Grading the Terry Rozier trade with far too much detail

Adjudicating the Miami Heat/Charlotte Hornets swap

The Charlotte Hornets have traded combo guard Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat for Kyle Lowry and a conditional 2027 first-round pick — lottery protected in 2027, unprotected in 2028 if it doesn’t convey.

It’s a fun move! Rozier has long been an intriguing player. Let’s get into it.

Miami Heat: A-

Like a toddler in the golden afternoon sunlight, the Miami Heat have desperately needed juice for some time. Their offense ranks in the bottom third this season, as it did last season, and only Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro can reliably create for themselves and others off the dribble.

Rozier is here, and he’s brought a cooler full of Capri Suns. He’s averaging 23 points and 6.6 assists per game. 35.8% from deep isn’t particularly inspiring, but he does get up nearly eight triples per game, a volume Miami’s offense will gladly welcome, and he’s been a much more accurate shooter in the past. The days of Kyle Lowry passing up open threes to slowly dribble into a wall of defenders are gone — Rozier will get them up with zero remorse or hesitation.

Rozier is a natural shooting guard, but he’s been forced to play a ton of point guard this season in Charlotte due to LaMelo Ball’s injury absences. He’s responded with the best playmaking season of his career by far — a 30% assist rate is elite, and he’s been relatively thrifty with the turnovers. He’s clearly trying hard to fill the point guard role, and he’s done so pretty well:

As detailed by Mat Issa, Rozier tends to rate highly in other, more advanced playmaking metrics, too.

But that’s playing against type. Rozier is a scorer, first and foremost. Miami has several players capable of bringing the ball up and getting into the offense, so they didn’t necessarily need a true point guard. The three-headed hydra of Rozier/Herro/Butler should be adequate in that role (if not exemplary). We’ll see if the lack of a true floor general hurts more in the playoffs, but it shouldn’t matter in the regular season.

Defensively, Rozier had a reputation as a ballhawk when he was a young Celtic, earning him the moniker “Scary Terry.” His habits have devolved as he’s coasted in Charlotte. The Heat have a history of getting the most defensively from their role players, and Rozier has shown some upside in that regard in the past. He’ll need to shake off years of rust on that end, however.

Rozier is also small, a lightweight 6’1”. Although far quicker than Lowry, and boasting a 6’7” wingspan, he won’t hold up nearly as well when switching onto bigger players. The good news is that he’s a far better point-of-attack defender than either the ancient Lowry or Herro, and he will give the starting unit a little more resistance to the exact type of player the East is littered with: jitterbug scoring guards. Trae Young, Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brunson, Damian Lillard — Rozier will help in those matchups. I believe he’ll be a significant upgrade on defense overall, but there are certain situations where he will fare worse.

Rozier’s jump shooting should be a strength. He’s been an above-average midrange shooter for most of his career, and he’s hitting over 50% from both floater range and the long midrange this year. That’s an important out for a Miami offense that can get bogged down when the initial actions don’t work. He once was one of the league’s best at catch-and-shoot threes, but he’s only converting 30% this season (although the number is much better when LaMelo Ball is playing, so it might just be his catch-and-shoot quality is significantly worse than usual this year. That’s something to monitor.).

Perhaps the most critical thing with Rozier is his ability to teleport to the rack. 27% of Rozier’s shots were layups this season, a solid positional mark. Herro is at a paltry 12%, and Lowry was just 16%. Having another player who can break a defense down will be a welcome change. He’s a shifty ballhandler who wiggles his way past defenders like a greased pig evading capture at a barnyard comedy show.

If you’ve watched enough Heat games over the last year or two, Rozier will look like he’s moving in fast-forward compared to Miami’s usual guards:

He loves scooping, one-handed, aesthetically-pleasing finger rolls, Curry-like in their arc and delivery. They look gorgeous when they go in but don’t hit as often as they should. He only converts 57% of his shots at the rim, a below-average mark. I refuse to believe this is the easiest way to shoot this layup:

But simply getting two feet in the paint opens things up for teammates, too, adding a new wrinkle to Miami’s offense. Watch how he sucks in the Nets’ defense here, opening up an easy passing lane for an open triple:

Zooming out, Rozier is a player of similar caliber to Tyler Herro and shares some stylistic tendencies, although he’s shorter, faster, and older. He’s also making $25 million next season (far less than Lowry) and has a partial guarantee the year after, which makes for a reasonable contract, if not a cheap one. It significantly reduces the Heat’s luxury-tax concerns this season (although the team’s payroll is getting a bit gunkier down the road).

Rozier certainly gives the Heat a lot of what they needed. The only qualms I have are around opportunity cost. Does Rozier move the needle? The sent-away pick and Lowry’s contract were two of the Heat’s most important trade assets, so this likely is the one major swing they’ll take.

An optimist would argue the Heat don’t need the needle moved much. They were in the Finals just last year and are a deeper, better team this season. Rozier is a flat-out upgrade in many areas. I’m unsure if Rozier will start every game, but he seems likely to close most of them. He gives the Heat secondary scoring punch when Jimmy Butler rests, and his shooting will grease a clunky Miami offensive engine. If he can hold up defensively in the playoffs — a big if — this could look like a home run.

This isn’t a bad price for a 20+ point scorer with playmaking ability and at least some defensive upside. It’s hard not to see this as a win for Miami, although it’s also hard to ignore the ghosts of Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday dancing over Rozier’s head. In fact, Miami might see the oh-so-corporeal versions of those players in the playoffs, where Rozier + Herro will need to prove themselves. It’s a reasonable bet. In a perfect world, Miami would have put more into a package for a bigger name, but there just aren’t many bigger names available; Miami would’ve waited it out if they thought one would be nabbable. Rozier was likely the best Miami could do, and I swear I’m not damning with faint praise.

Charlotte Hornets: B

Charlotte will likely flip Kyle Lowry for something, and until we know what that is, it’s tough to grade this with certainty. The Heat pick is lottery-protected in 2027. If it doesn’t convey, it becomes unprotected in 2028. That’s not a bad pick — Miami could be in a rebuild by then — but betting on Miami bottoming out has not been a good wager for a long time.

Rozier is malleable and productive enough of a guard that the Hornets may have been able to get more if they had waited closer to the deadline. Lots of teams need a proven scorer with at least passable defensive chops. I’m not convinced Dejounte Murray is much better of a player, and he seems likely to command a bigger price tag.

But any chance at an unprotected first can be appealing, and Charlotte must think it can find value from Lowry. It’s an acceptable piece of business.