The 2025 NBA Finals Mega-Preview

Questions and X-Factors for the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder

After nearly eight months of games, a new NBA champion will be crowned. It all comes down to this.

In one corner, we have the Oklahoma City Thunder, who bring a freaky fast defense, insane depth, and the MVP. In the other, we have the Indiana Pacers, who sport a chaotic brand of offense and full-court pressure on both sides of the ball.

This will be a fun series. Young stars on both sides, fast breaks, alley-oops, defensive playmaking, tactical adjustments galore — it will be telegenic for casual and diehard fans alike.

Let’s acknowledge the obvious up front: The Indiana Pacers are major underdogs. I’m hardly the first to note that OKC shares many of Indiana’s strengths and has fewer weaknesses. The Vegas markets have the Thunder as an anomalously strong favorite.

But the Pacers have continually surprised even relative believers like me, and there are plausible paths to victory. A lot would have to go right, and Lady Luck will need to answer a(nother) booty call, but the Pacers have multiple historic comebacks this postseason. They won’t roll over.

Here are four key questions and X-Factors to consider as you watch these Finals.

Key Question 1: Can the Pacers win (or at least not dramatically lose) the turnover game?

Against almost any other team, the Pacers would have a clear edge. They force a good number of turnovers and almost never turn the ball over themselves (they have the league’s third-lowest turnover rate) despite their offense’s free-flowing nature.

The Thunder aren’t any other team, however. They pulled off the incredible feat of leading the league in both forced turnover rate and turnover prevention.

OKC survived Denver and crushed Minnesota with their defensive runs. Most teams go on a run with hot shooting. One three turns into another turns into another, and suddenly it’s a 9-0 run in the span of 30 seconds. The rolling Thunder smack opponents with steals, blocks, and deflections, instead, leading to frenzies my readers described as Thunderstorms, Thunderbolts, Oklahomeruns, or Thunderclaps (my favorite). These aren’t just any ol’ turnovers; they’re live, baby! And they tend to pile up like a ten-car crash during rush hour.

Indiana will turn it over some, but they must stay composed. To be competitive, they’ll have to avoid those turnover avalanches; to win, they’ll need a few of their own.

Key Question 2: Can the Pacers keep up their hot shooting?

Indiana has been on a month-long heater. Even for a team with several tough shotmakers, it’s been ridiculous. That Nesmith fourth quarter against New York was one of the most jaw-dropping shooting displays I’ve ever seen, and I’ve watched a lot of Steph Curry over the years.

Of course, Oklahoma City’s historic defense is significantly better than Milwaukee’s, Cleveland’s, or New York’s. Making shots against this team won’t be as easy: The Thunder held opponents to just 51.8% effective field goal percentage, the league’s lowest. The starters’ weakest defender is probably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander; he received All-Defensive Team votes this year and has been a top-five pilferer two seasons in a row!

But no defense can take away everything. Denver’s offense had Nikola Jokic but far fewer capable offensive players than Indiana, and they still had a few games with gaudy point totals. Indiana has several players who thrive in the midrange, particularly Pascal Siakam. If he’s hitting his turnarounds, there’s not much any individual defender can do. But can he repeat his Eastern Conference Finals MVP performance against such a stout frontline?

Speaking of Siakam, the Thunder tried putting Isaiah Hartenstein on him and wings on Myles Turner in the regular season. With the way Siakam’s been playing, I don’t believe it wise to give him wide-open 17-footers:

If OKC’s halfcourt defense has one flaw, it’s a tendency to overhelp. It’s in their players’ DNA (Alex Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jalen Williams love to dig in for steals on unsuspecting ballhandlers), but it’s also schematic: The Thunder allowed the Timberwolves to shoot 15.4 corner threes per game in the conference finals. For context, the Phoenix Suns led the league with 11.8 per game in the regular season. That’s valuable real estate. Most defenses prioritize guarding right angles, but OKC decided they were better off packing the paint to stymie Anthony Edwards and help on the glass.

I don’t expect the Thunder to be that aggressive again, but as a team, the Pacers are the best off-ball movers in the league. They will catch OKC ballwatching or overhelping at times, and they will have open looks from deep:

A couple of hot shooting nights could make this a longer series than most anticipate.

Key Question 3: Can Daigneault keep up with Carlisle?

Mark Daigneault is one of the brightest young minds in the NBA. He’ll be playing chess with Rick Carlisle, one of the brightest old minds in the NBA (sorry, Rick!).

Carlisle is immensely respected by his peers, and for good reason. He’s already won one Finals as a dark horse, leading the 2011 Dallas Mavericks to victory over the Miami Heat in the first year of the LeBron/Wade/Bosh triple-headed monster. He knows how to keep overdogs on their toes.

Meanwhile, Daigneault earned himself a Coach of the Year award last year and led the Thunder to their absurd 68-14 record this season. The Thunder’s oceanic depth means he has more clubs to play with than virtually anyone, including Carlisle, and he consistently picks the right one. He’s had a few misfires this postseason, particularly around fouling up three too early, but has also shuffled lineups and rotations, tweaked defensive gameplans, and won a Game 7. If anything, his few peccadillos have been sins of activity; I can live with that. Daigneault’s most memorable move was siccing human/Doberman hybrid Alex Caruso on Nikola Jokic, relying upon Caruso’s raw strength, low center of gravity, and constantly searching hands to disrupt the Serbian big man.

Carlisle has morphed over the years from a control freak into someone who has embraced “chaotic” basketball. He’s given Haliburton free rein to run the offense, and he’s designed a defense that — even toned down from last year’s cartoonish extremes — has a clear identity: Take away threes and hope that Myles Turner can clean up everything at the rim.

Carlisle and his staff’s genius isn’t necessarily in unorthodox defensive formations or dramatic out-of-bounds plays (although I do love the four verticals play that assistant coach Jenny Boucek cooked up last year). Instead, it shows in the team’s attention to detail. When they do a full-court press, there is never a moment of confusion as defenders try to figure out who to pick up. They always remember to attack defensive weak links without getting caught up in moribund isolation games. The right players are always sprinting ahead on offense or crashing the boards on defense. Players move randomly and with purpose, a tricky balance to teach.

Daigneault has a more talented roster, and he’s an excellent coach. They should win this series. However, if they don’t (or even if it goes seven games), I’ll bet we can point to Carlisle winning the coaching battle as one reason why.