Why are the Boston Celtics struggling?
The Boston Celtics are an extremely mortal 11-10 in their last 21 matches. Why?
The defending champs came into the season claiming they had greater motivation than ever. They bristled at the perception that their road last year was easy. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were publicly irritated at how the Olympics turned the former into a bystander and the latter into an at-home spectator. Joe Mazzulla was ripping off delightfully deranged quotes about the animal kingdom.
That motivation showed, at first. The Celtics were riding high after beating the Washington Wizards on December 15th. They were 21-5, had the best offense in the league on the back of an attack that took more three-pointers than twos, and looked every bit the part of a defending champion hellbent on retaining their throne.
However, on December 19th, the Celtics lost to the Chicago Bulls. Since that Wizards win, the team is merely 11-10. Even some of the victories feel hollow. So, what the heck is happening in Beantown?
Like many of you, I began this second-quarter cold stretch assuming this was a typical midseason lull. The Celtics were historically dominant last season, and there’s no reason to think a tougher playoff schedule would have done anything to trip them up. At the start of this year, a second straight championship felt almost inevitable.
But I had very similar feelings last year about the Denver Nuggets. I waited all season for them to really turn it on. Instead, they missed out on the one-seed by falling to a bad Spurs team on the last game of the season (Devonte’ Graham may be one of the unlikeliest candidates to have changed NBA history; he has not played a game this year after hitting that shot). They ended up losing to a Minnesota team that had spent the offseason fine-tuning its approach to beat Denver. Is the same thing happening here?
Let’s peek under the hood to see if we can diagnose what’s making that weird noise in Boston’s engine. Is 1,900 words enough? That’s probably enough.
The overview
We’ll begin at the top. As mentioned, before that loss to Chicago, the Celtics were 21-5 (right up there with Cleveland’s 23-4 and OKC’s 20-5) and sported the league’s second-best net rating at +11.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s actually better than they were on December 16th last year, when they started 19-5 and boasted a mere +9.5 net rating (which was still second-best).
But since then, the team has gone 11-10 and had a net rating of +6.4, tied for seventh-best. Last year, they went 45-13 the rest of the way and had a net rating of +12.0.
All losses are disappointing with Boston’s bay-sized expectations, but there have still been too many stinkers. A loss to Orlando missing its three best offensive players in Paolo Banchero and the Brothers Wagner; losses to the Bulls, the Raptors without Immanuel Quickley, and the Kings without De’Aaron Fox; and a dispiriting “win” in overtime against a Los Angeles Clippers team missing its four best players (Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Norman Powell, and Ivica Zubac).
A few of those games featured missing Celtics or short rest, but they were favored in all.
Even more understandable losses, like to the Thunder and Rockets, featured blown double-digit leads and ugly finishes. OKC outscored Boston 29-12 in the final period; the Rockets made up a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit last night.
Fourth-quarter problems
Those aren’t major outliers. Since December 16th, opponents are outscoring Boston by -4.6 points per 100 fourth-quarter possessions. Boston typically dominates the first three quarters but routinely lets their foot off the gas in the fourth.
Last season, the Celtics dominated fourth quarters to the tune of a +7.0 net rating that likely would’ve been even better if they hadn’t played so many games in garbage time.
Is it exhaustion? Perhaps. Jayson Tatum has played 5,015 minutes of NBA basketball, including playoffs, since the start of last season. Only Anthony Edwards has played more. Derrick White has played 4,536 minutes. Jrue Holiday, 4,201, and Jaylen Brown, 4,469. The first three all went to the Olympics, too. That’s a lot of basketball.