Why your team won't win the Finals

Looking at every contender's biggest flaw before the trade deadline

We’re nearly halfway into the season, which means top teams are taking a hard look at themselves before the fast-approaching trade deadline.

I generally have a wider circle of contenders than most; you never know what happens with injuries, matchups, etc. Plus, generously assigning puncher’s chances allows me to write about more teams, which is always fun!

Today, I wanted to examine these teams’ most likely fatal flaw. That doesn’t necessarily mean something that’s killing them in the regular season. I’m using my third eye to project into the future. Why would these teams lose in the different context of the playoffs?

All of these eight squads are very good; that’s why they’re on the list. This isn’t hating. It’s important to look objectively at teams to figure out where their weaknesses might be and how teams can address them before it’s too late to do anything.

Enough preamble; you get it.

New York Knicks

Secondary playmaking

I try to dig a little deeper than your average NBA wordsmith, so I’ll do my best to acknowledge the low-hanging fruit smashing us over the head like pumpkins and then move on. The Knicks, as always, are at major risk of injury and general run-downedness by the playoffs due to the sheer workload their starters are accumulating.

Tommy Beer

covered this in-depth a few days ago, so I’ll leave the details to him, but the short version is that nearly every Knicks’ starter is leading the league in minutes for his position.

You could mine Mikal Bridges for adamantium, and Josh Hart is tireless. But Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby, in particular, have troubling injury histories, and Brunson carries a remarkably heavy load per minute, never mind gross.

One side effect of running out the same lineups for so many minutes is that the Knicks don’t possess a ton of offensive diversity. The Brunson/Towns two-man game is a strong offensive engine, but as

Neil Paine

and

Marc Campbell

note in their excellent breakdown here, it’s had diminishing returns as the season has progressed.

Fans would rightfully argue that it hasn’t mattered to this point — the Knicks have the second-best attack by rating, and the offense hasn’t fallen off much over time. But I firmly believe that the playoffs are about versatility and optionality, not having a few major strengths. Teams must develop counters, and I’m worried the Knicks won’t have the horses to change course when (not if) they need to.

Bridges’ playmaking is paint-by-numbers; I’m unsure how scalable it is. Towns has awesome passing flashes followed by turnovers that make me want to put my eyeballs out of their misery. No one else can do much dribbling or creation for anyone other than themselves, with one exception: Josh Hart, who brings more questions than answers.

I love Hart, and he’s averaging a huge number of assists, but the Knicks’ vaunted offense is massively worse whenever he steps on the floor (although it remains excellent overall). It’s hard to survive in the playoffs as a non-shooting center, even though Hart brings so much other value to the table. He’s in the best possible situation next to KAT at center, but I am deeply concerned about what happens to Hart’s impact when another non-shooter like Mitchell Robinson takes the floor. Something to monitor.

The Knicks are an odd team. I believe that in the playoffs, their defense will be better, but their offense will be worse. To what extent those scales tilt that way (if they do at all; I’m not Ms. Cleo) will decide their playoff fate.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Big forwards, and the lack thereof

Like Boston, shooting is probably my biggest concern with OKC. Unlike Boston, however, the Thunder have another glaring weakness: beef.

Isaiah Hartenstein is a big man, and Chet Holmgren is a tall man. But after that, the rest of the core rotation is 6’6” and under. Jalen Williams is their power forward and small-ball center, and he barely hits 6’4” without shoes.

This could matter in the playoffs against the West’s many bigger fours. PJ Washington has given OKC fits not just because of anomalous outside shooting (although that’s part of it) but because he can burrow into the paint for his funky floaters at will. Denver’s Aaron Gordon, Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., and maaaaaybe even the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard (playing again!) all loom as potential playoff foes.

Perhaps Holmgren’s return will allow OKC to play two-big lineups when necessary. Holmgren isn’t the sturdiest defender, but he’s a gamer. He’ll take a blow to the midsection and recover like a Whomping Willow:

The Thunder have a historically great defense; this isn’t an Achilles heel or Death Star exhaust port. But it’s noteworthy that in OKC’s two biggest games (both without Holmgren), they struggled with Cleveland’s bigs (46 combined points for Mobley and Allen) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (26 points, 19 rebounds, 10 assists).

Until we see it, we can’t be sure that the two-big lineup will be a panacea for OKC, so some reinforcements may be in order. They need shooting, but they need some mobile size, too. I’ll be curious to see which (if either) direction they go at the trade deadline.

If Oklahoma City doesn’t win the West (which they’re overwhelming favorites to do), I’d bet my child’s toy cash register coins it’s because they got bullied.

Boston Celtics

Shooting

Shooting? A Celtics’ weakness? Friends, I am here to tell you that I’m at least a little bit concerned about Boston’s ability to put the ball in the basket from 24 feet.