One reason Denver and LA can both feel optimistic

Denver: The Nuggets took the Lakers’ best punch and survived

The online discourse around the Lakers’ second-half adjustments and resulting run makes it sound like they were the Game 1 winners, not Denver. And yet, the Nuggets emerged from Game 1 both victorious and with time to craft a perfect counter.

By now, you’ve likely read your fill of the Rui Hachimura/Anthony Davis switcheroo in which Davis ignored non-shooter Aaron Gordon to clog the paint while Rui took the primary Joker assignment. (Dave McMenamin at ESPN had a good summary.)

This tactic shouldn’t have surprised Denver, but it did. Luckily, numerous options are available for the Nuggets to fix their mistakes. I wrote an article for Nugg Love detailing the many ways Denver can and will change up the gameplan, but I want to expound on some of those further.

First, it’s too easy for Anthony Davis to help on Jokic when Gordon is stationed at the dunker spot (on the baseline by the basket) or in the corner. The Nuggets can have Gordon start the action as a ballhandler or entry passer from the wing or the top of the arc, where A) he’s a 41% three-point shooter (instead of 25% from the corners) and B) it’s more difficult for Anthony Davis to help. Gordon acted as a point forward for Orlando early in his career; although it didn’t go particularly well, he’s a more than capable ballhandler and passer when called upon.

Using Gordon as a ball-screener is an obvious fix, but Gordon can also weaponize his screening ability for others off-ball, as Draymond Green does for the Warriors when teams ignore him. The Nuggets tried that once toward the end of the game. Gordon flashed up from the corner and set a pin-in screen on floppy-fish Dennis Schroder, freeing up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a great look (that didn’t go in, but still):

Expect to see Gordon use his weight more in Game 2.

One strange quirk I can’t quite figure out: Davis was almost always helping off of the left corner. Jokic would back Rui down, but instead of going baseline, he’d pivot directly into Davis’ help:

The passing angles are undoubtedly better moving toward the middle, but that doesn’t mean the baseline should be ignored. When we see this tactic in Game 2, the hook over Jokic’s left shoulder will be open. I expect him to take full advantage of it.

Long story short, Denver has seen this type of “man-spy” defense before, and they know how to counter it. It undoubtedly worked well for the Lakers, but perhaps LA should have saved that bullet for Game 2 rather than firing it when they were losing by 20. Now, the Nuggets have a banked win and plenty of film to study.

Los Angeles: Jamal Murray is vulnerable

Jamal Murray played a fantastic offensive game against Los Angeles while battling an illness, including hitting a couple of absurd fadeaways that Michael Jordan would have found audacious. But he got absolutely worked defensively by LeBron James and company.

James is a mismatch-hunting predator in the playoffs. He seeks out the opponent’s smallest player and picks at him repeatedly, unwinding the sweater by its loosest thread. James waited a touch too long in Game 1 to go at Murray, but the strategy proved highly effective.

The Nuggets tried a bunch of things to protect Murray and keep him out of the action, to no avail. Unlike the Hachimura-on-Jokic technique we talked about above, there aren’t necessarily easy fixes for Denver on this one. Murray is too important to sit, and the Lakers have enough size and shooting outside of LeBron and AD that there’s rarely a safe hiding place for Murray.

Put him on Austin Reaves or D’Angelo Russell? LeBron will use them as screeners and find them for three as Murray, lost, scrambles to recover:

Try him on Rui Hachimura or Anthony Davis, and no pick is necessary. Their size is too much:

And LeBron? Forget about it. LeBron scored, drew a foul, or dropped a dime every time he had Murray on him:

Perhaps Murray can survive on Dennis Schroder, but even Schroder is quick enough to beat Murray off the dribble or take advantage of a 4-on-3 opportunity if Murray hedges too hard on a LeBron pick-and-roll.

The Nuggets tried switching, hedging, show-and-recovering, and doubling. I think I even saw a possession or two of zone, although it was hard to be sure. Nothing really worked.

Murray isn’t THAT bad a defender, and the Nuggets will tighten up their defense. The Lakers will miss shots. And if Murray finds himself on an island, I’d expect more help to come.

But the Lakers are uniquely positioned to attack him in ways many teams aren’t (as long as they don’t get too cute with their rotation). The big guys are legitimately huge, and Laker guards have mostly been shooting well all postseason. With the offensive burden that Murray has to carry, too, he may not have the legs to survive being put in a blender over and over.

The Lakers certainly have work to do on both sides, but if all else fails, they can always return to attacking Denver’s weakest link. It’s no shock that despite his efficient 31 points, Jamal Murray had the worst plus/minus mark of any Nuggets starter in Game 1: a mere +3 (Jokic was +11; Michael Porter Jr. was +20!).

Denver can’t afford to take Jamal Murray off the court, but if something doesn’t change, they may not be able to survive him being on it.