The Wizards' Deni Avdija has found himself

Calling this a “lost” season for Washington does a disservice to the Wizards. After finally trading Bradley Beal in the offseason, this was always going to be a transitional year, although it’s fair to say the on-court product has been even worse than expected.

Thankfully, the Wizards have found something in fourth-year player Deni Avdija. Or perhaps it’s more accurate to say that Avdija found something in himself.

A sturdy 6’9”, Avdija made a name for himself in Washington with defensive play early in his career, but his offensive role was always uncertain thanks to a shaky jumper and unclear roster fit. However, a series of transactions and ailments have resulted in complete rotational upheaval: the Wizards traded starting center Daniel Gafford before the deadline, bought out reserve guard Delon Wright, moved Jordan Poole to the bench (which has somewhat revitalized the helter-skelter shooting guard), and dealt with injuries to new starting center Marvin Bagley.

Besides missing a few games due to his own minor injury, Avdija has been the biggest beneficiary of all those missing shots and touches. After growing his role in January, Avdija’s usage spiked up to 22% from February onwards — in the neighborhood of players like former teammate Kristaps Porzingis and Spurs guard Devin Vassell.

Usage is the percentage of a team’s plays that a player “uses” by taking a shot, assisting a teammate, or turning it over. Interestingly, Avdija — a good passer — is assisting less often in his current hot streak than he was earlier in the year. Instead, he has made a concerted effort to get up shots (particularly at the basket, where he takes half of his attempts). He’s taking more than four additional shots per game since February started, up to 13.2 FGA from 9.1.

That’s a lot of new shots!

Avdija’s emergence culminated with a 43-point outburst against the Pelicans on Valentine’s Day, the fourth straight game in which he scored at least 20 points. After missing a few games with injury, he’s continued scoring between 14 and 18 points in each of his last seven, a notable improvement for the career nine-point scorer.

The inflection point began in January when coach Wes Unseld moved to the front office and assistant Brian Keefe was promoted to head honcho. Keefe has empowered Avdija to handle the ball more (he’s setting a career-high in touches this season, and recently, he’s averaged 64 touches per game — just a few below Steph Curry and Mike Conley).

Washington has the fastest pace in the league, and Avdija is grabbing-and-going more than ever. The Wizards’ roster upheaval has forced the team to use smaller lineups, but Avdija is feasting on the boards. After averaging a tad over six per game for the first half of the season, he has reeled in nine per contest since while posting one of the league’s best rebounding rates for a forward.

Avdija has long been empowered to bring the ball up off live rebounds, but he’s not doing it for fun anymore. Where in the past he might’ve looked for a kickout for a corner three or pulled up to reset the offense, now he’s looking for someone to Hulk smash for a bruising layup:

Avdija uses his shoulders like sweaty, pasty battering rams. Even in a halfcourt setting, he is hunting weaker players and running them over like so much roadkill:

It’s not just strength that’s fueling his success. On the rare occasions Avdija doesn’t get the rebound himself, he’s sprinting to the hoop in transition, where teammates are doing a good job finding him:

There’s a reason they call the man “Turbo,” and it’s not because he casually jogs around.

His newfound aggression translates in the most fundamental way, too: Avdija is dunking the ball at a higher rate than ever. The average NBA player actually dunks less often (as a percentage of total shots) as their career goes on, but Avdija’s putting up the best dunking mark of his career. This takeoff from behind the dotted line showcases his underrated athleticism:

The key to Avdija’s offensive sustainability, however, might be his improved three-pointer. After coming into the season with a revamped, higher-arcing shooting form, Avdija isn’t taking many more threes, but he’s making a lot more. After shooting around 31% in his first three seasons, Avdija is nailing 40% of his triples this year. He’s still only taking three triples per game (four since February), but defenses no longer treat him like a plague monster. Even given his low volume, defenders feel obligated to at least attempt a close-out, opening room for Avdija’s dribble-drive game. The new attention allows Avdija to decisively catch defenders off-guard, utilizing a quick burst to get past scrambling defenses and get to the rim:

Of late, Avdija has been driving far more than he has in previous seasons (10 times per game — about the same as Paolo Banchero and Tyrese Haliburton). In those forays to the paint, he’s been passing less and shooting more. He almost always goes to the right: per Synergy, Avdija drives right three-fourths of the time, barely ever going straight or left. That predilection towards his strong hand will be a problem in the long run, but young players usually need to develop some level of ambidexterity. Smart defenses have already begun shading him heavier to the left, and we’ll see more of that until Avdija can prove he can make them pay with his sinister side.

