The Proved-Me-Wrong Team

A handful of players who, for better or worse, did what the title says

One of the best parts of each new season is seeing which players come in bursting at the seams with new skills. One of the worst parts is observing who failed to do the same, stagnating like a broken birdbath.

Below are five players who proved me wrong in various ways. This is a highly subjective exercise that is entirely dependent upon my own personal expectations entering the season; your mileage may vary dramatically, so feel free to drop an “I told you so” in the comments or chime in with your own surprises.

I spoke at length for RealGM Radio on all of the guys below, so go to [YouTube, Spotify, Apple Pods, etc.] if you’d prefer the audio version.

Let’s start with the player who changed my mind the most…

1) Michael Porter Jr.

MPJ became a Net last offseason, shipped away with a first-round pick for Cam Johnson. Denver was hoping for a more dynamic playmaker and to avoid paying the last two years of Porter’s massive contract, while Brooklyn was looking to stockpile assets. New York City felt like an obvious pit stop for Porter, a place for him to take a breather while the Nets shopped him around to get even more draft capital.

I assumed that the sharpshooting wing would score a ton of inefficient points while coasting on both sides of the ball. Instead, MPJ, freed of the stationary shooting role he’d occupied for so long in Denver, metamorphosed into a do-it-all offensive engine.

It’s not so much that Porter dropped 24 points per night; everyone knew he would fill up buckets like a fire brigade. But Porter’s usage rose by a massive 10% without sacrificing much efficiency, even surrounded by an incredible lack of talent. He had the second-highest rebounding and steal rates of his NBA life and doubled his career assist rate. Look at this gorgeous OOB play from coach Jordi Fernandez, which leverages the off-ball attention Porter receives to open up a quick alley-oop to a rolling Nic Claxton:

Most importantly, Porter did all that without ever hijacking the offense. It rarely ever felt like he was playing outside himself or puking up terrible shots. Critics will point out that the Nets were very bad with MPJ on the floor; smarter people will note that they were cataclysmic with him off. His +9.8 on/off split was the seventh-highest in the entire league.

It makes you wonder just how much more the Nuggets could have or should have featured him.

After the trade, Porter ruminated on his situation:

“When you’ve got a good team like [Denver], and you’ve got so many guys who are capable on the floor together, there’s gonna be guys that sacrifice… That’s the nature of when you’re on a championship team, and that happens throughout the league,” Porter Jr. said. “But I just think for me, you know, I averaged 21 [points] one year. Last year, I was around 18 as the third option. I just feel like I have more in my tank still. I don’t feel like I’ve reached my peak, and I’m excited to grow my game, expand my game, explore my game, and see what I could do.”

Just like with his shotmaking, Porter was right on the money. The Nets surprisingly held onto MPJ through the trade deadline last year, but his combination of off-ball shooting, size, and there-if-you-need-it creation skills again will make him highly sought after in February.

2) Amen Thompson

Look, I’m not gonna hate on Thompson too much. A third-year player averaging 18 points per game while shooting 57% from two-point range on a team with no spacing is nothing to joke about. He showcased some newly developed post footwork and dramatically increased his free-throw percentage.

I’m not even disappointed in the three-pointer failing to develop. I’ve said for his entire career that Thompson’s long-ball will never be a weapon; you’re more likely to catch a glimpse of Santa Claus than see Thompson shoot 35% on real volume for a season. Stop asking for it, stop hoping for it. I don’t want to hear one more “If the three-pointer ever comes along…” because it won’t.

Regardless, Thompson was my Defensive Player of the Year two years ago, and I still think he’s an incredible player. But.

But, but, but.

This year felt like a golden opportunity to step into a perfect role. The Rockets lost Fred VanVleet, their point guard, to a torn ACL in the offseason. Coach Ime Udoka openly despised playing second-year guard Reed Sheppard, and there were no other starter-quality point guards on the roster. Could Thompson step into a point-forward role and initiate the offense? My heart answered yes.

The reality was no. Thompson had his opportunities and failed to make the most of them. I still believe the passing vision is there, but he doesn’t have the ballhandling or technical craft to do more than execute the most basic passes out of the paint. Defenders obviously go under every pick, so he can’t exactly lean on the pick-and-roll game, either:

I’d hoped Thompson could manifest enough dribbling ability to lever his jaguarian athleticism into an advantage-creating weapon, gnawing open cracks in the defense’s shell and spraying out to what passed for Houston’s shooters on the perimeter. At the least, I wanted him to pair with Alperen Sengun for a little of the tiki-taka interior passing that Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler developed in their heydays for the Heat.

He demonstrated none of those things. By the end of the season, he was mostly back to skulking in the dunker spot.

