Grading my 2024 unlikely-but-plausible predictions
A look back at the 2024 season through crazy predictions.
Free agency is essentially over, so it’s time for one of my favorite offseason columns: revisiting my unlikely-but-plausible preseason predictions. My goal is always to hit on about a quarter of these predictions. Any more, and they aren’t crazy enough, but any fewer means that they’re completely off the mark.
If you make predictions, you ought to check your work. It’s fun to go back and see where they went well and where they went so, so wrong (mostly the latter).
If nothing else, this format is a springboard for discussing a wide variety of teams and players, and I always love to do that!
1) Tyus Jones averages eight assists per game
Jones was coming into the season as a surefire starter for the first time in his career. Jones averaged just 6.9 assists per game as a starter prior to last season, but I assumed the Wizards would play crazy fast and had enough scoring pieces to let a traditional table-setter like Jones feast.
Washington did end up with the fastest pace in the entire league, but they were such a trainwreck shooting the basketball (26th in eFG%) that Jones couldn’t quite get there, averaging 7.3 assists.
Jones did average 12.5 potential assists; Domantas Sabonis averaged 8.2 real assists on 12.7 potential assists (although that’s one of the highest conversion rates of any high-volume passer), so there’s a universe in which Jones hit eight dimes. That universe probably requires Jordan Poole not to shoot 41% from the field on 15 field goal attempts per game.
Non-jokes aside, the Wizards’ offense was at least a little disappointing. While Jones wasn’t the problem, he clearly wasn’t the solution, either. I still believe in him as a quality backup and spot starter, and I’m curious to see where he eventually ends up this offseason.
Verdict: Wrong
2) Leaguewide offensive rebounding hits 30%
Every year, I try to manifest more offensive rebounding into existence with this same prediction. Every year, I fail.
Offensive rebounding had been trending up, but 2024’s 26.8% average offensive rebounding rate mirrors 2023’s number. We haven’t seen 30% since the dark days of 2005. If recent history is any indication, we won’t be getting there anytime soon, either.
Doesn’t matter. I’m making this same prediction next year. Offensive rebounding is fun, and I want more of it.
Verdict: Negative
3) Trae Young makes an All-NBA team
On the one hand, Young did have a nice bounce-back season, making the All-Star game after missing it in 2023. He shot 37.3% from deep on 8.7 attempts per game, the best shooting season of his career when combining accuracy and volume, and averaged career-highs in steals and assists.
On the other hand, he was an injury replacement to the All-Star game, not a first choice, and he never came close to making an All-NBA team. All-NBA being positionless does ease some of the positional pressures (the guard position is so stacked), but unless the Hawks shock everyone next year with a run at a top-four seed, it’s hard to see Young getting back on this prestigious list.
Verdict: Incorrect
4) Wembanyama shoots 45/25/80 percent splits, still wins ROY
Wembanyama shot more efficiently than I expected. He ended up 47% from the field, 33% from deep, and 80% from the free-throw line (rounding FTW!). Interestingly, Wembanyama shot very slightly worse after the All-Star break, likely feeling the rookie wall and bearing the brunt of increased defensive attention. Long-lasting allergies didn’t help.
But those numbers don’t do justice to the unbelievable skill set he showed off while surrounded by a terrible supporting cast. I was particularly impressed by Wembanyama’s passing, something I hadn’t expected in his rookie year. He showed remarkable court-mapping abilities that improved as the months rolled onward. Early in the season, he often rushed to hit a cutter when he saw a double-team coming:
Contrast that with this April assist, in which he sees the double coming, manipulates the help defender with his eyes, and then fires an (admittedly slightly off-target) bounce pass to a shooter in the corner:
(Like everything Wemby does, it’s both an incredible play and also easy to see how it could become even better.)
Wemby’s height gives him access to passing angles almost nobody else can reach, but his growing composure lets him take advantage of them.
Wembanyama already might be the best defender in the NBA; further offensive improvement could make him an All-NBA player in his second year. The alien was everything that was promised and more.
Verdict: True
5) Jason Kidd and Steve Clifford will be the only coaches replaced this cycle
Not even close.
It’s hard to remember now, but Jason Kidd entered the season on a warm seat after missing the play-in the year prior (thanks to some last-minute tanking). Kidd responded by coaching the Dallas Mavericks all the way to the NBA Finals.
But even with Kidd securing his job, the body count was high. In total, eight teams changed their helmsman for the coming season (including Steve Clifford, who resigned).
I knew this was one of the unlikelier ones to hit, as I wrote, “Historically speaking, it’s more likely we'll see six new faces on benches next year than two.” My other guess was closer to correct (JB Bickerstaff was fired from one place and hired from another, so there are seven “new” faces amid eight changes). Here’s a list of all the turnover we’ve seen:
Nets: Jacque Vaughn, Jordi Fernandez
Hornets: Steve Clifford, Charles Lee
Suns: Frank Vogel, Mike Budenholzer
Pistons: Monty Williams, JB Bickerstaff
Cavaliers: JB Bickerstaff, Kenny Atkinson
Lakers: Darvin Ham, JJ Redick
Wizards: Wes Unseld Jr., Brian Keefe
Bucks: Adrian Griffin, Doc Rivers
Next year, I’ll be particularly interested in watching Budenholzer and Atkinson work on turning good teams into great ones. I’m also curious what Charles Lee does with his first head coaching opportunity.
Verdict: Incredibly wrong
6) The Kings miss the playoffs
This one brought me no joy, as I enjoyed seeing the Kings’ beam constantly jolting skyward in 2023. But predicting the Kings to miss the playoffs was probably one of the least bold predictions on here. They had the league’s best health and also faced a set of opponents with the league’s worst health in ‘23. The offense regressed from historically great to average, and somewhat worse injury luck (in both directions) hurt Sacramento. They fell to ninth in the West and lost in the play-in.
