Giannis Antetokounmpo and Julius Randle trade grades

Grading the Heat, Bucks, Timberwolves, Bulls, and Nets

The national nightmare is over. Giannis Antetokounmpo is finally, mercifully, in a new location. I had just tucked myself into bed, preparing for a long day tomorrow, when the Shams bomb exploded my hopes for peaceful sleep into smithereens.

And hey, Julius Randle will be moving, too! Let’s grade some trades.

Trade 1

Heat get: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis

Bucks get: Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first-round picks (unprotected in ‘31 and ‘33 and #13 today), a swap in ‘30, and a ‘33 second

Maybe all that last-minute flirting with the Boston Celtics paid off for the Bucks. This is a great haul for Milwaukee but still a worthy (if expensive) swing for Miami.

I thank the basketball gods we no longer have to endure the endless swirl of media coverage around Giannis’ every comment, Instagram like, and eyebrow twitch. The tasseography was exhausting, as it is for every mega-superstar who starts to get a real or imaginary wandering eye.

Now, we can focus on the rather fascinating basketball dynamics!

When healthy (the two most dreaded words in basketball; we’ll expand on that thought below), Antetokounmpo began the year having arguably the best season of his incredibly illustrious career. His 35.3 points per 75 possessions were a career high, and his two-point field goal percentage was downright diabolical — 65.0%, also a career high. That shouldn’t be even theoretically possible for a 31-year-old who was already an absurdly efficient player.

One interesting quirk: much was made, both here and elsewhere, about Antetokounmpo’s midrange jumper improvement in 2024-25. He nailed 47% of long midrange jumpers while shooting four per game, excellent accuracy on relatively huge volume.

Last year, his accuracy fell to just 28%, and the volume (appropriately) dried up. Whatever else you want to say about the Bucks, they did a good job surrounding Giannis with capable three-point shooters, and he took advantage by steamrolling to the rim on 70% of his shots, yet another career high. While I’d love to see him continue to nail the Nowitzkian one-footers he toyed with two seasons ago, I love even more that he’s simply decided to abandon that shot for higher-outcome looks at the basket:

Antetokounmpo’s willingness to experiment with his shot diet and abandon what isn’t working for him has been an underrated part of his development over the years.

Defensively, Antetokounmpo had fallen off over the last few years, but he started the season very strongly. That didn’t sustain, in part due to his injuries and in part due to the natural dissociation that players develop when they know their time in a city is short. A motivated, healthy Antetokounmpo is still a very impactful player on that end, but it won’t be as consistent as Miami fans might expect.

Still, Giannis is one of the few true world-devourers. He was a top-four MVP finisher seven years in a row until last season’s injury-shortened campaign, and there’s no reason to think a healthy Giannis will fall off dramatically next season.

But just like the Greek Freak’s joints, “healthy” is carrying a heavy load. While Antetokounmpo has largely avoided the catastrophic long-term injuries that have beset so many of his peers (he played at least 61 games in every season of his career up until the last one), his body has consistently failed him in the playoffs. Bad luck? Or the inevitable result of endless wear and tear, the bitter fruit borne from six months of the most physical play in the league? The more often it occurs, and the older he gets, the more likely the latter answer is the truth.

Giannis will also want a big payday, as he has a player option in 2027-28. I have concerns about his availability as he ages, but there’s no reason to think he won’t perform at an MVP level for at least the next couple of years if he’s upright. Unfortunately, that’s typically the cost of doing business with superduperstars.

The fit on the Heat is fascinating. They don’t have the kind of shooting around him that Milwaukee offered, but I do think the hit-ahead, pell-mell offense they ran last season should work to his benefit.