

That visible petulance is a big part of why the Thunder are playing him so aggressively. He and Randle (whose sleeves carry more emotions than your grandma’s favorite telenovela) are two of the juiciest targets for body-language hawks; win or lose this series, I hope that’s a lesson they’ll internalize going forward.

This has been an odd matchup, with three blowouts and only one close game. Despite OKC’s 3-1 lead, the total differential is just one solitary point. There are signs (and by signs, I mean truckloads of buckets) that the Timberwolves have figured out how to take advantage of the Thunder’s overcommitment to stopping Randle and Edwards; if Minnesota can stabilize the possession game, they aren’t out of it yet.

But winning three straight games against this historically dominant Thunder team is a daunting task. OKC has lost three in a row exactly zero times this season. Fans in the dust bowl shouldn’t count unhatched chickens just yet, but it’s a pretty good bet we know one Finals team already.

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers (IND leads 2-1)

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