The most interesting players and teams down the stretch

Surging Heat, confusing Lakers, sad Randle, en fuego Sheppard, and more

No need for an introduction; the title says it all.

The Heat

The Heat have won five in a row and eight of their last 10 despite missing All-Star Norman Powell for much of that stretch. You always need to check the schedule when a team gets hot in March, and sure, you might think it was the early 2010s with the number of cupcakes in South Beach. But the Heat have smashed the Rockets, the white-hot Hornets, and conference-leading Pistons during that time, suggesting it’s not all a fluke.

Zooming out a little further, the Heat are 10-5 since Feb 1st, but boast the fourth-best offense and the third-best defense in that stretch.

The Heat have some unusual statistical signifiers. For example, on the season, the team’s offense has been average and their defense fantastic (Bam Adebayo and Erik Spoelstra’s ability to create an elite defense out of Twinkie wrappers and chew toys ought to be studied in laboratories). But if we only look at their performance against top-10 teams, we see the opposite: The Heat’s offense has actually been really good, and their defense has been mediocre.

Could there be a hint of the recent vintage Indiana Pacers in here? The Heat’s offense is the fastest in the league by a metric mile and runs an unusual system more heavily predicated on isolations and quick drives to the basket than traditional hand-off and pick-and-roll play (although they’ve added back a little more of that with Tyler Herro’s return). Is it possible that their offense is better suited to the playoffs than the regular season?

Miami certainly doesn’t have a defense-proof superstar like Tyrese Haliburton, so I’m not trying to suggest that there’s a potential Eastern Conference champion here. But there’s also far more upside with this Heat team than we’ve seen in the last few years, and they look primed to make someone uncomfortable in Round 1 — if they can escape the play-in, anyway.

Reed Sheppard

Don’t look now, but Sheppard is finally looking like a third overall pick.

Coach Ime Udoka has fed Sheppard the steadiest minutes of his career since he notched 16 points while starting in a win over Oklahoma City back in early February. That was the first of 13 straight games with double-digits, during which time he’s averaged 18 points, five assists, and four rebounds (with generous rounding). That’s come on 48% shooting from the field, including 44% on a whopping 8.7 long-balls per game.

Sheppard isn’t an every-night starter, but he closes more often than he doesn’t. Udoka still doesn’t trust Sheppard defensively, but he’s at least beginning to appreciate the chaos that Sheppard’s viper-quick hands and semi-random gambles can create:

Anecdotally, it does feel like Sheppard is trying to meet Udoka halfway by reining in some of his worst manic moments, but like with Sheppard’s defense overall, we’ll see if that holds up over a larger sample.

Still, Rockets fans and league watchers at large have been clamoring for some consistency in Udoka’s approach with Sheppard all season. The second-year guard is making a strong case for a permanent featured role.

Aaron Gordon

You know Aaron Gordon is important to the Nuggets, but you might not know just how important.

Without Gordon, the Denver Nuggets allow 119.8 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions, just a hair better than the Brooklyn Nets’ 27th-ranked defense.

With Gordon, the Denver Nuggets allow 111.3 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions, just a hair worse than the San Antonio Spurs’ third-ranked defense.

In other words, the Nuggets are a bottom-five defense without Gordon and a top-five one with him. That’s the difference between a championship contender and a potential first-round flameout.

Gordon has just two games under his belt since a six-week absence due to a recurring hamstring injury, and to my eyes at least, he still isn’t moving quite right (an explosive first quarter against OKC last night almost made me rewrite this, but he struggled the rest of the way).

The Nuggets, who are 17-8 with Gordon and just 22-18 without him, can’t really afford to cocoon him in bubble wrap like a safety-obsessed spider. They are currently in sixth, just 1.5 games ahead of the play-in Suns and 1.5 games back of the third-seeded Timberwolves. The annual Western playoff crunch is getting real, folks.

Speaking of which…

The Lakers

I’ve spent all season trying and failing to develop a comprehensive thesis for this team. Every time I think I’ve figured them out, they prove me wrong, for good or for ill.

The team is 39-25 despite a paltry +1.1 net rating that reflects a barely-above-.500 team. They’ve weathered an enormous number of injuries. They’ve lost to almost every really good team they’ve played. They dominate in the clutch.

Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic have been fantastic together (on both ends!) since last year, as long as LeBron James isn’t on the floor. Per game, Doncic is leading the league in points, field goal attempts, three-point attempts, and free throw attempts (and if you ask him, he should have twice as many of the latter).

Marcus Smart is way, way too important. Deandre Ayton is a mess. Deandre Ayton is shooting 67% from the field. My initial distrust of Jake LaRavia has been proven right (so far). Remember Dalton Knecht? Me neither. Maxi Kleber shows up once a week, seemingly at random. Even if he isn’t shooting as many triples as you’d like, Rui Hachimura deserves credit for developing into a stone-cold sniper (>40% from deep for the third straight year).

I don’t know. Much like LA’s defense, my thoughts on this team are incohesive. I suspect the Lakers are mediocre. I think they suspect they’re mediocre, although I wouldn’t say that to Luka’s face. But the Lakers won’t be scared by a first-round matchup against anyone but the Thunder. Do Houston or Minnesota really want to face a fire-breathing Doncic while JJ Redick draws up a quadruple drag screen for Luke Kennard (who will inevitably pass up the shot, but still)? Doubtful.

Even if you, like me, have a healthy skepticism of this team’s playoff chances, there is still a lot to watch for. It will be a big summer for the Lakers, who have a new, much richer owner and a lot of guys with things to prove down the stretch. To start, Reaves is due a bag. Whether it’s BIG money or BIg money or merely Big money will largely be decided by his play in the spring. Ayton has a player option for next year, as does Smart. Rui Hachimura will be a free agent. This could be the end of James in purple and gold, which will open up a legend-sized hole in the rotation.

The Lakers have a whole lot to think about. The next few months can change everything in the City of Angels.

Jayson Tatum

This is the most predictable and boring answer on here, but that doesn’t make it less true.

Tatum has looked solid in his first two games back for Boston. The touch on the shot isn’t quite there (he’s gone 6-for-16 in both games), and he’s understandably still working on reacting to game speed. There was an awkward foul on Donovan Mitchell early in Boston’s win over Cleveland, where it looked like Tatum wasn’t sure what he wanted his body to do, and he came up well short on a dunk attempt after a nice move to the rim against Dallas:

But he’s at least looked confident enough to attempt dunks in a half-court setting, including a putback to get his first points of the 2025-26 season. He has already played 27 minutes in both games, more than I was expecting right out of the gate, and his defense has generally been pretty sound.

Boston isn’t locked into the two seed, but they have a three-game cushion on the third-seeded Knicks and are 2.5 games behind the suddenly struggling Pistons. There is a small margin for error as Tatum works his way back into prime form. Nobody was expecting him to dominate right out of the gates, but he’s already starting from a good spot.

The C’s have the hardest remaining schedule of any good team, with an important bout against the Knicks following two games against OKC and one against San Antonio tonight. Tatum will be thrust right into the thick of things. No time like the present.

Julius Randle

Randle, more than most, is prone to elongated highs and lows. Trade rumors linking the Wolves to Giannis Antetokounmpo sent Randle into a tailspin he has yet to pull out from.

Randle has been in a slump since the start of February, averaging 18 points on just 44% from the field and 21% from deep, down from 22 points on 49% from the field and 34% from deep previously. That downturn looks even sharper when you remove a recent 41-point outburst against Portland. His assists, steals, and impact metrics are all down, too. Randle’s always worn his heart on his sleeve, but right now, he might need to put it back in his chest. The effort level has been more of an effort floor:

The Timberwolves are 8-2 in their last ten games, so it hasn’t crushed them. Yet. But their remaining schedule is exceedingly difficult, with matchups (sometimes multiple) against pretty much every good team in the league.

I picked Minnesota to return to the Western Conference Finals this season, which means beating one of Oklahoma City or San Antonio. They will not be able to do it if Randle, who had an uneven but overall successful postseason stretch last spring, can’t bounce back to near his best. Heck, if he can’t, they might not even make the playoffs — the play-in monster is lurking, waiting hungrily to ruin some team’s season. It’s not picky.

An energized Randle is a solid defender and arguably the team’s best passer, two things he hasn’t been of late. He needs to find his joy with a quickness.