JAMES HARDEN/DARIUS GARLAND TRADE GRADES

Judging the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers

It shouldn’t have surprised me, but it did.

News broke late Monday night that James Harden and the Clippers were mutually seeking a trade partner to accept Harden. It didn’t take long for the details to be finalized.

Los Angeles Clippers get: Darius Garland, one second-rounder
Cleveland Cavaliers get: James Harden

Why would the Clippers make this move? Well, two theories:

First: Harden and LAC fear a big Aspiration punishment. If the league does bring down the hammer, it’s much better to trade Harden while his value is still high and get at least one theoretical future building block in Garland. In this situation, players like Garland are better than draft picks, since the league could very well erase any picks received in a trade but is unlikely to punish a previously-uninvolved player.

That’s plausible, but far from certain. Second, and more obviously correctly, is that Harden wants to get paid, and the Clippers don’t want to pay him.

Harden has always prioritized getting his bag (hard to blame him! I’d like more money, too). He has also been very, very diligent about inflicting pain upon teams who don’t do what he wants (much easier to blame him for that).

But Harden literally just signed an extension with LAC a few months ago! It was a two-year, $81 million contract, with the 2026-27 season being a rare partially guaranteed player option. Harden, of course, was coming off yet another disappointing playoff ending and had just posted his worst shooting efficiency since his rookie year; perhaps he felt his leverage wasn’t high enough to demand a longer-term contract. And the Clippers have made it clear they’re prioritizing cap space for 2027, when a host of big names theoretically become available (we’ll see).

So Harden had something to prove if he wanted one more big payday. Nothing motivates Harden like money, and he’s been phenomenal this season. He’s averaging more points per game than he has since his Houston days (three teams ago!), and he’s looking far burstier getting to the rack again:

The coaches didn’t select him as an All-Star reserve, but I did.

We know about Harden’s playoff disappointments. He’ll excel in the first few games of a series, then fall apart when it really matters. But that also undersells just how good he is at driving wins during the regular season. That matters to a hot Cleveland team just two games out of the two-seed!

And here’s the sneaky secret. Darius Garland has been rough and doesn’t look like he’ll be better anytime soon. Bad toes are a brutal injury, particularly for shifty direction-changers like Garland. They’ve ended careers. Garland had started to look a little quicker, but then he hurt a different digit in mid-January. At this point, it’s hard to say how much of Garland we’ll see, or how good he’ll be when he does limp onto the court. One injured piggie could be a fluke; two look dangerously like a pattern. That’s 20% of your foot phalanges!

Garland also has his own share of playoff disappointments, some health-related and some not. He doesn’t have the lengthy history of Harden’s failures, but this also isn’t someone who has consistently risen to the occasion yet, either.

Look, would I be excited about adding Harden in a vacuum? Not particularly, especially since the Cavs will undoubtedly need to pay him. And he’s always a threat to sulk his way out of town (although, at 36 and counting, you can’t help but wonder how many more times that would actually work).

Here’s the sunny-side view for Cavs fans: Harden will come in and absorb his typical massive minutes load for a Cleveland team in desperate need of ballhandling and playmaking next to Donovan Mitchell. His free-throw drawing will be a boon. Mitchell, who has habitually worn down in the playoffs from putting on superhero performance after superhero performance, will be fresher when it matters. Harden’s pick-and-roll game should rejuvenate an inconsistent Jarrett Allen, and perhaps even unlock some of Evan Mobley’s offensive potential — few players have weaponized their roller like the hirsute point guard.

While Harden’s defensive effort levels are execrable, he’s at least switchy and strong. Trading him for the try-harder but much smaller Garland could be a defensive wash that provides more flexibility. And even if the best version of Garland is better than the best version of Harden (which isn’t cut-and-dry at all), the median outcome right now with Harden looks better than the median outcome with Garland.

Do I believe all of that?