Is Russell Westbrook a problem or a solution?

The answer, as always, is complicated.

If you’re reading this, you already have thoughts on Russell Westbrook. Outside of LeBron James, perhaps no player in the league has engendered capital-F Feelings in people over the years quite like him.

But I’m not here to relitigate a past that has little bearing on the present. The Nuggets brought the future Hall of Famer in to add some nastiness, bolster their playmaking, and, perhaps most importantly, fix the critical non-Jokic minutes. Has Westbrook been the answer, or has he been merely a lovely shade of porcine lipstick?

Westbrook has filled highlight reels with some big performances of late after moving into the starting unit for the injured Aaron Gordon. Lineup data is all based on relatively small samples, but predictably, the team’s defense cratered. The Nuggets’ core four (Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun, and Nikola Jokic) give up 13.2 more points per 100 possessions with Westbrook in Gordon’s place, a massive drop that takes the unit’s defense from average-ish to woeful. (That number was 9.8 until yesterday’s bizarre game against a Doncic and Irving-less Dallas squad, in which the Nuggets’ starters got absolutely blitzed out of the gate).

Gordon is the starting group’s best forward guardsman and a strong team defender, too. Replacing him with the smaller Westbrook predictably opened some cracks.

What wasn’t so predictable: replacing Gordon with Westbrook has taken an already good offensive lineup from Mile High to atmospheric heights. The starters with Russ have scored 130.6 points per 100 minutes, eight more points than with Gordon, and in the 93rd percentile for any lineup. (Further swapping Murray for sharpshooting sixth man Strawther has been unbelievably potent, albeit on barely over 100 possessions).

What changes? Some of it is understandable. The Westbrook-led starters get into transition at a a top-decile rate despite being bad at forcing turnovers and defensive rebounding. Those two things usually jump-start the break, but Westbrook is more than happy to push off made baskets, too. He has always been an anthropomorphic NOS tank. Inject him into any offensive engine to watch that thing giddy up and go:

Notice that Westbrook wasn’t the one who made that basket; Synergy says he’s in the 16th percentile as a transition finisher this year. But there’s tremendous value in attacking unset defenses, particularly with Jokic around to clean up the mess. Since December 6th, Westbrook has driven 9.4 times on just 65 touches per game, about the same rate as Giannis Antetokounmpo, and he has the sixth-highest assist rate on those drives.

That passing sings. Despite (or perhaps because of) his gaudy assist totals, Westbrook has long been underrated as a pure passing technician. This forty-foot lefty bounce pass splitting two defenders is a sexy little number:

Unsurprisingly, Westbrook had instant-oatmeal chemistry with Jokic in both directions. Westbrook’s ability to understand where teammates want to catch the ball meshes beautifully with Jokic’s Picasso creativity. Jokic misses here, but this is a perfect example of the mind meld the two players share:

And Westbrook’s underrated cutting generates easy attempts for the team, even if he occasionally glitches on the shot. You don’t see too many airballed layups, but the fact that the Nuggets could even create a shot this good is still promising:

Over time, Westbrook has gradually developed some ionic bonds with Jamal Murray, too. Murray has looked very comfortable next to Westbrook in more of a combo guard role. Westbrook is a historically great hit-ahead passer, so Murray’s been digging out clever positioning, secure in the knowledge that someone other than Jokic is capable of finding him:

It’s not all good. The turnovers have been a problem, although the team is inclined to forgive errors of aggression. Westbrook’s usual shooting warts are still fully on display. The 32% he’s shooting from the three-point line this season is the best accuracy he’s posted since the 2016-17 season, nearly a decade ago. Westbrook has actually been quite good on his few corner threes, but he’s below 25% on above-the-break triples, which he shoots far more often.

Defenses certainly don’t respect Westbrook’s shot, but it’s arguably less damaging on the Nuggets than on nearly any other team. Why? Well, in other places, defenses would put their center on Westbrook and let them play free safety. But on the Nuggets, all big bodies need to stay attached to Jokic. So even if Westbrook’s defender has the freedom to roam, they aren’t the sort of intimidating backline defenders who might usually roam the paint. In the best situations, Westbrook can turn a defense’s disrespect against them, like when he manufactures this switch of Spencer Dinwiddie onto Jokic:

On the other side of the court, I once described Westbrook’s defense as making mean faces and running in random directions, but that was the old Russ. Present-day Westbrook has been sometimes awesome, occasionally abysmal, but surprisingly solid overall. Denver’s transition defense is not good, and Westbrook’s casual jogs back aren’t helpful. He’s still vulnerable to back cuts, and there are possessions where he doesn’t quite seem to know what he’s supposed to be doing:

However, these possessions are far fewer than they used to be. Westbrook revitalized himself as an on-ball defender under Ty Lue for the Clippers in recent seasons, shedding some of his worst tendencies. This year, he’s posting his highest combined stock (steal+block) rate ever on a per-possession basis. Advanced metrics like EPM and LEBRON grade him as a well above-average defender overall, although they’ve taken more of a shine to his defensive impact than I have.

