Thoughts on Paul George, Klay Thompson, the Pelicans, the Lakers, and more

Hello, everyone!

I’ve been pumping out a lot of words over the last week or two for paid and free subscribers alike, so I’ll be taking a very brief hiatus for the Fourth of July weekend. I’ll return in a few days (unless something wild happens first!).

But we have lots of big news I haven’t covered thoroughly yet, so let’s start muckin’ the slop.

The Sixers take shape

The Sixers still only have half a roster under contract, but the leading players seem set. There will be the inevitable flood of moderately interesting veteran minimums (which seldom live up to the hype — remember Phoenix last season?). Still, for now, it looks like Philly rolls into next season with this core, give or take a Paul Reed:

Tyrese Maxey
Eric Gordon
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Paul George
Joel Embiid
Andre Drummond

We have to start with the big, obvious caveat. I don’t talk much about health around these parts simply because there’s nothing interesting to say about the topic. The most important determining factor in a championship is having your core pieces healthy in the playoffs, and both Paul George and Joel Embiid have a long, troubling history in that regard.

But you only need to capture lightning in a bottle once to win a championship. So, for the sake of analysis, let’s pretend Philly has an intact jar and a thunderstorm headed their way. A George/Embiid/Maxey trio is the best-fitting and most potent offensive trio in the league, and two of those three are superb defenders, as well (sorry, Maxey).

The beauty of having George is that he’s good at everything. He’s a perfect floor-spacer for Maxey drives and Embiid post-ups, but he’s more than capable of initiating the offense when the big man has to rest. The Sixers were annihilated last year when Embiid sat despite Maxey’s ascendance. Having another offensive player who can carry the system should help them survive those minutes. In a perfect world, a PG+Maxey+Drummond lineup is good enough to let Embiid rest more frequently.

I picked George as an All-NBA player last season, but even I can admit that George has lost a quarter-step. Last season, he got into the lane at the lowest rate of his career and shot fewer free throws than he has since his third season in the league. Quicker players made him look mud-stuck a surprising amount compared to years past.

But Philly has Maxey to be their jitterbug blow-by speedster, and Embiid’s rim protection can compensate for George’s still relatively few defensive mistakes. George’s outrageous shotmaking, both off the dribble and on catch-and-shoots, is his key attribute.

Just 10 players shot more triples per game than George last season. Only one (CJ McCollum) made them at a higher rate. He can hit defenders with silky stepbacks or make triples while curling full-speed off a screen. He doesn’t care if there’s a hand in his face:

George also provides a new wrinkle for Philly with his wing one-on-one bucket-getting. Last year, he was one of the league’s most prolific isolation scorers. The dribble combinations, fadeaways, and footwork are as effective as they are aesthetically pleasing:

Getting George is a home run, but it still comes at a literal and metaphorical cost. This roster will be thin, even if Kyle Lowry returns as expected. The Sixers desperately need Kelly Oubre to maintain last year’s relative defensive competence (on-ball, at least) while finding something remotely approaching a league-average three-point shot. Eric Gordon is a reliable floor-spacer, but he’s turning 36 this season, and his defense and dribble-drive game could crack at any moment.

Philly still needs better point-of-attack defenders. George can do it, but he’s 34 himself and not quite as good on-ball against quicker guards as he once was (he’s still a demon jumping passing lanes). The incoming, yet-to-be-named role players need some shooting capabilities, and guys who can shoot and defend don’t usually take minimums.

Overall, I’m no longer a believer in the Big 3 model, although Philly’s trio fits as well as any we’ve seen in the last half-decade. As I’ve said a few times recently, the playoffs are now about minimizing weaknesses, not bolstering strengths. Whoever the Sixers acquire to fill out the roster undoubtedly will have exploitable flaws, and deeper teams like Boston and New York can wedge into the tiniest cracks, undermining an opponent’s foundation.

But the Sixers were in danger of becoming second-rate citizens in the East. The George free agency signing, unlikely as it seemed at the start of last season, vaults their ceiling several rounds higher.

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