Keegan Murray, Wembanyama's supporting cast, and more
Bonus Sunday article as I finish off the mailbag!
Part II of my mailbag (Part I is here). Again, if you asked me a question and I didn’t answer it Friday, today, or via email, let me know! I think I got to everyone, but it’s hard to know for sure.
Thanks to everyone who participated and to everyone reading!
Brian K: Help us Kings fans understand why Keegan Murray’s shot is so inconsistent. Is it a confidence issue? Is Mike Brown not using him effectively? Anything else?
This question got juicier as I dove down the rabbit hole, so thanks for asking!
Murray shot 41% from deep as a rookie on high volume, a historical shooting season for a rookie that may have set expectations a tad too high. He’s down to 35% from deep this season.
Murray’s outside shooting has taken a downturn even in optimal scenarios. He’s only hitting 38% of his wide-open triples this season, compared to 47% last year. Is confidence an issue? It’s hard to say for sure, as his volume is still similar to last season (although he has been shooting fewer threes in February). Even as a rookie, Murray passed up more semi-contested shots than he should have. He’s never quite been the robotic gunner coach Mike Brown wants him to be.
Film and statistical review suggest he’s being used a bit differently, with more emphasis on dribble hand-offs and on-ball creation and less on simply spotting up in the corner. Tellingly, Murray is averaging nearly two dribbles per touch after averaging fewer than one last season.
Coach Brown wants Murray to be more assertive looking for his shot, and he’s been successful inside the arc: he’s shooting far more often and accurately on two-pointers this season. This isn’t a shot I’d want him to take often, but I love the aggression Murray shows with this step-back off the pick-and-roll:
Murray has also dramatically improved his defense. That should be the confidence booster he needs because it guarantees he won’t fall out of the rotation. I’ve heard some suggest that perhaps his increased defensive responsibility is contributing to fatigue, negatively impacting his shot, but I can’t find any evidence of that: Murray shoots far better in the second half of games than the first (peaking in third quarters, interestingly).
Given that teams still treat him like a shooter regardless of his percentage, Murray’s defense ensures he’ll have plenty of opportunities to find his shot again.
And Murray was remarkably consistent as a rookie. Although his monthly shooting splits have been up and down this season, expecting a second-year player to hit 38% or better on high volume each month but one (as he did last season!) may be an unrealistic standard. Plenty of shooters have entire down seasons. Miami’s Duncan Robinson lost his spot in the rotation and only hit 33% two seasons ago; he’s back up to 41% and playing major minutes this year.
I think Murray will be fine from outside. It’s frustrating when he goes through cold stretches and looks tentative, but he also dropped 12 triples in one game just a few months ago. The fact he hasn’t let it impact his defense is a great sign, because as long as he’s playing well on that end, he’ll be given ample opportunity to play better on the other.
KA1Z3R: There's a lot of talk about Wembanyama's ascent and the future of the Spurs. However, the future of the Spurs will need to involve the right pieces around Wemby. Is there anyone you view as a long-term piece on the current roster? Not gonna lie, I don't see anybody who feels like a part of the big picture with Vassell and Keldon both proving to be inconsistent and not taking those next leaps that were expected.
The Spurs certainly hope there are some useful pieces here, but it very much remains to be seen. I’ve only got two guys that I really want to see next to Wemby in the long term, and one projects to be a role player.