OKC's depth has been the difference

Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Jared McCain are showing up and (mostly) showing out. The Spurs bench? Not so much.

Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault does not care for your preconceived notions on rotation management.

Daigneault famously goes deep into his bench, but without the consistency that most players crave. Two years ago, in a playoff series against the Pelicans, he explained his philosophy:

“There’s advantages to having depth… You never know what a series is gonna deal you in terms of the hand you have to play. If we (played) 8 guys last night, and we had to pivot to 1 of the other 3/4 that didn't play, now you're like dusting them off. They haven't gotten in a game yet. They haven't touched the floor yet. They haven't gotten a taste yet. And now you're going to them and it's somewhat reactive.”

And last year, reserve Aaron Wiggins had this to say:

“Mark is gonna experiment… He’s gonna throw you in there when you least expect it. There’s gonna be moments where you might be ready and he doesn’t go to. And there’s gonna be moments when you’re not ready and he calls you. You gotta be as ready as you can be," Wiggins continued.

All this tinkering has led to a battle-hardened team, one where even the deepest bench guy can come in and produce. For example, Kenrich Williams played just two minutes in Games 1-3 combined before logging 23 in Game 4 and 12 in Game 5. Nearly all Thunder players get the call-up eventually; they just don’t know when.

I like perusing nbarotations.info to see how team minutes are distributed across games. It shows a stark difference in how Daigneault and his Spurs counterpart Mitch Johnson have managed their rotations:

On the left, the clusters of deep red highlight the heavy minutes load of the Spurs’ healthy starters. The smattering of orange on the right signifies how many more players have logged consistently inconsistent minutes for the Thunder.

Daigneault believes that all of his players have strengths and abilities worth utilizing, but when and how to deploy them may change nightly. That extends even to his superstar. Early in this series against the Spurs, Daigneault was subbing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in and out to match Victor Wembanyama’s minutes; he’s since abandoned that philosophy.

Injuries have played a part in both teams’ rotation decisions, of course. Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, and De’Aaron Fox have missed multiple games, and Dylan Harper hasn’t been the same since tweaking his adductor in Game 2. Wembanyama has been holding his wrist, Holmgren sprayed blood all over the court in Game 4, and Alex Caruso tweaked an ankle last night. And that’s just off the top of my head!

But when it’s a battle of attrition, particularly one this physical, the deeper team has an advantage. In a series where neither Wembanyama nor Gilgeous-Alexander have consistently looked their best (that’s what happens when you’re the focal point of the league’s two most ferocious defenses), the Thunder’s supporting cast has been quicker to rise to the challenge. That’s particularly true for their trio of bench guards.

It starts with Caruso, whose performance this series has been volcanic. Caleb Martin’s explosion against the Celtics in 2023 and Danny Green’s preposterously hot shooting against Miami in the 2013 NBA Finals (he made 25 threes in the series’ first five games! And that was before Steph Curry changed basketball forever, mind you) have always been at the top of my “WTF” role player playoff power rankings. Caruso is fast on his way there.

In five games so far, Caruso is averaging 17 points while shooting 57% from the floor, and he’s somehow shooting a better percentage from three (he’s 18-for-31 from downtown). He’s long been one of the five best defenders in the NBA, and that hasn’t let up one bit. Add it all up, and he’s tied with Victor Wembanyama for the highest cumulative plus/minus in the series at +42. (It’s probably worth pointing out that five different Knicks had a significantly higher plus/minus than that.) It’s always been the case that good things happen for the Thunder when Caruso is on the floor, but it’s been particularly true now, at the most important times. His ability to scale up production to match circumstance is a superpower.

Caruso isn’t the only one. Jared McCain, acquired from the 76ers in a much-bemoaned midseason trade, has embraced the scoring role previously occupied by Williams and Mitchell with the gleeful abandon of a kid let loose in an amusement park.

McCain is averaging more field goal attempts per possession than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s not even pretending to pass, launching 70 often wildly errant field goal attempts to just five assists so far in the series (and three of those dimes came in Game 2). His shooting splits have been — oh god, my computer just screamed.

And yet, McCain has also done just enough at the right times to keep the Spurs on their heels. He’s always on the attack; it’s infectious. Nine invaluable points in the third quarter last night prevented San Antonio from making a run. 24 points keyed a Game 3 win, highlighted by this inspiring take right into the chest of Wembanyama:

(All that said, I thought of Dion Waiters on the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook teams after SGA had to tell McCain to “Calm the f*** down.”)

McCain has had some terrible nights. But role players aren’t expected to be stars all the time, and few have McCain’s ceiling as a scorer and off-ball shooter. When McCain plays well, the Thunder win. He only needs to play well in one of the next two games to power OKC back to the Finals.

And if things go really well, even that might not be necessary. Cason Wallace is getting his hands on every single ball like a basketball-obsessed octopus. He’s averaging 6.4 deflections per game, half again as many as his league-leading regular-season mark of 4.4. It’s unbelievable that the Thunder bring two of the league’s five best perimeter defenders off the bench. Wallace’s ability to evaporate passing lanes like an expanding sun has freaked out the Spurs ballhandlers. Even when you think he’s beat, check the rear-view mirror. He’s a homing missile locked onto the ball:

In the silver-and-black jerseys, the tale is different. Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes are shooting a combined 20-for-59, Luke Kornet has looked befuddled while putting up the worst plus/minus in the series, and Carter Bryant (who still deserves more time as a small-ball center) has alternated electric defense with soul-crushing mistakes.

Johnson’s struggles are both predictable and devastating. The Spurs desperately need his scoring punch, but Johnson’s straight-line drives won’t consistently work against a Thunder team filled with digging helpers and savage rim protectors. Last night was his first decent performance this series, and it still wasn’t enough. (I still can’t believe he won Sixth Man of the Year because he made some threes and makes people laugh.)

Kornet’s inability to impact the game in any way has been even more discouraging. The Thunder have largely spaced him out by putting Chet Holmgren and/or Jaylin Williams on the floor against him, forcing him to defend in uncomfortable places and dragging him away from the rim. But even when he’s matched up with a more traditional center like Hartenstein, he’s had no answers. I’m not sure he even knows he’s taking a test.

Unfortunately, coach Mitch Johnson doesn’t have many other options. The starters and Harper are already carrying a heavy burden. Jordan McLaughlin is chum, and the back end of the Spurs bench overflows with centers as useful as scarecrows. Eh, scratch that. Even the crows ain’t worried about Kelly Olynyk, Bismack Biyombo, and Mason Plumlee.

Without Mitchell and Williams, the Thunder still have 11 legitimately talented NBA players who are all ready and willing to step up. The Spurs, even with the limping Fox and Harper, have, like, seven?

In a battle between two teams this talented, optionality is so important. You need different tools to create new solutions or pose new problems. Daigneault’s tool chest is jam-packed. He can’t even close it properly. Johnson is down to a ratchet set missing the 10mm socket, a couple of screwdrivers, and a hammer he borrowed from his neighbor. That will get most projects done, but against this Thunder team, it might be a few pieces short.