Most intriguing moves of 2025 free agency, day one

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We have a lot to cover, but I want to discuss two things before we get moving.

First, I am grateful for all the shares, comments, and likes you all give my articles. That stuff matters! This is my job, and the more interaction my posts generate, the greater visibility they receive from Substack’s algorithm, leading to more paid subscribers down the road (hopefully!). So thank you to those of you who are habitual likers/commenters; it’s always noted and appreciated (I try to answer every comment!). And I’d encourage anyone else who likes an article to exercise your thumbs — that stuff is small for you, but big for me.

We’re still in the exciting part of the offseason, but news will slow eventually. I am thankful in advance for your continued support through the dry periods, and I’ll do my best to provide fun, engaging work throughout the summer (as I’ve always done in the past).

Moving to the basketball world, we had some seismic but underreported meta-news yesterday: The NBA announced that they are projecting a salary cap increase of just 7% in 2026-27, contrary to a universally expected 10%.

Everyone — and I mean everyone — had assumed we’d be looking at salary cap increases of 10% each year going forward under the rich new national TV deal. This surprising estimate speaks to the league’s growing fear that the traditional regional sports network (RSN) golden goose is truly cooked, with cranberry sauce on the side.

The timing of the announcement is insane to me. Zach Lowe said teams were told just yesterday morning — right before the “official” beginning of free agency. Considering many of the deals signed had been negotiated for days and weeks prior to the official start, this seems wildly unfair. There will be serious ramifications for a lot of teams that thought they would be just under the [luxury tax/first apron/second apron] and will now be just over their dreaded threshold of choice. Mark my words, there will be a lot of salary dumping next season.

That 7% number is just an estimate at this point, and the league typically prefers to be slightly cautious. But assuming we will have 10% raises going forward clearly isn’t safe. GM jobs just got a lot more complicated.

Anyway, enough of that. Let’s talk about the fun stuff.

Denver Nuggets trade Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 unprotected first to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson

There’s too much going on for a full-blown trade grade piece, but this is a decent deal for both sides, particularly Denver.

It’s not a one-sided victory. Johnson shares some of the same flaws as MPJ. He is overrated defensively and prone to health issues (Porter has actually played significantly more games of late). At full health and peak form, MPJ’s size, high release point, and rebounding make him a better fit on the Nuggets.

But Johnson is a steadier player than MPJ. He’s far more reliable with the ball, nearly as good a shooter (arguably better on the move), and even if overrated, better and much more versatile defensively. His ability to handle the rock a little bit will reduce the offensive creation burden on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. His median outcome is stronger than Porter’s.

More importantly, both players have two years left on their deals. Johnson is owed $44 million; MPJ will collect nearly $80 million. For a cash-strapped Nuggets team that would’ve needed to attach an asset to Porter to ship him out no matter what, it is a clear win to get back a good player.

The Nets collect what could be a very tasty first-round pick that hits when Jokic will be in his late 30s and likely retired (or close to it). Unprotected picks that far out tend to hold more value to front offices than they probably should, but I can see a future where that pick becomes one of the better trade assets in the league. The market did not prove to be as frothy for Johnson over the last two years as Brooklyn expected; taking on the Porter money would be a bummer for 29 teams, but Brooklyn can afford it for this reward.

Jabari Smith Jr, Houston Rockets
Five years, $122 million

The 2025-26 season will be Smith’s last on his rookie scale contract, and he earned himself a nice nine-figure payday for the next half-decade.

I’m planning to write a player profile on Smith later this summer, so I don’t want to spoil myself. For now, let’s just say that while I’m a little lower on Smith than most, big men who are pretty good defenders and pretty good positional shooters are rare. Rarity gets paid, and I expected this to be closer to $30 million in average annual value.

Instead, Houston proved once again to be one of the only teams in the NBA willing to negotiate hard with their talent. Despite his youth and two-way talent, there’s no guarantee that Smith is even a starter on a loaded Rockets team next year. Naz Reid (more below!) is an interesting comparison point for big-money, big-impact sixth men.

Add this contract to trading for Durant, stealing Dorian Finney-Smith (one of the best 3-and-D guys available) from the Lakers, and bolstering their big man depth with Clint Capela, and this has been one hell of an offseason for executive Rafael Stone and his team.

Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
Five years, $125 million (fifth-year player option)

The Wolves also re-signed Julius Randle to a three-year, $100 million contract with a third-year player option. With Rudy Gobert on the books for three more years, Minnesota has locked in a frontcourt that has helped them to two straight Western Conference Finals.

The Randle contract is largely what I expected; I wasn’t as certain what would happen with Naz Reid. The Wolves faced a financial conundrum that essentially forced them to choose between Reid and 3-and-D wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They made their choice.

Reid is one of the league’s best-shooting big men, canning 41% and 38% of his threes in his last two years on strong volume. He also has an elite face-up game, pump-faking slower defenders or pummeling smaller ones for ambidextrous half-hooks and graceful layups at the rim:

Typically a play finisher, Reid even showcased a little bit more passing last season, setting a career-high in assist rate. Entering his age-26 season, there’s reason to believe that Reid can continue to improve.

But Reid is a limited rim protector with a barely adequate amount of switchability on the perimeter. He’s not atrocious on defense, but he’s definitely a player we’ve seen picked on in the playoffs for multiple runs now.

Is Reid worth $125 million, particularly when he’s unlikely to start? That appeared to be the market price, as he reportedly drew plenty of interest from other squads. I’m not sure if he was offered more money, but he could have had a starting job. Instead, he chose to stay in a super-sub role in Minny.

