Rookie Extension Extravaganza!

Thoughts on five high-profile extensions

We made it! Huzzah!

This is the last post before the season finally, mercifully tips off tonight. No more watching old or preseason NBA games; we’ll have new basketball to enjoy!

I plan on absorbing as much basketball as humanly possible for the next three days and then getting you some initial impressions by Friday. Until then, I wanted to spend some time on the handful of important nine-figure rookie extensions from yesterday.

Some of these numbers may pop your eyes like a dog gnawing a beach ball, but it’s important to remember just how much the salary cap will rise (with its CBA-limited 10% increases each year). Here is the estimated salary cap for the coming seasons:

The current 2024-25 salary cap: $141 million

2025-26: $155 million (this will be the first year these extensions below kick in)

2026-27: $170 million

2027-28: $187 million

2028-29: $206 million

2029-30: $226 million

$226 million provides a LOT of wiggle room (and remember, teams regularly spend over the cap). That’s more than half-again as much as the salary cap this year! So keep that in mind if the extension numbers seem a bit loony.

As a final caveat, this is all pretty fresh news. We may learn about incentives or other machinations later that may change the situation slightly, but overall, these extensions already feel more team-friendly (given that rising cap) than they might’ve in years past.

Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic: Five years, $150.5 million (fifth year is a player option)

Well, I wasn’t quite right, but I did predict four years and $125 million for Orlando’s point guard. For those of you with sticker shock, here’s the case for Suggs.

Salary cap nerds, rejoice: Fred Katz reported that this is a descending contract. That’s huge for a team with monster extensions for Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero coming up. Supposedly, by the final year of the deal, Suggs will be making just $26 million, roughly 11-12% of the salary cap. Armchair analysts, if it lasts more than four hours, see a doctor.

Even I’m a little nervous, though. Those were my unlikely-but-plausible predictions, after all. There are plenty of reasons to be skittish about paying $30 million for a guy with a lengthy injury history who has never averaged more than 13 points or five assists per game.

However, those concerns haven’t yet factored in the new market reality: if you can shoot and you can play defense, you get paid. It’s that simple.

Suggs’ 3-and-D bonafides last season were remarkable: he made an All-Defensive Team while hitting 40% on high (and difficult!) volume. It’s reasonable to be concerned about a step back shooting-wise, but there’s also the possibility that he makes strides as a pick-and-roll orchestrator and passer on an Orlando team with a playmaking deficit. In my eyes, health is the biggest concern, but the Magic have always rewarded their guys (see Jonathan Isaac).

And if Suggs never gets better, he should have a relatively frothy trade market in the future. Guys with Suggs’ exact skill set fit anywhere. 30 teams in the league want someone used to an off-ball role with a ticklish trigger finger and defensive bite to match his bark:

If the Magic eventually need to find someone with more on-ball juice in that salary slot, this contract will never become an albatross (as long as Suggs can stay on the court).

Overall, I understand the apprehension, but I’m very optimistic that this extension works out for Orlando, even if it’s a bit of an overpay at the start.

Jalen Green, Houston Rockets: Three years, $106 million (third year is a player option)

I am not a particularly big Jalen Green fan, but I understand the reasons for this deal’s unique construction (literally unique: per ESPN, it’s the first of its kind). Few players have as high a theoretical ceiling or as low a hypothetical floor, and that’s why this is a short extension compared to those of Green’s peers.

If Green explodes? He can opt out after the 2027-28 season and earn the big money he’ll deserve. If he bombs (weird how “explodes” and “bombs” are antonyms in this context, right?) or fails to live up to expectations, Houston isn’t locked in for an unfathomably long time. Both sides are hedging their bets.

Again, I find the latter situation likelier. Green has yet to crack 35% from deep in a season, and his improved defense needs further fine-tuning to approach average. He’s a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer with some pretty highlights and ugly decision-making. He did finish last season on a very high note, averaging 24/6/4 on 46% from the field and 37% from deep after the calendar turned to March, but it’s hard to tell how much of that boost came from Houston’s angel-food-cake schedule down the stretch.

There aren’t too many outcomes where Green is worth more than $35 million annually, even in a rising cap environment. And if Green does blow up (another positive explosion phrase!), the Rockets will be forced to re-sign him to a richer contract if they want to keep him. It’s possible that having Green under these terms makes him more tradeable in the offseason, but that’s difficult to judge.

In a vacuum, Green would have been a perfect test case for restricted free agency: force other teams to make an offer sheet for him, then match if the number is palatable. Realistically, though, the league rarely utilizes restricted free agency the way that fans and media would like, as it tends to leave a bad taste in the mouths of players and their agents.

(Also, not that this really matters, but based on initial estimates, he does get a few hundred thousand more per year than Sengun for the first few years of the deal. Is that coincidental? I find it… interesting.)

Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets: Five years, $185 million (fifth year is a player option)