Which new NBA head coach is best set up for success?
Which new NBA head coach is best set up for success?
A full 20% of NBA teams will have a new coach this season, but some are in better situations than others
The NBA’s offseason coaching carousel has stopped, and there will be six fresh faces walking the sidelines when the next NBA season starts. JJ Redick (Lakers), JB Bickerstaff (Pistons), Jordi Fernandez (Nets), Charles Lee (Hornets), Mike Budenholzer (Suns), and Kenny Atkinson (Cavs) will all be making their franchise debut.
Who is best set up for success?
Success, of course, means different things to different teams. Some want to make deep playoff runs; some won’t care about wins and losses but want to see stability and improvement.
Not all opportunities are created equal, but there are only 30 head coaching jobs in the league; most of the time, candidates take what they can get. Let’s discuss who is best positioned to achieve their team’s goals.
1) Jordi Fernandez, Brooklyn Nets
In many ways, nobody has it easier than Fernandez. I’ve seen people say the Nets might post the worst record in league history, and while that feels aggressive, the goal is to lose as many games as possible. The team isn’t completely bereft of talent, but outside of Nic Claxton, its most exciting young player might be Noah Clowney. I like Noah Clowney, but that’s a bad position to be in.
Fernandez, like all coaches, won’t be coaching to lose. But designing systems to place sub-NBA-level players into positions to succeed will be a nightmare, and I feel terrible for any coach who has to build a functional offense around a green-lit Cam Thomas.
Few or none of these players will be on the next iteration of a competitive Brooklyn squad, and the Nets are almost certain to trade decent vets like Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith. I’m not really sure how to measure success for the Nets next season; the only real goal is to get a top draft spot, and that’s far more about luck than coaching. But barring straight-up personnel dysfunction or scandal, Fernandez almost can’t fail, so by that measure, I suppose he tops the list.
2) Charles Lee, Charlotte Hornets
Among real jobs with definable parameters for succeeding and falling short, the Charlotte Hornets’ opening has the most well-paved road to success.
The Hornets are still rebuilding. They simply want to show progress and maybe make a little play-in push. It will not be a disaster if they miss the playoffs (especially since they only keep their first-round draft pick if it’s in the lottery).
Given how injury-plagued Charlotte was last season, they will likely be better by default. The team has also established a far deeper bench, so even if they are unlucky again, they can at least remain competitive.
I’m excited for Charles Lee to take this position, as he was one of the most highly-regarded assistants in the league during his tenures in Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Boston. He’s a charismatic coach who should connect with players and fans alike. Having served under both Mike Budenholzer and Joe Mazzulla, we can expect him to install a three-point-heavy offensive system.
With LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Mark Williams, and more, there are some intriguing young building blocks on the roster. It’s not insane to believe the Hornets could be a top-10 offense this season; they were the sixth-ranked attack in LaMelo’s only healthy year, 2021-22.
The Hornets will be a summer movie: fast-paced and action-packed, light on substance but perfect with some popcorn. It’s hard to see this team underperforming modest expectations unless they get bit by the injury bug again, and in that situation, it’s hard to blame the coach. Lee has found himself in a pretty good place to start his head coaching career.
3) Mike Budenholzer, Phoenix Suns
The Suns’ biggest issue last season was a sense of aimlessness. Although they boasted the ninth-ranked offense in the league, it never clicked like it should have despite good health from four of its five most important players. Their first-round sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves exposed their math problem: the Wolves launched 134 three-pointers to the Suns’ 104. That’s tough to overcome.
If there’s one thing you can be sure of, it’s that a Budenholzer-led team always knows what it’s supposed to be doing (and it’s supposed to be shooting threes). Critics have accused him of rigidity in the playoffs, but the Suns, despite a respectable 49-33 record last season, still need to figure out who they are in the regular season.
Budenholzer will stamp an identity right onto their chests: space the floor for drive-and-kicks, jack up triples, and never, ever foul (Bud has coached 10 NBA seasons; his teams have had a top-10 free-throw allowed rate each year).
I’m high on Budenholzer’s fit for this team, but there are plenty of pratfalls to avoid. Kevin Durant (turning 36 in two weeks), Bradley Beal, and center Jusuf Nurkic have a long history of health problems, and the stars’ steadfast refusal to shoot more long bombs in their careers could put them at loggerheads with Coach Bud. Durant has never been shy about expressing his disapproval of coaches.
But Phoenix’s depth has been bolstered this offseason (Tyus Jones and Monte Morris at point guard, Mason Plumlee at center), giving them far more day-to-day resiliency. The Suns also have a superb collection of shooting talent between the Big Three, Grayson Allen, and Old Reliable (Royce O’Neale), something Budenholzer will make better use of than his predecessor (the poor Frank Vogel, perhaps the least-respected championship-winning coach of our time. It’s a miracle he got this team to be an above-median defense last year).
There’s no doubt Phoenix went out in ugly fashion last season, but that distasteful end to the season means that people have given up on Phoenix as a contender. I want to see what they look like with new leadership.