Timberwolves/Nuggets Preview: 5 Questions for the Titan-Battle

A handful of things to watch for in the most anticipated second-round series in years

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets clash we’ve been waiting for all season is finally here! I’m as excited for this series to tip off as Jokic is:

The Eastern Conference certainly has intrigue. The Celtics look as dominant as expected, Knicks/76ers was one of the most entertaining playoff series ever, Magic/Cavs is looking like a seven-gamer, and, uh, Doc Rivers made good on his promise.

But if you want the best basketball battles, you must cross the Mississippi. The Nuggets survived a hard-fought five-game series against Los Angeles, while the Wolves put the league on notice by sweeping the Phoenix Suns with embarrassing, franchise-shaking ease. Now, the two teams clash in the second round.

These division rivals played five games in the playoffs last year and four times in the regular season this year. Remember, the Nuggets beat the Wolves in one of the last games of the regular season, a deciding factor in why they have home-court advantage in this series. Almost none of those games occurred with both teams at full strength the way they are now (the exception being the very first regular-season match these two played this year, all the way back on November 1st), but there’s still lots of footage to pore over.

So, pore over, I did! But the more I watched, the more uncertainty I gained. Here are five key questions for the upcoming battle of the Titans.

Can KAT stay out of foul trouble?

The favored tactic on Jokic right now is to guard him with a bulky power forward and have a center lurk in the back to help. The Wolves will undoubtedly start Karl-Anthony Towns on Jokic, as they’ve done in the past, and station Rudy Gobert on non-shooter Aaron Gordon to provide the backline help. Nothing stops Jokic, but this has had moments of slowing him down — when KAT avoids getting into foul trouble.

Towns is a fascinating character. He hasn’t gotten enough credit this season for his effort on defense, which has been the best of his career. He tried harder than anyone last season to integrate Gobert into the team even when Gobert struggled, and he never lost faith in his fellow big man. Towns has gracefully moved into a clear second in the pecking order on offense behind Anthony Edwards, something that many other max-contract stars in their prime might chafe at.

KAT was an All-Star ten weeks ago; he’s a good and smart player. The problem: three or four times per game, his brain smooths over, and he forgets the rules of basketball.

If that sounds bad, well, it is! Here’s KAT blasting through a pick like the Kool-Aid man:

(Watch Jaden McDaniels’ reaction at the bottom of the screen. This happened in the last few minutes of a close game. Inexcusable!)

The funny thing is that the more egregious the foul, the angrier and shorts-grabbier KAT gets:

Those are two defensive examples from the most recent series, but Towns’ biggest problem is a tendency on offense to lower his shoulder and start swinging his off-arm like a battering ram. To his credit, he only had two offensive fouls in Minny’s four-game sweep of the Suns. If he can avoid picking up stupid fouls, he can stay on the court longer. And no one has ever said this about KAT, ever, but the Wolves might need him for his defense more than his offense in this series.

If Towns is limited, the Wolves have guarded Jokic with Gobert one-on-one (to little effect; Jokic has figured out how to score in that matchup with ease) and backup forwards Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson. Anderson has absolutely no chance. Reid is too small. KAT is the only one with a real shot.

Jokic went for just 25 points and three assists in the first Wolves/Nuggets game this season, the only one in which Towns played. Towns accrued just two fouls. That’s one game, and Jokic played better than that in last year’s playoffs against a similar (if weaker) defensive alignment. But it shows the ceiling the Wolves can reach when Towns is foul-free and available to pester Jokic.

This is the dream for Minnesota:

Towns stays disciplined and puts up stiff resistance against Jokic, who uncharacteristically puts his head down and doesn’t see the help coming. Gobert looms in the paint to take away the spin, and Jaden McDaniels comes from behind for the block (hilariously spiking it right off Jokic’s dome). Almost no team in the league can make Jokic look foolish; the Wolves have the personnel to do it regularly.

Towns will have some foul trouble; he always does. But whether it happens twice or three times might decide the match.

How does Jokic attack?

The Wolves had the best defense in the league during the regular season by a crushing margin. They have good defensive players throughout both the starting lineup and the bench. You can see the life slowly being choked out of an offense when they fly around in perfect, fierce rotation:

That’s incredible. The Suns attempt to get a mismatch with Durant on the smaller Mike Conley. Towns comes to double, so Durant kicks back out to the perimeter, but the ball has nowhere to go. Look how much ground everyone has to cover; Conley ends up in the opposite corner!

Consensus suggests that doubling Nikola Jokic is asking for trouble, as the best passer in the league is tall enough to see over double-teams and find the open man every time. But if the Wolves can be on a string like that, the occasional double-team can and should be part of their arsenal. It’s important to throw Jokic some off-speed pitches to keep him guessing.

The Wolves prefer to play Jokic relatively straight-up (with Gobert by the rim) and let him score. He’s scored 33.3 points per game against Minny this season, his second-most against anyone, on his usual robust efficiency. Nobody has been better about limiting Jokic as a playmaker, however. He’s only averaged 4.3 assists per game against the Wolves.

Part of that is thanks to the Wolves’ length and speed (see the rotation clip above); the cross-court passes Jokic loves to throw over defenders’ heads are harder to see and make when every defender can touch their toes without bending over. The Wolves have been disciplined about staying home on Murray and sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr. (although they will help off of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at times — how effective will KCP be shooting on a balky ankle?).

The Wolves have faith in the Towns/Gobert combo to stymie Jokic and Gordon; they won’t compromise their defense often if it gives up open triples and back-cuts.

Another reason for Jokic’s interesting point/assist splits is how the Nuggets have gotten Jokic the ball. They know that Gobert will guard Gordon, and Gobert is one of the few players in the league who can effectively help on Jokic without ceding dunker-spot jams to Aaron Gordon.

The solution has been to station Gordon higher up the floor and use him as more of a playmaker. If Gordon brings the ball up, at least once or twice per game, Jokic will try and run ahead for an early seal and layup:

And with Gobert playing so far off of Gordon, there will be room for some dribble-hand-off and screen-setting for Murray:

(Gordon, unsurprisingly, has averaged more assists against the Timberwolves than his season-wide mark.)

Jokic is one of the most versatile offensive players in the league, and his off-ball movement is an underrated but massive part of that. The Nuggets put him in every type of action imaginable to free him and get him a moment’s edge. They love to run this play, in which Jokic screens for Murray off-ball before curling along the baseline past a double screen from shooters Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s almost always open for the catch on the right wing (although Naz Reid, filling for an injured KAT in this game, does a particularly poor job getting to him in this instance):

Jokic, not used to being so open, inexplicably misses, but that’s a shot he makes 46 times out of 47. Towns and Reid will have to make his life harder at the point of the catch. Jokic sometimes resembles the world’s biggest, slowest, most indefatigable Rip Hamilton impersonator. Big men aren’t used to chasing their marks around screens, but the Wolves must keep up to prevent Jokic from getting to his spots without resistance.

Finally, Jokic will always be able to find room for some triples against Towns and Reid, who prefer to play for the drive. Philosophically, he doesn’t like to shoot from deep, yet he launches nearly four per game against the Wolves — a reprieve from repeatedly bashing against their size inside. A couple of long-balls rimming in or out could be the difference in the small sample size of the playoffs.

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