More defensive attention, in general, has highlighted one major problem for Avdija: a penchant for truly terrible turnovers. Those bruising drives result in a fair number of charges, and they aren’t exactly judgment calls:

And while Avdija has very good vision for forward, he doesn’t always put the right touch on passes, floating them past rim-runners or lofting easily intercepted softballs to shooters. When he puts his head down and gets to the rim, if the shot isn’t there, his instinct is to force-feed whoever is sitting in the dunker spot. It often ends poorly:

(His teammates do not have great hands, and plenty of perfectly acceptable passes are fumbled away, but this is still mostly a Deni problem.)

Turnovers are a natural byproduct of a young player expanding into greater space. When you give a toddler a mail-order toy, some packing peanuts inevitably fly. Messes are to be expected. Avdija is handling the ball far more than before and feeling out what works and what doesn’t. Many of his issues are addressable, particularly as he matures and tightens his handle and decision-making, but they still stick out right now.

In general, Avdija has been more aggressive and less hesitant this season. His straight-line drives add a little oomph to a Washington offense that lacks it otherwise. Avdija isn’t meant to be a first or even second option on offense in the long run, but we’ve rarely seen him even pretend to be a scorer in his first three seasons. This new mindset is a welcome development.

Defensively, Avdija remains unusually flexible. He ranks second in Bball-Index’s defensive versatility metric for all players who have played at least 1,000 minutes, and his list of most common matchups includes Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Paolo Banchero, Jimmy Butler, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Wizards often station Avdija as the last line of defense. Avdija has played a little bit of small-ball center, but even when he’s guarding a forward, coach Keefe positions him aggressively. He’ll have a foot in the paint despite guarding decent outside shooters, but he’s a good enough close-out artist to sprint back and bother his mark when the ball swings their way. If he’s guarding a non-shooter? He’ll be so deep that he has to watch for a defensive three-second count.

Despite Avdija’s size and athleticism, his relatively short arms limit his steals and blocks. But he’s positionally sound and takes a lot of pride in defense, a rarity on a Washington team with the worst defensive rating in the league. The team surrenders 5.7 more points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench, in the 90th percentile and the starkest on/off split of anyone on the team.

Strong on/off numbers have been a consistent theme for Avdija over each of the last three years. The team is simply better when Avdija is on the floor. Avdija won’t be a consistent 30-point scorer, but the ability to hit open threes and a new willingness to attack the hoop put his ceiling on stilts. If he can up his volume a little bit more, he profiles as a good starter on a playoff team. He has the exact mix of ballhandling and passing that a tertiary starter needs to be a plus playmaker, and a little less offensive responsibility and a little more experience should alleviate the turnover problem. The defense will get him on the floor, while the shooting — if real — will keep him there longer. Playoff teams are desperate for jack-of-all-trade players with positional versatility, so if Washington’s rebuild goes slowly and they want to stockpile more assets, Avdija could be an intriguing, high-value trade chip down the line.

Is this the sexiest storyline? Will Deni Avdija earn any end-of-year awards? Is he a future superstar? No. (I think.) But even in the turbid waters of the Potomac River, there are glimmers of hope to be found in the muck. Not every player has to be a household name to be an important contributor. Avdija is becoming the exact sort of player every winning team needs to complement their alpha dog.

With rookie Bilal Coulibaly showing intriguing flashes (particularly on defense) and two first-round picks in this year’s draft, Washington’s reload is coming. At just 23 years old, Avdija can be a capable (if imperfect) steward of the team through the next few years. And when the Wiz are ready to compete again, Avdija will be squarely in his prime and ready to show off his winning attributes.