The 2026 NBA Conference Finals Preview

Corner shooting, Dean Wade's defense, Castle's sloppiness, and more X-Factors and Key Questions

All the pretenders are gone.

Sure, there is a disparity in talent among the remaining combatants. But simply by making it to the Conference Finals, a team positions itself to pounce on opportunity.

The Eastern Conference pits a well-rested Knicks team playing like a juggernaut against the aching, black-and-blue Cleveland Cavaliers, who drag themselves into the conference finals after consecutive seven-game series. And in the West, we have the matchup we’ve all been waiting for: the defending champion Thunder, led by newly minted two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, against the interstellar might of Victor Wembanyama and his trio of fast and furious guards.

Just three playoff series left, folks, and they should be good ones. Buckle up. Let’s break down a Key Question and an X-Factor for each team.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs

Season series: 4-1 Spurs

Most people view this as the de facto NBA Finals, and while I’m not quite there (a Knicks-Spurs battle would have some very interesting tactical wrinkles to explore), whoever wins this will be a deserving heavy favorite.

The Spurs announced themselves as contenders by battering OKC three straight times in December. Remarkably, all three wins came with the Thunder near full strength and Wembanyama coming off the bench as he recovered from a calf strain. The Thunder saved some face with a win two weeks later, but that didn’t dent the Spurs’ confidence.

No one’s expecting OKC to roll over and play possum (oddsmakers still like the Oklahomans). These are two utterly elite basketball teams. Per the NBA, the last time two 62+ win teams met in the playoffs was the 1998 Bulls-Jazz Finals! On a more micro level, whoever of Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins will likely assume the title of Best Player Alive.

So, not much at stake.

Spurs Key Question: Can they dominate the corner?

The Thunder have the most ferocious on-ball defenders in the league, but their pressing, aggressive style can leave them open to hot three-point shooting. Of particular note: The Thunder gave up the most corner threes in the league. The Spurs launched the second-highest rate of right-angle triples. If the Spurs net a few early, they could force OKC into a more conservative defensive scheme.

Overall, Julian Champagnie is nailing 45% of his triples. Steph Castle is shooting 44% from deep on a respectable 4.5 attempts per game in these playoffs. Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, and Dylan Harper are 24-for-60 combined from behind the arc, which is solid accuracy, albeit on low volume. Even given the struggles of Devin Vassell (just 32% on the team’s highest per-game volume), the Spurs are shooting 38% as a team in the postseason.

The Thunder were surprisingly unable to keep Castle, De’Aaron Fox, Harper, and Wembanyama out of the paint in their regular-season matchups. If the Spurs are also cashing in from the corners, stretching OKC’s help defense to its breaking point, the Thunder will find themselves in quite the pickle.

Spurs X-Factor: Castle’s worst instincts

Castle has been on a tear in these playoffs, attacking the rim, nailing his threes, and savaging opposing ballhandlers like a rabid badger. But for all his terrific strengths and his dramatic improvement this season, he has two major flaws: a propensity to get overly physical, and loosey-gooseness with the ball. Both those things could play into OKC’s hands.

As a whole, the Thunder shoot fewer free throws than most teams. But Shai, famously, gets to the line plenty. Castle will need to temper his raw athletic gifts with awareness and savvy. While SGA averaged only 7.5 free-throw attempts in four contests against Castle (below his average), Castle still had at least four fouls in four of the five games he played against OKC. That’s a whole lot.

He also compiled 20 turnovers in those five contests, far too many. The Thunder thrive on live-ball miscues, forcing more than anyone and feasting on the resulting fast breaks. Castle can’t be this sloppy: