Trigger-sad and anchorballs honin the pantheon of Basketball Poetry turns of phrase. Come for the prose, stay for the Poetry.
The Hawks have famously been Zach Lowe’s siren song (“kaw-kaw!”). As a Spurs fan I’m mad that the Pels have bailed them out (twice, with Daniels last season and the Bucks-Pels pick this year), but they’re still ever fascinating, and even more so in the way they achieve their meh-ness through extremes as you point out. Obviously if they get a top four pick that changes everything (although Dybantsa, Boozer and Caleb Wilson might be duplicative of Jalen Johnson), but otherwise I wonder what their path is to building a championship contender. Curious for your thoughts.
Thanks! I've been waiting for the right time to bust out trigger-sad haha, I was proud of that one.
I don't really know what their path to a championship contender is. It's rarely clear without a top-five player, which is why so few teams can win! Johnson, as much as I love him, is unlikely to break into top-10 player status. There is depth here, but unless Kuminga is MUCH better than I anticipate, the team is more of an ensemble cast, which typically struggle to make a deep playoff run.
But they have a pretty clean cap sheet, they have draft picks to trade if needed, and they have a decent shot at a game-changing talent in the draft (even if I share your concerns about the abundance of power-forward-sized top prospects). Plus, all their best players are young. Johnson is 24, Okongwu is 25, NAW is 27, Kuminga is 23, Daniels is 22, Risacher is 20, and rookie Asa Newell (who has real talent) is just 20. All of those guys are under contract for a few seasons except Kuminga. They might be an ensemble cast, but they could grow into one hell of an ensemble.
If they can rely upon organic growth to level up into a real playoff team next season and identify their needs (More shooting? A better rim protector?), Onsi Saleh sure hasn't been shy to make a splashy trade.
I was surprised you didn't mention Newell in the article. He's looked really good in his minutes. It's a bummer that they have so many young forwards, especially now with Kuminga. But he's definitely on my watch list for like 2028! :)
I liked what I saw from Newell offensively, but he's had some real defensive struggles. Like you said, the forward rotation will be crowded (and could be worse after the lottery, if the Hawks get lucky!), so I just don't seem him having a huge opportunity in the short-term.
Even if guys like Knueppel and White are some of the more additive players in the league, I can see your point that they’d be the ones to *best* complement Johnson. I think watching how Atlanta builds around him will be an interesting storyline going forward.
Yeah, the youth and clean books are definitely cause for optimism. I wonder if Jalen and Deni Avdija are models for super-bargain players who might still have well below championship ceilings as stars yet only be truly optimized as number one options thus capping a team’s ceiling without that perfect ensemble cast. Am I wrong to think that Trae would have been a pretty ideal partner with Jalen because of his ability to let Jalen operate as a cutter and second side creator and that was still pretty underwhelming. Is there a star you’d like to pair with him? Peak Garland might have been a pretty good guy too I guess but that ship has sailed.
I think about that all the time, how being, like, the 14th-best NBA player is actually a curse. Too good to be a second banana (in today's apron environment, anyway), not good enough to drive playoff success.
I think that Johnson would best be served by someone closer to Kon Knueppel or Derrick White, actually. I think he can be the #1 point guard ballhandler, but might need an above-average playmaker and shooter next to him on the rare occasions he gets overwhelmed.
Of course, everyone is better next to a Knueppel or White, so I guess that's not a revelatory statement ha.
Johnson can be a Top 5 player. He's the second most likely player in the league to AVERAGE a triple double. How will he get to top 5? Though an elite passer, he needs to defer less because there is no shooter on his team that he should defer to. The fact is, he could average 30 points a game with no improvement to his three-point shooting -- which will happen; he made something like 44-45 free throws at one point this year. He simply needs to go to the paint twice as much as he does now. Because he can't be guarded once he is airborne and he has a very nice bank shot from all angles and a soft touch. 24 years old. Jokic. Shai. Wemby. Cade. But I'd take Jalen at #5 in 2026-2027-2028 over Doncic. Tatum. Giannis. Brown. But maybe not Flagg.
Personally, I think that's a little optimistic, but I've been wrong before! And I do love me some plus-size passers, which is why I had a Johnson as an All-Star *last* season, too.
Big thing for me is health. I need to see that this season isn't a fluke in that regard to feel more confident.
I know you're a fan, too. But look, if Dyson wasn't shooting 13 percent from three -- 13 percent! -- and he had a big man who didn't take 45 percent of his shots from 25 feet, he'd EASILY be averaging a triple double this year. He cracks the Top 20 in scoring right now and no one in the Top 20 takes fewer free throws. I don't think going from 23 points a game to 28 is too optimistic. I think it's likely. Now, someone averaging 28 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists is someone I'll call Top 5. But it will require a stronger desire to be more aggressive. Not a given. He sometimes acts like he's Kris Dunn out there ... passing to someone who doesn't even have a better shot.
The Hawks do have some nice pieces -- the problem is that the fit of some of those pieces is highly questionable. Exhibit A of that is having three of their most talented guys basically all being natural "fours" (Johnson, Kuminga, and Okongwu). Okongwu's going to be stuck as an undersized center because they really have no one else good enough to play big minutes there, and I can't really see Johnson and Kuminga working well together long-term unless at least one of them gets some confidence in their outside shot. Just my two cents.
You are definitely in the majority. I'm less concerned about Johnson, Kuminga, and Okongwu than I am Daniels. The team may have to choose this offseason or early next year between keeping one of Kuminga and Daniels, and while they'll probably lean toward the devil they know (and recently re-signed), I'm reserving judgment until I see the rest of the season play out.
Trigger-sad and anchorballs honin the pantheon of Basketball Poetry turns of phrase. Come for the prose, stay for the Poetry.
The Hawks have famously been Zach Lowe’s siren song (“kaw-kaw!”). As a Spurs fan I’m mad that the Pels have bailed them out (twice, with Daniels last season and the Bucks-Pels pick this year), but they’re still ever fascinating, and even more so in the way they achieve their meh-ness through extremes as you point out. Obviously if they get a top four pick that changes everything (although Dybantsa, Boozer and Caleb Wilson might be duplicative of Jalen Johnson), but otherwise I wonder what their path is to building a championship contender. Curious for your thoughts.
Thanks! I've been waiting for the right time to bust out trigger-sad haha, I was proud of that one.
I don't really know what their path to a championship contender is. It's rarely clear without a top-five player, which is why so few teams can win! Johnson, as much as I love him, is unlikely to break into top-10 player status. There is depth here, but unless Kuminga is MUCH better than I anticipate, the team is more of an ensemble cast, which typically struggle to make a deep playoff run.
But they have a pretty clean cap sheet, they have draft picks to trade if needed, and they have a decent shot at a game-changing talent in the draft (even if I share your concerns about the abundance of power-forward-sized top prospects). Plus, all their best players are young. Johnson is 24, Okongwu is 25, NAW is 27, Kuminga is 23, Daniels is 22, Risacher is 20, and rookie Asa Newell (who has real talent) is just 20. All of those guys are under contract for a few seasons except Kuminga. They might be an ensemble cast, but they could grow into one hell of an ensemble.
If they can rely upon organic growth to level up into a real playoff team next season and identify their needs (More shooting? A better rim protector?), Onsi Saleh sure hasn't been shy to make a splashy trade.
I was surprised you didn't mention Newell in the article. He's looked really good in his minutes. It's a bummer that they have so many young forwards, especially now with Kuminga. But he's definitely on my watch list for like 2028! :)
I liked what I saw from Newell offensively, but he's had some real defensive struggles. Like you said, the forward rotation will be crowded (and could be worse after the lottery, if the Hawks get lucky!), so I just don't seem him having a huge opportunity in the short-term.
Even if guys like Knueppel and White are some of the more additive players in the league, I can see your point that they’d be the ones to *best* complement Johnson. I think watching how Atlanta builds around him will be an interesting storyline going forward.
Yeah, the youth and clean books are definitely cause for optimism. I wonder if Jalen and Deni Avdija are models for super-bargain players who might still have well below championship ceilings as stars yet only be truly optimized as number one options thus capping a team’s ceiling without that perfect ensemble cast. Am I wrong to think that Trae would have been a pretty ideal partner with Jalen because of his ability to let Jalen operate as a cutter and second side creator and that was still pretty underwhelming. Is there a star you’d like to pair with him? Peak Garland might have been a pretty good guy too I guess but that ship has sailed.
I think about that all the time, how being, like, the 14th-best NBA player is actually a curse. Too good to be a second banana (in today's apron environment, anyway), not good enough to drive playoff success.
I think that Johnson would best be served by someone closer to Kon Knueppel or Derrick White, actually. I think he can be the #1 point guard ballhandler, but might need an above-average playmaker and shooter next to him on the rare occasions he gets overwhelmed.
Of course, everyone is better next to a Knueppel or White, so I guess that's not a revelatory statement ha.
Johnson can be a Top 5 player. He's the second most likely player in the league to AVERAGE a triple double. How will he get to top 5? Though an elite passer, he needs to defer less because there is no shooter on his team that he should defer to. The fact is, he could average 30 points a game with no improvement to his three-point shooting -- which will happen; he made something like 44-45 free throws at one point this year. He simply needs to go to the paint twice as much as he does now. Because he can't be guarded once he is airborne and he has a very nice bank shot from all angles and a soft touch. 24 years old. Jokic. Shai. Wemby. Cade. But I'd take Jalen at #5 in 2026-2027-2028 over Doncic. Tatum. Giannis. Brown. But maybe not Flagg.
Personally, I think that's a little optimistic, but I've been wrong before! And I do love me some plus-size passers, which is why I had a Johnson as an All-Star *last* season, too.
Big thing for me is health. I need to see that this season isn't a fluke in that regard to feel more confident.
I know you're a fan, too. But look, if Dyson wasn't shooting 13 percent from three -- 13 percent! -- and he had a big man who didn't take 45 percent of his shots from 25 feet, he'd EASILY be averaging a triple double this year. He cracks the Top 20 in scoring right now and no one in the Top 20 takes fewer free throws. I don't think going from 23 points a game to 28 is too optimistic. I think it's likely. Now, someone averaging 28 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists is someone I'll call Top 5. But it will require a stronger desire to be more aggressive. Not a given. He sometimes acts like he's Kris Dunn out there ... passing to someone who doesn't even have a better shot.
Update: Added a line clarifying the Bucks/Pelicans pick details.
The Hawks do have some nice pieces -- the problem is that the fit of some of those pieces is highly questionable. Exhibit A of that is having three of their most talented guys basically all being natural "fours" (Johnson, Kuminga, and Okongwu). Okongwu's going to be stuck as an undersized center because they really have no one else good enough to play big minutes there, and I can't really see Johnson and Kuminga working well together long-term unless at least one of them gets some confidence in their outside shot. Just my two cents.
You are definitely in the majority. I'm less concerned about Johnson, Kuminga, and Okongwu than I am Daniels. The team may have to choose this offseason or early next year between keeping one of Kuminga and Daniels, and while they'll probably lean toward the devil they know (and recently re-signed), I'm reserving judgment until I see the rest of the season play out.
Daniels kind of concerns me, too, TBH. He'd be almost an ideal first guard off the bench type, but as a starter his offensive deficiencies worry me.