The Cup runneth over: A Knicks/Spurs preview

Robinson's double-edged history chase, Vassell as harbinger, and the duality of KAT

Tonight, the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks will determine the third NBA Cup champion.

Two years ago, it was a highly motivated LeBron James who spurred the Lakers to victory, adding another bullet point to the NBA’s longest resume. Last year, it was the Damian Lillard/Giannis Antetokounmpo Bucks plastering the Thunder in the championship, holding the Thunder to a now-unthinkable 81 points while showcasing the ceiling that a healthy Lillard/Antetokounmpo duo could have reached (sigh).

This year, a new chapter gets added. If the Spurs hoist the trophy, this will be the first elevated-stakes win of Victor Wembanyama’s career, a stepping stone to even bigger and brighter things (hopefully). If the Knicks emerge victorious, they’ll add the first banner-like object to the rafters since 1973. It’ll provide some tangible proof that this Jalen Brunson-led core of KATs and ‘cats mattered.

But who has the edge? Let’s examine some X-Factors and key questions.

New York Knicks

X-Factor: Mitchell Robinson

The Mitchell Robinson Experience is always a quirky one, but it’s been particularly bizarre this year. He’s on track to make history twice.

He’s currently posting the highest offensive rebounding rate of all time (followed by Houston’s Steven Adams, who’d be setting the record himself if it weren’t for Robinson). More than a quarter of his team’s misses get vacuumed up by his Hoover hands.

Put another way: Robinson is averaging more offensive rebounds per game (4.5 in fewer than 18 minutes) than points (3.7). More than half of his buckets come off putbacks, but he’s become well-versed in the art of the kickout, too. Robinson has become so good at mapping the floor while the ball is in the air. Look at this beautiful laser tip:

On the flip side, he’s on track to post the worst free-throw shooting season ever, too, missing a whopping 78% of his freebies. Nobody playing real minutes has ever missed more than 70% of their free throws before! Teams have taken to the Maul-a-Mitch strategy with a vengeance, forcing him off the floor for long stretches.

How and how much coach Mike Brown deploys Robinson might be the most interesting tactical question of the game. Victor Wembanyama has very few weaknesses, but Robinson’s absolute relentlessness on the boards can A) punish Wembanyama for veering off of him to chase blocks, and B) take a physical toll on the enmuscled but still-slender Spurs big man. If Robinson has his way with Wemby, San Antonio may be forced to play Luke Kornet even more minutes (although I’m not sure that’s something the Knicks should really be hoping for) to match brawn with brawn.