Harden, Kawhi, and belated Trade Grades

The Clippers had an interesting few days, plus trade grades for the Cavs, Kings, Bulls, Hawks, and Blazers

We had two trades and some interesting news over the last few days, which gave me something to write about before the big dominoes fall this week. The trade deadline is 3:00pm Thursday; here’s hoping for some fireworks! When it starts coming fast and furious, I’ll be sending out trade grades as quickly as I can type them, so please forgive any lack of polish or typos and keep an eye on your inbox.

Until then, we have a few things to talk about.

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First, All-Star reserves were announced:

I’m pleased as Hawaiian Punch that Pascal Siakam made it. Michael Porter Jr.’s exclusion is a little surprising, but the coaches clearly don’t respect his accomplishments as much as the fans and media do. Congrats, too, to Norm Powell, making his first All-Star game at the tender age of 32 (the record is held by Nat Clifton, at 34; Mike Conley made it a few years ago at 33).

I’m okay with the addition of LeBron James. This is the All-Star game, after all, and even at 41, nobody is Starrier. Even with James’ growing defensive flaws and inability to find a rhythm with Luka Doncic, 22/7/6 with reasonable efficiency won’t look terribly out of place on the surface.

But there’s one thing that made my eyeballs perk up, and it could be the first warning of a coming seismic event: No Kawhi Leonard.

Leonard is a many-time All-NBAer and former champion having the best scoring season of his career. While he’s only played 36 games this season, that’s more than James, Jokic, or Giannis. There is simply no basketball reason to exclude him from All-Star Weekend, especially given that Steve Ballmer and the Clippers are hosting the entire event.

Coaches have spent hours and hours gameplanning for Leonard on both sides of the ball for a decade now. Did they universally decide to punish Leonard for his role in the Aspiration scandal still hanging unresolved over the Clippers like a tundoran stormcloud? Or was this an edict, implied or otherwise, from the league itself?

I’m not a betting man, but I know where I’d place my chips.

Perhaps relatedly, news broke last night that the Clippers and Harden are working together to find a trade partner (possibly Cleveland, for Darius Garland), which throws further fuel into the blaze. Does recently re-signed Lawrence Frank know that a bigger punishment is coming? Are they trying to get out while the getting is good?

Let’s play a hypothetical. If the Clippers know that Adam Silver is about to bring the hammer down, but they don’t know exactly how, it makes much more sense to trade for a high-upside young player like Garland than draft picks. The league could easily take away any traded-for draft selections, but they aren’t likely to punish uninvolved players.

And what would the Clips do with Kawhi Leonard? Would another team even be allowed to trade for him? There’s plenty to untangle there.

I have a lot more to say about that situation, but I’ll wait until a move is officially made. Now, let’s move on to some trade grades.

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Trade 1

Cleveland Cavaliers receive: Keon Ellis, Dennis Schroder
Sacramento Kings receive: De'Andre Hunter
Chicago Bulls receive: Dario Saric, two second-rounders (one each from Sac [‘29] and Cleveland [‘27])

First, let’s acknowledge the rare unquestionable win for Chicago. Sacramento had to send out more than just Ellis to match Hunter’s salary, so Chicago took in Saric’s ~$5 million (they’re still well below the tax line) and received a couple of seconds for their troubles. It’s not a game-changer, but these are the sort of smart moves on the margins that Chicago, frankly, almost never does.

Heck, Saric might even play for Chicago a bit with Jalen Smith and Zach Collins banged up. They need center depth.

Bulls grade: A

While Cleveland fans are still digesting the horror of potentially swapping homegrown star Garland for arguably the league’s least-loved player (man, I’m itching to talk about that!), a smaller news article hopefully cheered them up a little.

This was a very solid swap for the Cavaliers. Although Hunter shot well for them last season, he’s always been a bit of a hollow player. When the three-ball recedes from transcendent to terrible (he’s shooting just 31% from deep this season, a career-low), he doesn’t bring much else to the table. The emergence of Jaylon Tyson (15/6/3 in his last 30 games while shooting 48% from deep and bringing much more hustle and defense) and the soon-to-be return of Max Strus have made Hunter expendable.

Hunter is making nearly $48 million over the next 1.5 seasons; frankly, I assumed he would have negative value and that the Cavs would have to pay to get a team to take on his contract.

Instead, the Cavs get at least one player who can help them, and possibly two. Every basketball blogger loves Keon Ellis. He’s not a star on either end, but he’s an above-average guard defender (albeit not a particularly versatile one) and a proven shooter still hitting 37% from deep (a career-worst, but still respectable). This is the exact kind of player every contending team wants on its bench.

Schroder is a little trickier to parse.

I’ve always been a fan, but he’s been wildly inconsistent this year. At 32, the wheels he’s famous for are starting to slow down, and he’s never been a reliable shooter from downtown. He’s a little too gambley (which is definitely a word) on defense for my tastes, too, although we’ve seen him lock in when it matters. He even lost his starting gig to Russell Westbrook, although given the general state of confusion and 2000s-tinted fog that the Kings perpetually operate in, it’s hard to say whether that was entirely justified.

But Darius Garland’s toe injuries are deeply concerning, and the Cavs need backcourt depth. The Lonzo Ball effort was well-intentioned but has gone disastrously, and Craig Porter Jr. simply isn’t good enough to play as many minutes as he does. On most nights, Schroder will be better than either, and he’ll play big minutes if Mitchell or Garland (or Harden) misses more time.

This isn’t a total slam dunk, though.

There’s a not-insignificant chance that Schroder is cooked, and it’s super weird that Ellis couldn’t find a consistent role under two different head coaches (he is quite limited offensively). Perhaps there’s something going on with him I haven’t been able to glean from the outside, but even people close to Sacramento have never understood his constant minimalization, so I’m not sure what that could be.

Still, for Cleveland to come up with a highly desired 3-and-D guard and do a decent job addressing their backup point guard hole while getting off a bad contract for a player they no longer need is fantastic work.

Oh, and by the way: Moving that contract saves the Cavs tens of millions of dollars in tax payments. They can now get under the second apron with one more medium-sized move. Despite a down season, Cleveland is still too good to cut costs simply for the sake of cutting costs (I hope). But if they make a head-scratching deal sending out Strus, Schroder, Ball, and/or Sam Merrill, you’ll know why.

Regardless, I can’t penalize Cleveland for a trade that hasn’t happened yet. Right now, they modestly upgraded their team, cleared playing time for better players, and saved a bunch of money. While there isn’t a massive amount of upside here, there’s virtually no downside, either.

Cavaliers grade: A-

Sacramento continues to depress. The team wanted to get off of the three-year, $45 million contract they inexplicably signed Schroder to in the summer (just a few months before they minimized his role by signing and starting Russell Westbrook, funnily enough). This is ostensibly a buy-low play on Hunter, someone who has consistently shown shotmaking chops throughout his career. He should hit his threes more often than he has so far, and the Kings are always in need of more help at forward. Hunter is serviceable.

But he’s expensive, doesn’t rebound or pass, shoots too many midranges (just like half the roster!), and will likely siphon time away from rookie Nique Clifford. Clifford has had an uneven start to his career, but it’s not like Sacramento should be trying to win games. They’re dead last in the West, and they have the least amount of young talent of any bad team in the league. I just watched a near-full-strength Kings squad lose to a Wizards team that closed the game with five guys who had, until that point, averaged 9.6 points per game. Combined!

While I don’t think Hunter will ruin their lottery odds, his big contract even pushes the Kings into the luxury tax for this season and next, which means they must have other moves planned.

Assuming Hunter’s shooting rebounds, he’s not a bad player. And they hardly paid a franchise-ruining price; I can’t give an “F” for something that’s relatively small potatoes. But half the league wanted Ellis; was there nothing more exciting they could have found for him? I’m not sure Hunter is even better than Ellis straight-up, even if he’ll always put more points on the board.

I suppose Hunter’s bad contract is a year shorter than Schroder’s. But the only other thing I like about this trade is that it frees up a roster spot to convert their try-hard rookie center, Dylan Caldwell, to a standard roster spot. That’s cool.

Kings grade: D+

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Trade 2

Atlanta receives: Duop Reath, two seconds (Atlanta’s own 2027, Knicks in 2030)
Portland receives: Vit Krejci

I’ve long been a Krejci fan. I like guys who can pass, and Krejci packs as many highlights per possession as any role player:

Krejci has also become a deadly marksman. He’s a 40% career shooter from deep slinging the highest volume of his life, albeit mostly on catch-and-shoots.

Krejci isn’t a starter-caliber player, and he’s limited defensively. But he is a reliable bench gunner and ballhandler who fills a gaping need for the feisty Blazers. Portland has the lowest three-point percentage in the league, and none of their guards are shooting even league-average from deep. Krejci can and will do that.

The best part? Krejci is dirt cheap. He has two non-guaranteed years left at the minimum.

Still, the backcourt is pretty crowded. Scoot Henderson may finally make his debut this week, Jrue Holiday is playing reasonably well, and Shaedon Sharpe (still just 22!) is averaging 20 points on improved shooting splits in his last dozen or so games. Rookie Caleb Love has had some huge flashes and giant stinkers, but he’s earned himself a chance. And with Lillard coming back next season, I’m not quite sure how Krejci fits in. They need the shooting, but they already have a lot of guards.

Two seconds isn’t a backbreaking price, but second-round picks are trade lubricant. It’s easy to spend them like they’re nothing, but you’ll miss them when they’re gone.

If Krejci carves out a role in the rotation, this will be a perfectly nice trade. If he’s buried, it’ll be a small mistake. I’m lightly optimistic for the former.

Blazers grade: B-

This is a bit of an odd one for the Hawks.

Duop Reath is theoretically a big man, but his only skill is launching from deep. While that’s not nothing when you’re 6’11”, he’s also out for the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s bought out.

Krejci fell out of the rotation after the Trae Young trade brought back Corey Kispert and CJ McCollum, whose skill sets are somewhat redundant (to say nothing of Luke Kennard, yet another one-dimensional player whose sole reason for being in basketball is to make three-pointers). I’m unconvinced Krejci is the worst player of the four.

Two second-round picks are a good return for a guy if he wasn’t going to play anyway, but Krejci is a capable deep-rotation player with some scoring upside on a Goodwill-cheap contract. It’s exceedingly unlikely that either second-rounder turns into a player as valuable as Krejci is right now, although the Hawks probably aren’t planning on keeping those selections.

Atlanta is selling high, I suppose, but I’m not sure they picked the right guy to sell.

Hawks grade: C