In some ways, this isn’t entirely fair. The Kings went 46-36, just two games worse than the year prior. But in a revamped and dominant Western conference, those two games amounted to a six-spot downgrade in the standings.
With DeMar DeRozan on board, things will be different next time around. Whether they’ll be better remains to be seen.
Verdict: Correct, but I’m not particularly proud
7) Jamal Murray averages 25 points per game
Murray tied his career high at 21.2 points per game on solid efficiency (particularly from deep) but never came close to 25 as he battled health issues. All in all, it was a fine but ultimately disappointing year for Murray and the Nuggets.
Verdict: Nope
8) Jaden McDaniels wins Defensive Player of the Year
McDaniels is an interesting case. He is a perfect example of the lagging voting for defensive player awards. Although McDaniels was very good in ‘24, I thought he was significantly better in ‘23, when I had him third on my Defensive Player of the Year ballot.
This year, faced with greater competition thanks to the positionless change, he didn’t crack one of my personal All-Defensive Teams (although he did make the real, far less important All-Defensive Second Team).
Verdict: *thumbs down emoji*
9) O.G. Anunoby gets four years and $180 million
Wait right here while I run a quick victory lap.
…
*Huffs, pants, chugs water, cramps, falls down*
Okay, I’m good. This prediction received the most pushback, but it was one of the few I actually nailed.
I initially said four years, $160 million, and decided that wasn’t bold enough, so I moved it to $180 million, right near the projected max at the time. Anunoby, of course, received $212 million over five years from New York. Although that averages slightly less annual value than 4/$180M, he reportedly had multiple offers for 4/$182M. Count it.
Elite role players (Anunoby, Derrick White) are getting paid like never before, even as solid contributors (Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith, Gary Trent Jr.) are getting squeezed. I’m unsure if this is temporary, as teams struggle to adjust to the new CBA, or if this is the new reality, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Regardless, Anunoby is a perfect fit on any contender as one of the league’s best defenders and a proven three-point marksman. How many guys can stonewall Alperen Sengun in the post…
…as easily as they stop Giannis Antetokounmpo in transition?
Guys who fit around any superstar are few and far between. New York now has two such players: Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.
Although Boston is still a heavy favorite in the East, I’d have New York over anyone else in the conference (although they need to find a way to improve their big man depth, which is worrisome). Anunoby’s health is always a question mark, but this was the fair market rate for perhaps the league’s best non-star.
Verdict: Damn right!
10) The Suns have two 50/40/90 players
This was always unlikely, but I wasn’t that far off. Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal (a better season than you might remember, given how it ended), and Grayson Allen were all in the neighborhood but ultimately undone by free throws.
Verdict: Close-ish, but nah. Practice your free throws!
11) Chris Paul solves Golden State’s turnover problem
Specifically, I predicted that Golden State would finish in the league’s top half for turnover rate after finishing 29th two seasons in a row. Ultimately, that was a bridge too far, and Golden State finished 22nd.
They were above-average in the minutes Chris Paul played, but he missed a third of the season with injury, sinking any faint hopes I had of being right.
The Chris Paul experiment in Golden State disappointed, and the Warriors missed the playoffs. He’ll take his talents to San Antonio now, hoping to unlock Wembanyama’s offense to an even greater degree.
Verdict: Nay
12) There’s a fistfight within the Rockets
This was the other unlikely-but-plausible prediction that people didn’t like, and for good reason. To my knowledge, it never even came close to becoming true.
The original thinking: Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks were low-efficiency, shot-first veterans, and VanVleet, in particular, has a grumpy old man history. Houston was (and still is) stacked with young guys eager to prove themselves and earn a second contract. Even with noted disciplinarian Ime Udoka piloting, a bunch of arguments about shots and minutes seemed possible.
Instead, Houston seemed mostly as kumbayah as could be expected (outside of some uncertainty with Jalen Green’s benchings in February).
Udoka’s focus on competition quelled any potential distractions, and the Rockets were in the mix for a play-in spot up until the very end. Good lesson for me: it’s silly to predict the vibezzz for a new situation because interpersonal chemistry is hard to observe and even harder to guess.
Although I was way off here, this wasn’t as bad as my next prediction.
Verdict: By no means accurate
13) The Hornets will be an above-average defense
The Hornets were a top-10 defense in games then-rookie Mark Williams started in the 2023 season, so I thought it was at least possible that Williams, incoming rookie Brandon Miller, Gordon Hayward, and returning domestic abuser Miles Bridges could construct a decent enough defense in a weaker Eastern Conference.
I was wildly incorrect.
The Hornets were riddled with injuries and finished with the league’s third-worst defense by rating. It was hard to watch at times. Williams only played 19 games, which didn’t help, but lineups with Williams were still in the bottom third of the league defensively.
Charlotte didn’t foul too often. That’s the one nice thing I can say. But the Hornets routinely ran out sub-NBA-talent players, rarely had the same rotation available two nights in a row, and allowed opponents to shoot a ton of threes and layups. That’s all a Martha Stewart-approved recipe for badness.
The roster turnover excuse only goes so far. It’s rare to see an NBA team have so many guys casually jogging to the wrong spots or looking around in confusion like this (and don’t miss Steph Curry with the world’s most unnecessary behind-the-back):
And that was a pretty typical Charlotte defensive possession!
If you make a post with more than a dozen unlikely-but-plausible predictions, you’re bound to have a few stinkers. This one takes the cake.
Verdict: So wrong it feels purposeful
**Paid subscribers can see the remaining six unlikely — but plausible! — predictions below!**