He’s spent 21% of his time guarding centers and power forwards, per BBall-Index, where his strength, low center of gravity, and all-around orneriness are assets. Notably, he stonewalled Victor Wembanyama one-on-one a few times during the Nuggets’ epic back-to-back games against the Spurs:

Synergy defensive metrics are notoriously finicky, but they showed that Russ has allowed a better-than-median point-for-possession on every playtype they track, whether it’s guarding the pick-and-roll ballhandler, closing out on spot-up shooters, chasing around screens or hand-offs, switching onto big men in the post, tagging rollers, or jailing dudes in isolation. Some of these are based on insanely small sample sizes, but it’s still impressive.

Of course, while Westbrook has done well individually on that end, the starting group’s overall defense has suffered of late. The Nuggets are perilously small without Gordon. None of the current starting group can consistently guard the sort of big forwards that litter the Western Conference like Gordon can, and the Nuggets sorely miss AG’s verticality and rebounding. Additionally, teams have been lights out from deep against the Westbrook starting group, punishing the lineup’s defensive rating.

It’s not Westbrook’s fault, exactly. Denver just needs what Gordon provides. The offense has been so incendiary that the defense’s relative woes mostly have been swept under the rug, but coach Mike Malone undoubtedly has noticed the difference.

Still, statistically, at least, Russ has been far better than could have been reasonably expected. He’s been a fine individual defender and neutral offensive force at worst (and I’d argue a smidge better than that), but his impact goes beyond the stats. It’s tricky to judge chemistry or leadership from a TV screen, but reporters have relayed how much the team values his edginess, something missing since Bruce Brown departed after the championship parade. Michael Malone mentioned in the preseason that Westbrook’s trash-talking had become contagious, spurring a notoriously quiet Nuggets group. And I can’t get over this adorable clip of his excitement after an emphatic Christian Braun three from the other day:

Kids today talk about auras, but the kids from yesterday would say that the vibes are immaculate.

That does beg an obvious question. Things are going swimmingly right now, but with Aaron Gordon returning from injury yesterday, how does Malone optimize his rotation? “I don’t look forward,” he replied coyly, and he’ll have a few days to figure it out as Gordon ramps up his minutes. But soon, he’ll need to make some hard decisions.

Because despite all the welcome success Westbrook has had next to Jokic… he’s virtually only had it next to Jokic. When those two are on the court together, the Nuggets obliterate opponents. In the ~750 possessions Jokic has sat and Westbrook has played, the Nuggets have had a point differential in the second (2nd!) percentile.

The fundamental problem with every Nuggets team for the last infinite years is that they get destroyed in the non-Jokic minutes. Rather than alleviating that crisis, Westbrook has somehow further elevated the Jokic on minutes and worsened the Jokic off minutes! He’s both solution and problem.

That said, things aren’t quite as bad as they sound. The Nuggets with Westbrook and Murray together (no Jokic) have only been outscored by -3.8 points per 100 possessions, a respectably poor number. Recent lineups with those two, the shooter Strawther, the help defender Watson, and the fossil DeAndre Jordan have actually outscored opponents in their limited time together. So Malone may have found some units that can doggy-paddle in the deep end while the big man catches his breath, although we’ll need a much larger sample to be sure.

Should Westbrook stay on the court for tip-offs? Fans are clamoring for it; his 13-4 record as a starter sure is shiny, and certain lineup stats support it. With Gordon back, I believe Westbrook will return to a bench role (for now) but will play bigger minutes with the core group. Gordon, Braun, and perhaps even Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr., on nights where they don’t have it, may all see minutes shifted or reduced to make room for him.

Murray’s uneven start to the season and partial redundancy with Westbrook make him an intriguing Sixth Man option, but the team is simply too financially invested in him to consider a bench role any time soon. It is tempting to give Westbrook a longer look as the sole ballhandler, however. Despite some obvious shooting limitations, the Westbrook/Braun/Porter/Gordon/Jokic lineup has an elite point differentials in its 210 possessions. It’s unclear how that would hold up in the long term, but it’s worth examining — and in fact, Westbrook played two more minutes than Murray in the team’s comeback win over Dallas yesterday.

Regardless of what happens with the starters, Malone will likely ride hot hands for closing lineups. He has traditionally preferred stability to experimentation, but this question is far from settled.

For a guy brought in with the lowest of expectations (and salary), Westbrook has been a revelation. But is he merely deepening their already-existing dilemma? Or can he be part of the solution? We won’t have a definitive answer for several months, but I’ll be eagerly watching to find out.