Pacers/Celtics and Mavericks/Timberwolves: A Conference Finals Preview

A key question, an X-Factor, and other musings for each series

6 Indiana Pacers vs. 1 Boston Celtics

The Pacers triumphed over what remains of the New York Knicks in seven fun games, while the Boston Celtics took care of business against an undermanned Cavaliers team in five games. No rest for the weary, as Indiana plays tonight after just finishing Game 7 on Sunday.

Season series: 3-2 BOS

Every one of these games occurred before February, so they are a bit stale. Only one occurred with Pascal Siakam on Indiana’s roster, and four occurred with Kristaps Porzingis manning the middle for Boston (his injury should keep him out at least the first few games of this series). Bennedict Mathurin, strangely, was Indiana’s leading scorer against the Celtics; he’s out for the season.

There are a few things to note, however. The first is that the C’s were generally able to throttle Indiana’s high-powered offense, holding them to a combined 114 offensive rating, nearly seven points below their season-long average. The Pacers did not return the favor, as Boston scored 124 points per 100 possessions against Indiana. (Those numbers are somewhat skewed by a 155-104 beatdown back in October that should’ve required an explicit content warning.)

The second is that these teams played against each other in the quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament in December. In a high-stakes game with more intensity than usual, Indiana triumphed, putting themselves on the national radar as a real threat. Boston is a tough matchup for anybody, but at least the Pacers can draw upon real success.

Key Question: Will Haliburton hunt his own shot?

Tyrese Haliburton is the revving engine of Indiana’s offense, but it’s well-known that he hasn’t looked quite the same after suffering a barrage of ailments over the past few months (most notably, a hamstring strain).

A midseason trade swapping Buddy Hield out and Pascal Siakam in further changed Haliburton’s play. With the sharpshooting Hield gone, Haliburton became the Pacers’ most significant threat from deep, and coach Rick Carlisle moved him into a more off-ball role.

It was an understandable choice, but it does mean that Haliburton has to work harder to find his shot. The Pacers are far better when Haliburton shoots more. In the Pacers’ five postseason losses, he’s attempted just 11 shots per game; in their eight wins, he’s tried nearly 17. That’s not a coincidence.

The Pacers are filled with solid role players, but besides Haliburton and, occasionally, backup guard TJ McConnell, only Siakam can generate much offense for himself and others. When Haliburton is in an off-ball role, he has to channel his inner Steph Curry and hunt his own shot with ferocity. Watch how hard and how far he has to sprint to get this one off:

The broadcast team rightfully highlighted this as an example of Haliburton aggressively looking to score. It wasn’t the only such instance, but he’ll have to make plays like that an even bigger point of emphasis.

The sledding figures to be rougher for Haliburton with speed bumps like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown in the way. Haliburton largely struggled against the Celtics during the regular season, but he was in a more traditional on-ball role. His new hybrid approach will be a wrinkle Boston hasn’t faced, and they’ll need to make sure they don’t fall asleep even when Haliburton is spacing the floor in the strongside corner. A few steps is all he needs to crack open a shooting window:

Indiana pressed full court against New York for large parts of the last series, taking advantage of a thin, tired Knicks squad and speeding up the game. I don’t think they’ll do that much against a Boston team with threats to score at nearly every position, but it does speak to how much Indiana wants to get out and run. Haliburton loves to jog into open threes in the chaos of the fast-break game, so Boston must be diligent about limiting their turnovers and marking him when they run.

The Celtics played terrific off-ball defense on Haliburton during the regular season, only giving up one assisted three-pointer to Haliburton in five games, by my count. They’ll need to maintain that discipline and attentiveness.

Overall, an aggressive Haliburton is a good Haliburton. The Pacers will be underdogs in this series, but they’ve been big-game hunters for much of the season. Haliburton must have a quick trigger finger to bag the biggest prize yet.

X-Factor: Al Horford

The reliable old man will continue getting all the minutes he can handle as Porzingis heals, but Indiana will be a different challenge than he’s faced so far. Both of Boston’s playoff opponents featured non-shooting centers for Horford to guard in Bam Adebayo and Evan Mobley. The Pacers employ Myles Turner, an up-and-down but willing shooter from deep.

If Horford and the Celtics decide not to guard Turner too tightly on the perimeter, they must watch out for his screens for Indiana’s shooters, particularly Haliburton. Play too deep, and you’ll be caught out of position when Turner frees up Haliburton with improvised flare screens for shots like this:

Horford may end up switching onto Indiana’s ballhandlers like Haliburton and Nembhard a good amount. His ability to hold up one-on-one will be essential to maintaining Boston’s defensive integrity.

Even with joints creaking like stairs at midnight, Horford is a good defender, but he’s also the relatively weakest link in the chain (which says more about the strength of his supporting cast than him). The Cavaliers tried testing him with their guards, particularly Darius Garland. Horford usually came out on top:

For all the handwringing about the Celtics’ supposed lack of a killer instinct, they’ve obliterated opponents all year. Indiana is a better team than what they’ve faced so far, but Boston is a heavy favorite for a reason.

Minor Thoughts

• Siakam has had several excellent games in these playoffs, and he scored well in the one Celtics-Pacers tilt he participated in (23 points on 16 shots). The Pacers need him to put some pressure on the rim against Boston. 36% of Indiana’s shots were at the hoop in the regular season overall, but they only got there 30% of the time against Boston. Siakam’s halfcourt creation and transition pressure can and should help with that.