Has Doc Rivers saved the Bucks?

Three losses in the last five games expose the limits to what a coach can do.

Have you ever ridden one of those old-school wooden roller coasters? Like their steel cousins, there are plenty of ups and downs, but the wooden ones rattle your brains even during the fun parts. That’s what the Bucks’ season has felt like. Even the good times hurt.

Under former coach Adrian Griffin, Milwaukee was a disappointing mess despite a strong record. Griffin never unlocked the Damian Lillard/Giannis Antetokounmpo duo despite impressive individual numbers, the revamped switch-heavy defense pulling Brook Lopez away from the rim was a disaster, and players legitimately looked lost on both ends of the court for long stretches even as they racked up close wins. He was fired on January 23rd, just 43 games into his tenure.

New coach Doc Rivers’ first game was on January 29th, and the team started 3-7 under him before the All-Star break. It was a disjointed mess as the team dealt with upheaval and injuries. The most memorable part of that stretch was Rivers’ repeated awkward media interviews deflecting blame and saying weird stuff like, “I wouldn’t wish this on anyone,” where this referred to taking a job paying $40 million. You can wish that on me, Doc, I’m cool with it!

But Rivers was right about one thing: it’s difficult to chart a new course for a team mid-season. The Bucks were able to navigate players’ vacations to schedule some practices during the All-Star break, and they responded like a different team when play resumed. Six straight wins, including victories over mostly healthy Timberwolves and Clippers squads (the latter without Giannis), had people proclaiming that The Bucks Were Back.

Naturally, a dispiriting four-game road trip ended with a 1-3 record to dampen enthusiasm and sound some alarm bells before the Bucks ground out an uninspiring victory in the fourth quarter over the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers Thursday night. Doc has fixed some of the problems ailing the early-season Bucks, but several remain unsolved—and may be unsolvable. Let’s examine what’s changed.

[In general, I will be comparing the Griffin era to the Bucks’ performance after the All-Star break, skipping those first Doc games (and the interim week where Joe Prunty was head coach). This isn’t an attempt to make the Bucks look better—they still have plenty of flaws we’ll look at—but it does seem fairer to look at the team’s performance after they had a few practices and games to work through new systems.]

First, Milwaukee’s notoriously porous transition defense has become a strength. The Bucks allowed the most transition opportunities in the league before Griffin’s firing, a byproduct of their attempts to get more offensive rebounds (which didn’t even work—Milwaukee was a terrible offensive rebounding team under Griffin). Post-All-Star-break, they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest, a massive improvement and one of two main reasons the team’s defensive rating has climbed from below-average to twelfth.

The other is the return of the Brook Lopez deep-drop defense. Griffin had Lopez and the team’s other bigs playing higher, attempting to pressure ballhandlers and, ideally, create turnovers. Giannis and Bobby Portis were expected to play above the three-point line and switch many actions, and while Lopez wasn’t that far up, he was way outside his comfort zone. Corner defenders stayed home instead of helping in the paint as in previous years, so Lopez was forced to be far more active—doubling on drivers and covering far more ground laterally.

Hilariously, the Bucks remained the league’s worst at creating turnovers despite the more aggressive scheme, and it took away their greatest strength: protecting the rim. The Bucks have been top-five in preventing teams from taking shots at the rack in each of the last five seasons—ever since Brook Lopez came to town (they were dead last the year before, for what it’s worth). Under Griffin, they fell out of the top 10.

Doc returned to what worked—keeping the bigs closer to the basket—and the Bucks have allowed the second-fewest rim attempts since the All-Star break.

There’s a halo effect here, too. The team has again become a dominant defensive rebounding squad, something they were lacking while playing so high under Griffin. Keeping Lopez and Giannis closer to the paint means they’re better positioned to box out and secure the ball. Reverting to the old scheme means that the team fouls far less frequently, too, and they are the second-stingiest defense when it comes to free throws.

It’s pretty hard to score on a team that walls off the paint, always secures a miss, and never fouls! That was a core philosophy of Griffin’s predecessor, Mike Budenholzer, and Rivers has returned to that familiar well.

Doc’s arguably been even better than that, though. Despite going back to what works for Lopez, Doc has been more creative with how to defend with his lackluster wings and guards. Milwaukee has utilized several different schemes depending on opponents, including hard and soft switching (when Lopez is resting), picking up ballhandlers way up the court, and even the odd spot of zone defense, something rarely seen in Milwaukee previously.

Rivers has even (gasp!) brought Lopez up higher when required, proving that he won’t be wedded to the deep drop if adjustments are required.

Doc has also benefited from trade-deadline acquisition Pat Beverley, who brings an in-your-jersey defensive presence the Bucks sorely needed on the perimeter. Beverley has his flaws, but at the very least, he’s an irritant capable of applying ball pressure and disrupting opponents for a few minutes at a time.

There are still kinks to work out. The team’s communication is not where it needs to be, as there are blown switches and confused, angry hand gestures at least once every game. Just a few games ago, Antetokounmpo completely blew this simple switch despite his entire team explicitly telling him what to do (look at all the pointing!):

The playoffs aren’t far away. Good teams don’t miss many shots that wide-open.

Rivers can only do so much. The team’s individual defenders still leave a lot to be desired. Jae Crowder and Pat Connaughton are both okay on the wing, but neither are strong plus defenders anymore. The injured Khris Middleton looked creaky on that end before he sprained his ankle. Lillard hasn’t been good this season, and while Malik Beasley has been better than I expected, he’s overextended as the primary perimeter stopper. Beverley can’t play more than 20 minutes per night, or he’ll foul out.

Plus, all those guys (except Beasley) are old! The lack of quick-twitch youthfulness exposes them to fast-paced teams setting lots of picks, as seen on their recent West Coast trip. The Bucks’ repeated struggles against Indiana this season are another example. Brian Sampson at Forbes explored this theme at length, so I’ll keep it short. But when even Doc admits that “teams that play with pace and move the ball, we have struggled against all year,” you know there’s an issue.

But while there are some warts, the defense is significantly improved. Having Antetokounmpo and Lopez prowling the paint covers up a lot of holes, at least in the regular season. The Bucks should only get better as the team works out the kinks.

It’s the other side of the ball I’m more worried about.