Thompson is an elite perimeter defender, clever cutter, and transcendent transition player. Greedily, I’d just hoped that, coming out of his third season, he’d have shown the ability for even more.

3) Scottie Barnes

Mea culpa, Raptors faithful. You were right, and I was wrong. Barnes is awesome.

Barnes’ season went sort of under the radar; although he did make the All-Star Team and garner a Second Team All-Defensive nod, you’d have been hard-pressed to find any casual fans mentioning the Raptor in any context.

His regular-season numbers aren’t that different from his past exploits. With Brandon Ingram on the court, he actually shrunk away from the three-point line and accepted a slightly smaller offensive role, instead focusing on his immeasurable defensive gifts. He even played a decent amount of center early in the season!

But that all changed in the playoffs. With Immanuel Quickley out for the series and Ingram hampered by a foot injury, Barnes upped the aggression to heretofore-unseen levels. His shooting efficiency and his usage both rose (typically, those are inversely related), and his assist rate went through the roof (including games with 11, 14, and 11 dimes).

The mental pivot from guard dog to attack dog was delightful:

With few other options, Barnes stopped relying upon everyone else and became a legitimate two-way monster, outplaying draft-class nemesis Evan Mobley along the way.

Barnes’ postseason could have been even stronger if he hadn’t sustained a quad injury of his own late in the series. The contusion visibly slowed him, allowing the heavily favored Cavs to steal a first-round series they didn’t really deserve.

Yes, I’m banking on Barnes sustaining this level of play into next season, which might be a tall task. That’s still a much happier spot to be in than this time last year. I had worries about Barnes remaining an impact player in the playoffs. Now, I can’t wait to see him there again.

4) Paolo Banchero

This one hurts.

The debate online between Paolo Banchero supporters and Franz Wagner stans has raged almost since Day 1 of their partnership. I generally side with the analytical folks, who were universally on the Wagner bandwagon, in these sorts of debates, but I continually stuck my neck out for Banchero.

It’s a bummer to be both contrarian and wrong.

Frankly, neither wing covered themselves in glory for the Orlando Magic this season. Now, the debate isn’t so much Banchero vs. Wagner; it’s whether Banchero is any good as an alpha player at all.

I’m frustrated because Banchero actually did make strides in some areas. The criticism of Banchero was often misdirected this season. He was far less reliant upon his midrange jumper, which made up just 11% of his shot attempts (down from 17% the prior two years), and he attempted a whopping 42% of his field goals at the rim. His overall efficiency numbers were the best of his short career, even as his three-pointer abandoned him. His average touch time dropped from 4.2 seconds last year to 3.6 this year, indicative of a noticeable effort to move the ball more quickly.

But Banchero looked a little out of shape, or at least lacking in explosiveness. His turnover rate skyrocketed, and he fell into his hero-ball tendencies at inopportune moments. Worst of all, he took a dramatic step back defensively (something that could be said for much of Orlando’s roster, to be fair).

Too many times, he couldn’t break his man down with a dribble. Too many times, he got blown by defensively. Too many times, he couldn’t finish bunnies:

Banchero’s highs are still cloud-strewn. He had games of 45 and 38 points in the playoffs against a brutish Detroit defense. Then again, those alternated with matches shooting 4-for-20 and 4-for-18. The thrills of that roller coaster ride are why I can’t quite quit Banchero, but they’re also what kills me.

I haven’t given up on Banchero entirely. The Magic looked like a different team in the playoffs, and they almost certainly would’ve beaten Detroit if Wagner hadn’t gotten hurt in Game 4, causing Orlando to drop three straight matches.

But I think it’s both interesting and depressing that Banchero played a whopping 72 games this season and didn’t come close to an All-Star team, much less an All-NBA squad. Has he peaked? Is this just who Banchero is?

23-year-olds still have plenty of chances to write their history, but Banchero needs to overcome his writer’s block.

5) Devin Vassell

Vassell is a different case.

Vassell’s scoring declined as Wemby, Castle, Harper, and Fox took center stage. But his efficiency improved (38% from deep on a lot of attempts) and his defense bounced back in a huge way. All season long, I’ve loved the way he rotated off the ball, appreciating in particular how he plays off Wemby’s roaming around. He was attentive and engaged:

Someone who was once pegged as a weak link became the Spurs’ go-to guy for playoff stretches on Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And while you shouldn’t expect these too often, he even had a couple of monster stuffs at the rim:

Advanced stats had Vassell making a huge leap from below average to above average on D, so it’s not just my lyin’ eyes.

Mostly, I admired the way Vassell condensed into his role. Like a coiled spring, he never lost his energy. He simply learned how to channel it more effectively, maximizing its impact on the game.