The real way Cam Johnson helps the Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets had finally had enough.

Maybe it was the knowledge that Michael Porter Jr. was a ticking time bomb in more ways than one. Maybe it was internal pressure from minority owners or Nikola Jokic himself to make improvements to the roster. Maybe it was simply about slashing luxury tax bills and creating space under the aprons.

(Okay, it was definitely about the luxury tax bills.)

Whatever the reason, the Nuggets finally offloaded Michael Porter Jr. along with a 2032 unprotected first. Frankly, I assumed a nice first-rounder would be the going price to accept damaged goods making 25% of the salary cap this year and next, so I was pleasantly surprised when the Nuggets also received back Cameron Johnson.

I didn’t get much chance to talk about what this trade meant to the Nuggets when it occurred, thanks to the initial free-agent frenzy, so I’m making up for it now. Sure, the trade was as much about the fiscal side as the court side. But in my opinion, this isn’t about maintaining what they already had (an unstoppable starting five); it’s about fixing the team’s longstanding weakness (an apocalyptically bad bench). And it turns out that in the apron age, billionaires saving money on tax bills often equates to more teambuilding freedom, too. Win-win!

Johnson isn’t MPJ. Nor is he a taller Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the 3-and-D wing who was excellent in Denver for years. That’s good! Johnson brings something new to a Nuggets team that needs his exact skill set.

Let’s start with who Johnson is as a player. He may not be quite the deadeye shooter Porter Jr. is, but he ain’t far from it. Johnson has shot 39% or better from deep in five of his six NBA seasons, including the last four, on solid volume. He’s mostly been a catch-and-shoot guy in his career, but he attempted two pull-up threes per game last season, a healthy number!

Johnson has also been more active off-ball than Porter Jr. (although that’s not a knock on MPJ as much as it is an acknowledgment of a different offensive system). Brooklyn coach Jordi Fernandez ran Johnson into a million handoffs last year to give him a little space to uncork that deadly shot. Defenses adjusted as Johnson continuously crept up the Nets’ pecking order (thanks to his own play and the team’s firesale of veterans), so Johnson developed counters for when defenders started jumping the play:

Will new(ish) Denver coach David Adelman lean into Johnson’s movement shooting, or are they planning on sticking him on the wing to be a semi-stationary spacer for Jokic in the middle? That remains to be seen, but I’m hopeful for the former.

Johnson is also an elite finisher, a beast in transition (he and Christian Braun will be a deadly fast break duo), and a surprisingly strong in-game dunker. We’ve seen what Jokic has done for Aaron Gordon, and while Johnson will spend more of his time at the three-point line instead of the dunker spot, he will give Jokic another three-dimensional target to pass to. I guarantee Johnson sells a few posters this season.

One area Porter Jr. had a clear-cut advantage in was on the glass. He is a borderline elite rebounder at either forward position, whereas Johnson is pedestrian. But that won’t hurt as much as people think; any slack left when Johnson picks up the glasswork rope will be pulled taut by Jokic and Aaron Gordon (although I should note that Denver as a team was uncharacteristically meh as a rebounding unit last year; something to watch).

Johnson, however, brings significantly more playmaking than the man he replaces. For one thing, he can dribble the ball a little; that’s an upgrade. He’s also a willing dime-dropper with court vision instead of tunnel vision:

Per Synergy, Brooklyn has scored at an above-median rate when Johnson is the ballhandler in the pick-and-roll (including passes) for each of the last three seasons (which he ran on about a quarter of his used possessions). That will be a nice change of pace from MPJ, who did so on less than 8% of his possessions.

Opinions vary widely on Johnson’s defense, and that shows in the advanced numbers. Synergy stats say he’s pretty good everywhere except in isolation (not an issue with Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon on the team), EPM marks him as slightly below-average, and DARKO thinks he’s abysmal.

When the alphabet soup metrics taste funny, it’s time to hit the film. It is true that Johnson’s reputation as a defender has been overblown since his Phoenix days. Johnson is a good vertical athlete, but he’s not a great lateral mover, and he stays too high in his stance. Fast guards can blow by him, and bigger players power right through:

Johnson is also weirdly lackadaisical at times in transition, like when he forgets to keep running back here:

But it’s not all bad! Johnson is a pretty solid team defender, quick to slide over when things are breaking down. I have no idea what the Nets were trying to do on this inbounds play, but kudos to Johnson for managing to defend Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby by himself:

A 6’10” wingspan helps mitigate some of his quickness issues, and while Johnson gets bowled over by larger forwards, he’s sturdy enough against wings:

His weaknesses in isolation shouldn’t matter as much when opposing offenses will be hell-bent on putting Jokic and Murray in the NutriBullet as much as possible, and he has enough length to be a helpful helper. Overall, I’d grade Johnson right around average.

And average should be more than good enough for him to survive against opposing bench units, which gets to the heart of the matter.

Johnson’s role will differ from MPJ’s most in the scant minutes of rest that Jokic is allowed each game, when Nuggets faithful typically whip out some rosary beads and start praying. The Nugs scored just 106 points per 100 possessions when Jokic rested last season, a bottom-decile figure and an astonishing 22 points per 100 fewer than when he played.

Johnson won’t replicate his Brooklyn box scores in Denver, but we’ll still see him activate his scoring potential in those brief moments of need:

Realistically, Johnson’s teammates for most of the last two years were not better than the Nuggets’ second unit (assuming Murray stays on the court to help). If Johnson could keep the offense humming for Brooklyn (and they were above-average on offense for much of last year before they stopped trying!), hopefully, he can do the same at a higher altitude.

Johnson will be a starter, but I’d bet he teams up with some combination of Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, and Jonas Valanciunas to form a rather mean second unit. Murray has never been able to keep Jokic-less units going by himself. But Johnson brings second-side creation and dangerous shooting, Hardaway is a veteran floor-spacer, Valanciunas is a bruising backup center, and Bruce Brown theoretically provides some zip, cutting, and secondary playmaking (although we haven’t seen Brown be good since Jokic was donning goggles and chugging championship champagne). Throw a sprinkle of Poetry favorite and defensive monster Peyton Watson in the mix, and we have a tasty dish! Remember, the benchmark here isn’t excellence; it’s simply to avoid being historically bad. Sounds like an easy bar to step over, yet the Nuggets have tripped on it over and over again!

Johnson’s ability to help Murray keep the Nuggets from completely bleeding out to start the second and fourth quarters is the real benefit the Nuggets received for their first-round pick. I wouldn’t want Johnson as my primary scorer going against starters (even if he performed reasonably well in that role for Brooklyn), but he’s more than proven as a second option going against backups.

While it’s easy to say the Nuggets weren’t as close to beating OKC as a Game 7 would make it sound, a better bench might have given Denver the two-seed, in which case they wouldn’t have needed to face the Thunder that early to begin with. Denver will always be a title contender as long as the big man in the middle plays at an MVP level. Johnson will fit perfectly next to Jokic, as any shooter with a pulse does, but his ability to help the second unit tread water is what should make this trade a major win for the Nuggets.