Playoff Mega-preview, Part II

Golden State/Houston, OKC/Memphis, Cleveland/Miami, and Boston/Orlando

Four playoff games are in the books (and there were some great ones!). I’ll save the analysis of those for later. Right now, it’s time to dive into the remaining four playoff matchups. With one exception, these are likely to be pretty one-sided, but there’s always something fun to look at.

Happy Easter to those who celebrate, and happy start of the NBA playoffs to those who don’t! It should be a glorious day of basketball.

2) Houston Rockets vs. 7) Golden State Warriors

Season series: 3-2 Warriors

It’s wild that the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors are meeting in the playoffs again, more than half a decade after they were the best rivalry in the sport.

Golden State still has the Steve Kerr/Draymond Green/Steph Curry core, somehow, while Houston has revamped everything from the front office on down.

These two teams have split a pair of games since Jimmy Butler joined the Warriors. Golden State won in one of Butler’s first games, while Houston beat the Californians just two weeks ago in a game in which the Rockets held Steph Curry to just three (3!) points.

Key Question: How deadly is Houston’s double-big lineup?

Speaking of rivalries, don’t forget that Steven Adams had his fair share of mix-ups with the Warriors for OKC and Memphis!

I went deep on Houston’s two-big lineup for Locked On, and it’s been a huge (no pun intended!) part of the Rockets’ recent success. The short version: the Adams/Alperen Sengun lineups devour offensive rebounds and have guarded extraordinarily well, thanks to the implementation of a zone defense.

I’m not sure that sounded impressive enough. Let me re-emphasize what this pairing has done to people in 334 non-garbage-time possessions. Point differential? +30.0 points per 100 possessions, 100th percentile. Offensive rebounding rate? 50.3%, 100th percentile. (They’re rebounding more than half of their misses!) Defensive rating? 95.7, 100th percentile. Of course, there’s been some shooting luck. But it’s a massacre every time these guys step on the court together.

You’d think a zone defense would be vulnerable to a player like Steph Curry, and you’d be right. But Houston will try it (perhaps in the non-Curry minute?) and hope that the benefits outweigh the costs. Curry will find some holes, but can the Warriors survive the Rockets’ sucking in every rebound like a turbocharged Dyson?

Golden State is tiny. Rookie center Quinten Post is incredible at what he does (shooting threes), but the idea of him boxing out Adams sends shivers down my spine. Quietly, Sengun has had some good moments against Green. Not many players get him to guess wrong so often:

Golden State may have to hope that Kevon Looney turns into Hakeem Olajuwon once again, as he did in their 2022 NBA championship run. That was a long time ago, however, and there’s no guarantee Looney still has the magic. Green will be faced with at least one gigantic bruiser on him every minute he’s on the court, and his ability to guard his yard is arguably the series’ most important storyline.

Houston’s physicality, size, and athleticism will make life difficult for Golden State on offense, but they aren’t much of a jump-shooting team. If the Warriors can survive the glass onslaught, they can cobble together enough offense and defense to advance. That’s an appropriately big if, though.

X-Factor: Dillon Brooks

Really, you can pick anyone from either team to be a role player. Can my pick for DPOY, Amen Thompson, replicate his success against Curry from a few weeks ago without limiting the Rockets on the other end? Can Brandin Podziemski provide the secondary playmaking and scoring Golden State desperately needs to relieve some of the pressure on Butler and Curry? Which big men on either team will step up or fall down?

But I keep coming back to Brooks, who will be tasked with containing Jimmy Butler for much of the series.

The newest Warrior has always been an iceberg player. In the regular season, Butler only shows you a hint of what he can do, but when the playoffs roll around, he unleashes his vast array of skills while ramping up the aggression. Butler has been understatedly excellent for Golden State so far, but they signed Butler with the hopes that the 35-year-old can still turn into Playoff Jimmy when it counts — there’s no room for understatement.

Make no mistake, this will be a challenging series for Butler, who may struggle with the strength of the Rockets’ frontline. He’s always best when he can bully defenders. Brooks is a lot of things, but he’s not particularly bulliable (bully-able? Whatever.). He’s meaner than a seasick crocodile, and you know he’ll be chattering at Butler, Green, Curry, Kerr, and everyone else on Golden State’s roster.

(Sidenote: there will be a lot of technicals in this series. Both teams excel at getting under opponents’ skins, and whoever can maintain their composure for seven games will have a substantial advantage.)

It’s not just about the defensive end, however. Brooks has been Houston’s best shooter this season, canning 40% of a career-high number of threes. The Rockets haven’t enjoyed consistent marksmanship from anyone else in the rotation, and Golden State has a cruel defense of their own. They never let teams get to the rim. If the Rockets can’t find a way to penetrate the Warriors’ defensive shell, they’ll be counting on Brooks to hit enough threes to keep them afloat.

This is the series I’m least sure of and most excited about.

1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8) Memphis Grizzlies