Isaiah Hartenstein is the big news; Paul George and Klay Thompson can wait

Paul George made us tap our feet until 3:30 a.m. EST to sign a contract, and Klay Thompson dragged it out until 2:30 this afternoon. So, in turn, I will make them wait for my analysis. That’ll show them!

Jokes aside, the Isaiah Hartenstein deal to the Thunder is so much more interesting to discuss. It completely upends Oklahoma City’s strategy in a way I didn’t see coming.

First, the numbers. The Oklahoma City Thunder signed the 26-year-old center to a three-year, $87M contract. Details are trickling out, but Stefan Bondy at The New York Post is reporting that it’s “frontloaded and the final year will not be guaranteed,” which may or may not mean a team option.

This is a fascinating move for a variety of reasons. Long a favorite of NBA nerds, Hartenstein was woefully underused in New York until an injury to Mitchell Robinson last season. After Robinson went down, Hartenstein stepped up, and he never looked back.

Hartenstein ended last year as the second-most impactful defender in the NBA, per EPM. That may be slightly overstating his case, but almost any number you look at loves him. He was one of only four players (min. 500 minutes) in the league to finish with block and steal rates both over 2.0% (Robinson, interestingly, was one of the other three). He allowed just 52.5% shooting at the rim, ninth-best of players who defended at least 100 such attempts, and the Knicks allowed just 111.8 points per 100 possessions when Hartenstein was on the floor (83rd percentile) despite uneven defenders around him.

He has clever hands, good anticipation, and a high motor:

Offensively, Hartenstein is a nice mix of the old and new. His screens vaporize defenders into so much dust, and he’s one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. He can’t stretch the floor, but he’s an expert finisher in the paint, consistently flirting with 70% at the rim and 50% from floater range (the latter a particularly elite mark).

It’s easy to imagine Shai Gilgeous-Alexander knifing into the paint and hitting Hartenstein with the dump-off pass for a pretty little raindrop:

But Hartenstein’s best ability is his playmaking. The Thunder, as a roster, have plenty of okay passers, but almost none who are above-average after the loss of Josh Giddey. Hartenstein might be the best playmaker relative to position on the roster, giving OKC some intriguing new avenues for offensive shenanigans. The Thunder’s bevy of talented off-ball movers should feast on cuts around Hartenstein:

Hartenstein had a monster assist rate on the Los Angeles Clippers, but New York never leaned into it as much as they could or should have. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault is one of the most creative offensive minds in the game, and I suspect he’ll find ways to feature Hartenstein’s post-hub playmaking in a more common four-out offense (as opposed to the five-out lineups the Thunder relied upon almost exclusively last season).

No, Hartenstein can’t shoot, but he’s better than almost anyone at leveraging the resulting lack of defensive attention to create advantages. He is the most aggressive ball-abandoner in the game, leaving the basketball bouncing all alone on an ostensible dribble hand-off to sprint into a trailing defender like a fullback:

Overall, Hartenstein is a well-rounded center worth $87M in a vacuum. The big question revolves around how he fits on a Thunder team that already has Chet Holmgren.

All last season, we heard about how the Thunder were fine punting on rebounding and giving up some interior size to augment their spacing. It was an unconventional but defensible approach. This signing is a complete flip that will change how the Thunder look and operate on both ends of the floor.

For one, you don’t pay $87M to a center to play 18 minutes a night behind Chet Holmgren. I’m not 100% sure if Hartenstein will start or be a high-minutes reserve (I’m guessing the latter, but the Thunder themselves might not know yet). Either way, Hartenstein and Holmgren will be sharing the court for a decent chunk of time, pushing Holmgren to power forward.

Defensively, there is massive potential here. The Thunder seem primed to have Hartenstein handle bigger bodies while utilizing Holmgren as perhaps the league’s most potent shotblocking free safety. Holmgren will have matchups against elite power forwards where he might struggle to keep up, as he isn’t as quick as his scrawniness might indicate. Still, he should be more than capable of making up for it as a weakside helper apparating out of nowhere to send layups into the sixth row.

Hartenstein is by no means a miracle cure against the best bigs, and he sometimes struggled against a hampered Joel Embiid in last year’s playoffs. However, he’s better defensively against the behemoths than Holmgren (or pretty much any other option that was available to the Thunder, it should be noted). On the flip side, Hartenstein also gives those players a safe spot on defense; luckily, the Thunder can always return to their five-out lineups if that ends up being the more advantageous play.

When it comes to crunch time, a Holmgren-Hartenstein-Jalen Williams-SGA-Lu Dort-Alex Caruso top six will be nearly impenetrable.

There is a little more uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. Holmgren’s shot tailed off at the end of the season, but he’s still a capable three-point shooter. “Capable” three-point shooting might not be enough; improvement to accuracy and especially volume will be necessary to prevent teams from cheating off Holmgren to stymie Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams drives.

Holmgren’s ballhandling and agility were pluses as a center, but he will be one of the slowest power forwards in the league. It’s hard to imagine him doing much damage off the dribble when Hartenstein is on the court clogging the paint. On the other hand, bumping Jalen Williams to small forward might give him a strength mismatch to obliterate smaller defenders in quick post actions.

Hartenstein and Holmgren present an intriguing pair of screeners, Hartenstein as a traditional steamroller and Holmgren as the pick-and-pop artist. Hartenstein’s rolling and dunker-spot presence add a new element to the Thunder’s offense, but it will violate the sacred spacing principles the Thunder spent all of last season developing. Jalen Williams and SGA may find the lane a bit more crowded than they are used to on their rack attacks.

Overall, I don’t think the Hartenstein signing will help the Thunder’s offense much in the aggregate, but the playoffs are about the trees, not the forest. Having optionality is everything. He gives OKC a new look for playoff defenses zeroed in on the Thunder’s usual tricks. It’s not remotely the same situation, but it is sort of like the Celtics turning to Kristaps Porzingis post-ups as a curveball when their drive-and-kick game sputtered; sometimes, teams just need an off-speed pitch!

Hartenstein and Holmgren will only share the court for a handful of minutes each half, and the team can adjust on a night-to-night basis. If it turns out that there is a compatibility problem, the Thunder can go with either Hartenstein or Holmgren as the solo big out there. They have the luxury of mixing and matching whatever parts they need.

From a bookkeeping perspective, the contract's non-guaranteed third year is a big deal, allowing the Thunder flexibility in the year that Williams and Holmgren will both be due monstrous extensions. If it’s frontloaded, even better, as the Thunder currently have plenty of space to spend that may dry up in a few seasons.

The best part is that there isn’t nearly as much opportunity cost as a nearly nine-digit contract usually incurs. The Thunder’s cap sheet is so clean, and the team’s treasure chest of picks and players so bountiful, that they could still be major players in the trade market if they choose to be.

Maybe they won’t! Like with Boston, you need a microscope to find nits to pick with this roster. The defensive rebounding still won’t be a strength even with Hartenstein (although it should be better), and they could use a tertiary dribble-drive threat for days when SGA or Williams struggles. But the additions of Hartenstein and Caruso (and the addition by subtraction of Giddey) and the re-signings of Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins have turned this into the best roster in the West (sorry, Dallas). No one is better equipped to go toe-to-toe with the Boston Celtics.

When I started this piece, I wasn’t 100% sure how I felt about this transaction, but I’ve convinced myself. OKC made a great pickup, and I’m looking forward to what they can do next season.