March Heroes: Which NBA risers are for real?

Examining Jalen Green and three more surging players

March is always a funky time in the NBA season.

Great teams start resting players. Good teams jostle for playoff positioning. Less-good teams suddenly have to deal with spontaneous bouts of contagious tendinitis, poor souls.

Schedule peculiarities, an abundance of shots, and ample playing time always ferment opportunities for some players to put up monstrous stats. The trick is figuring out what’s wine and what’s just foul-smelling grape juice.

Today, we’ll look at four players who have been playing superbly in March and try to decide how much of their increased production is real.

Jalen Green, Houston Rockets

March stats: 37 mins, 28.5 p/6.1r/3.7a/1.2s, 50% FG%, 43% from deep on 9.7 3PA/gm
Rest of year: 30 mins, 17.9p/4.8r/3.3a/0.7s, 40% FG%, 31% from deep on 6.7 3PA/gm

Green is the most complicated — and interesting — case of all.

Much of his March success has been attributed to his increased usage since Alperen Sengun’s season-ending injury (his last game was March 10th). Green’s been taking five more shots per game, but they are also easier shots. The Rockets have fully leaned into Jabari Smith Jr. at the five, meaning there isn’t a traditional post player in the lane impeding his drives, and Green’s taking advantage of the space.

Despite his high-flying acrobatics, Green isn’t the cleanest finisher in traffic. He’s able to out-athlete most foes one-on-one, however, leading to far better conversion rates in a cleaner paint:

Contrast that open lane with the immediate, strong help the Toronto Raptors showed in a game a few weeks earlier. The second Green sees a path to the hoop, both Sengun’s defender and Amen Thompson’s defender help off their respective non-shooters and beeline to the basket, forcing Green into an unideal pull-up jumper:

It’s not as simple as “less Sengun = more Green,” however. The turning point wasn’t Sengun’s injury but instead a stretch of late February games in which coach Ime Udoka benched Green for the entire fourth quarter. Udoka does not play people who can’t help the team, and his moves were a message to the young star that he needed to be better. Green, to his immense credit, responded with effort and focus.

The Rockets had won four of their five games in March with the Turkish delight. Green averaged 24 points per game in those contests, too, and more than that if you include a 34-point outburst in their final February contest, a loss to Phoenix. And those efforts were based on strong two-point shooting, not being hot from deep. 40% of his shots were at the rim, well above his season average of 33% and a very high number for a guard, and he converted an excellent 80% of those attempts.

Many of those rim attacks were in transition, which may or may not be sustainable long-term. The Rockets have been playing faster for several months, which has let Green get into clean looks earlier in the shot clock.

But in the games since Sengun’s injury, Green’s shot profile has shifted to the perimeter. N.B. Lindberg has a more detailed breakdown, but Green has become more prolific and accurate with both catch-and-shoots and pull-ups. Bombing from deep like this is far above his historical norm, but he’s always had the potential to become a deadly shooter.

I’ll admit, I’ve never been high on Jalen Green. But even outside of his hot shooting in March, there have been major improvements in other areas throughout this season. His defense under Udoka has dramatically improved to the point where he’s passable (I promise that’s a compliment), and his passing has become far more decisive. He’s not a well-rounded player, exactly, but no longer is he a one-dimensional volume scorer, either.

March has shown a ceiling that had only been theoretical so far — and it’s driven winning! The Rockets have chalked 10 Ws in a row. Sure, it’s been an extraordinarily weak stretch of schedule (a classic reason for the rise of many March heroes), but you can only beat the teams in front of you.

There have been so many positive directional indicators moving in the same direction for Green that at least some have to stick long-term… right?

Ayo Dosunmo, Chicago Bulls

March stats: 37 mins, 17.2 p/3.1r/5.4a/0.9s, 50% FG%, 39% from deep on 5.4 3PA/gm
Rest of year: 27 mins, 10.5p/2.7r/2.6a/0.9s, 50% FG%, 41% from deep on 3.5 3PA/gm

Dosunmo has seen a significant increase in minutes since the New Year started, so most of his scoring delta has resulted from that increase in minutes. But that’s not meant to diminish the speedster’s impact; the fact that the three-point shot has scaled is encouraging, and his ability to get into the teeth of the defense and finish at the rim against NBA starters is an excellent sign for his long-term viability.