Naz Reid is also a huge fan favorite, and with new ownership coming in, perhaps there was some consideration to keeping the locals happy.

Losing NAW will hurt, but Minnesota has some young guys who can theoretically soak up those minutes. 3-and-D wings are a rare archetype, but hot-shooting big men might be even rarer. Time will tell if this was the right choice.

Cleveland Cavaliers trade Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for Lonzo Ball

This is ultimately a minor move that I am unnecessarily excited to talk about.

Chicago loves these one-on-one challenge trades, swapping Alex Caruso (the fourth-most-impactful Thunderer on this year’s title team) for Josh Giddey last offseason and doing this one now.

A healthy Ball is a better player than Okoro. He’s a fantastic passer and team defender, and the advanced metrics still loved him this year despite his inefficient shooting.

But I’ve seen people killing Chicago purely on muscle memory (they’re an easy team to rip). This time, it isn’t really warranted. At this point in his career, Ball can’t be counted on to play even 55 matches in a season, and his skills make him a far better fit on a championship contender than a team scraping for regular-season wins.

Okoro has shown hints of an improved corner three-ball (although still at too low a volume to be a real threat) and should help the Bulls with their pell-mell pace. His on-ball defense and shaky shot are a little redundant with Ayo Dosunmu and Tre Jones (whom the Bulls just re-signed), but Okoro is 24, and I’ve always had a soft spot for him. He brings speed and physicality to a Bulls team that wanted to upgrade both.

For Cleveland, Okoro is a guy who’d fallen out of the playoff rotation. He habitually loses confidence in his shot when the lights get bright. His in-your-jersey defense is something Cleveland will miss as a change of pace, but Ball’s game should be more playoff-proof. While it’s anyone’s guess if Ball can make it to the end of the season healthy, he has far more situational upside than Okoro if he does.

Ball excels at hit-ahead passes and should jump-start an occasionally stagnant Cleveland transition attack. He also provides important point guard depth; the Cavs lost Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome in free agency, and All-Star Darius Garland will miss the beginning of the season as he recovers from toe surgery.

In sum, this is a reasonable move for both teams with notable upside for Cleveland.

Tyus Jones, Orlando Magic
One year, $7 million

The Magic are weeks removed from starting Cory Joseph in the playoffs. Cory Joseph! Now, their point guard rotation will be Jalen Suggs, Tyus Jones, and Desmond Bane in a pinch. That’s a heck of an upgrade.

Nobody noticed because the Suns were *insert puke emoji* last season, but Jones was basically the best version of himself on offense, canning 41% from deep for a second straight year. He might be the most effective traditional pick-and-roll player in central Florida. Orlando fans, sit down for this — any minutes he plays next to Bane will give Orlando two backcourt snipers at the same time. Exotic stuff!

I don’t want to oversell it too much; Jones is overtaxed as a starter and has real defensive and athletic deficiencies. It feels like every summer I get too excited about Jones going to a new team, exaggerating the impact he’ll have:

Perhaps it’s a personal failing, but I can’t blame Washington or Phoenix’s failures on Jones. He might work for Orlando! There wasn’t a better meshing of need and fit done yesterday at any skill level.

The Magic’s ceiling depends upon the development of their two wing stars, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. But the shooting talent infusion of Bane, Jones, and (hopefully) Orlando’s rookie Jase Richardson should go a long way toward raising their offense’s floor.

The Magic haven’t had an attack better than 21st since the 2015-16 season; I’m betting they’ll beat that this year.

Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies
Three years, $28 million (third-year player option)

This number came in much lower than I expected, making it a clear win for a Memphis team that desperately needed additional scoring punch. On the other hand, Ty Jerome’s nightmare playoff run apparently cost him some serious bucks.

The Grizzlies had a big day, signing Jaren Jackson to a $240 million renegotiation-and-extension that comes very close to a maximum contract (but eliminates the risk of Jackson demanding a supermax if he makes All-NBA next year) and bringing back Santi Aldama for three years at an eyebrow-raising $52 million.

Jerome should help Memphis as someone who can replace Ja Morant or play next to him (offensively, at least; that defensive duo could really struggle). He might be an even better fit next to Scotty Pippen Jr. or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, both of whom would let Jerome handle the ball more and ease his defensive burden.

Jerome was impossibly efficient last year, canning 57% of his twos and 44% of his triples; those percentages will come down some. Memphis is making a bet he can perform at something resembling those numbers, but at least they didn’t have to push too many chips in to find out.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks
Four years, $62 million (fourth-year player option)

To repeat myself from last week: I’m having straight-up sinful thoughts about Atlanta.

NAW is one of my favorite role players in the league, and he joins an Atlanta team that has pressed every right button this offseason. Alexander-Walker is an elite 3-and-D option who held his own against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the conference finals and even had some big scoring games.

Interesting thought: The Hawks will almost certainly start last year’s DPOY finalist Dyson Daniels next to Trae Young in the backcourt, but I could make a very compelling case that NAW would be a better starter. He is nearly as good a defender and brings much more offensively. Coach Quin Snyder won’t rock the boat right away, but that’s something I’ll be monitoring.

With the later addition of one of the league’s best three-point shooters, Luke Kennard, Atlanta has now upgraded their rotation in a serious way while also adding what could be an excellent first-round pick in next year’s draft (the most favorable of the Pelicans and Bucks, two teams teetering on the edge of disaster).

It’s been a fantastic few weeks for first-year executive Onsi Saleh.

These are just the deals I got most excited about, but if you have any thoughts or comments about anything that happened yesterday, let them rip in the comments!