You can't lose if you don't miss

The New York Knicks' incredible hot streak has them two games from a Finals berth

OG Anunoby’s been dealing with a balky hamstring. Karl-Anthony Towns has seen his field goal attempts drop by nearly 30%. Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges have been the subject of benching rumors in these playoffs.

Doesn’t matter. The Knicks might never lose again, because the Knicks don’t miss.

Some fun facts: New York is currently leading the playoff field with a 59.0% effective field goal percentage (which adjusts for the fact that threes are worth an extra point). That number would undoubtedly come down if they play against either of the grasping, nightmarish defenses out West, but still: the highest playoff eFG% ever recorded was Utah’s 58.3%, which they achieved in just one (losing!) playoff series all the way back in 2019-2020.

Many of the Knicks’ rotation players aren’t just shooting better than their regular-season numbers, they’re shooting way better. To wit:

(I’d never noticed before that the PowerPoint defaults are Knicks colors!)

And the Knickerbockers aren’t doing it on a million catch-and-shoots, which is typically the most efficient form of jump-shooting; only 27% of their FGAs are off the catch, the fourth-lowest figure of any playoff team (although they are leading by lacing more than 41% of their catch-and-shoot triples).

So what gives?

The mid-first-round shift to a Towns-hub offensive style that rewarded smart cuts and strong north-south actions (instead of the Brunson-ball-pounding, pick-and-roll-heavy, east-west approach the Knicks used for most of the season) has dramatically altered New York’s shot profile. Their share of shots at the rim has skyrocketed from 31% in the regular season (dead average) to 39% (tops among playoff teams).

Layups and dunks are usually more efficient than jumpers, so it’s had a cascading effect on their shooting percentages — and it doesn’t hurt that the team is splashing 40% of its deep balls, either. Neither Atlanta nor Philadelphia, New York’s first two opponents, are good rim-protecting teams. Coach Mike Brown smartly exploited that weakness, an advantage that has sustained even through two games against Cleveland (a much stouter defensive team in the middle).

The typically contact-averse Mikal Bridges’ cartographical transformation has been particularly pronounced. Remember, Knicks faithful were calling for Bridges’ head for most of the Hawks series, including multiple games where Brown benched him down the stretch (something we saw a few times in the regular season, as well). But he exploded for 24 points on 10-for-12 shooting in the clinching Game 6 blowout and hasn’t looked back since (except to see how much havoc he’s wreaked).

In summary, Bridges has shot a whopping 68% from the field (56-for-82) since the start of that game. A shocking number of his buckets look like this:

No, he’s not Giannis out there. Don’t mistake me. But he isn’t actively running away from the hoop, either, and it’s made a huge difference in his efficacy as a scorer. 37% of his playoff shots have come at the rack, compared to just 24% in the regular season, and his assertiveness has been eye-opening.

Anunoby’s shift inward hasn’t been quite that dramatic, but it’s not far off (48% in the ‘yoffs compared to 39% in the regular season). He is no longer primarily a stationary catch-and-shooter. Now, he gets the ball far more on the move, letting him leverage his cyborg strength and athleticism into real momentum:

Brunson, well, we know what Brunson does. His game hasn’t changed much since I wrote the Book of Brunson two playoffs ago, although it has perhaps clarified with age. But even Captain Clutch’s shot attempts have seen a dramatic relocation (28% at the rim compared to the paltry 16% he had in the regular season).

And Towns, despite a reduced scoring load, has placed greater emphasis on putting his head down and getting to the rim without stiff-arming the defender. He looks so much better when he plays within the rules!

Getting Towns the ball in his spots at the elbow or at the top of the arc allows the players around him to flow to the basket on back-cuts and hand-offs. Everyone (even Brunson! Perhaps especially Brunson) is setting off-ball screens to spring teammates free:

Even as the Knicks have reverted to their more traditional offensive style against Cleveland, there’s been an emphasis on attacking weaker defenders, like James Harden, to get two feet in the paint and make plays from there. This isn’t Catan; there’s no settling. It’s beautiful basketball to watch.

Those four, plus hot-shooting reserves Landry Shamet and Deuce McBride (whose eFG% drop is misleading; he’s still nailing 41% from downtown, he just can’t make a layup), have been melting defenses.

There is one noteworthy outlier. I have a group chat with a couple of Knicks fan buddies which exists solely to praise and/or dump on Josh Hart, depending on the night. Hart is shooting just 30% from deep in the playoffs even after his explosive Game 2 performance Thursday, a stark drop from his 41% accuracy in the regular season. But dropping a playoff-career-high 26 points in a sturdy Knicks win swings the hour hand to six on the clock:

The Knicks can win without Good Josh Hart; Game 1 turned in Gotham’s favor after Hart was sent to the oak for Shamet in the fourth quarter, opening up the space for Brunson to meme Harden to death. (Truthfully, I’ve found Hart’s defensive inconsistencies to be even more maddening than his offense over the years, but that’s a topic for another time.)

But the Knicks are unstoppable with Good Josh Hart. After Game 2, the Knicks are now 9-0 when Hart scores 20 or more points this season. While that’s not exactly revelatory information (most teams will win when their fifth option scores 20 points), it does point to just how dominant they are when he can flip defenses designed to ignore him on their head.

His mental resilience is the standout skill. These are the playoffs; coaches need to know they can play their five best players on a given night without worrying about hurt feelings. Other players, and even previous iterations of Hart, might’ve hung their heads at being benched and seeing the team roar back without them. Hart himself acknowledged how “difficult” watching from the bench is. But he was ready and willing to bounce back.

“I don’t have an ego,” Hart lied after Game 1. Every NBA player has an ego; self-belief is part of what makes a player successful in an insanely competitive job market. But the willingness to deprioritize ego for the good of the squad is a necessity for any role player. Hart’s as good at wearing different hats as anyone, and that includes being a bench cheerleader. He’s developed the fortitude to withstand being told occasionally that the team needs something else right now.

Look, there are myriad reasons for the Knicks’ playoff success. Their defensive improvement at both the team and individual levels has been incredible (their 105.2 playoff defensive rating lags only San Antonio); Towns and Bridges in particular have risen to the occasion on that end (Anunoby can’t rise further). They have not played against particularly fearsome rim protectors. Mike Brown has been masterful, switching offensive identities on the fly and managing rotations to find the hot hand(s) every time. They’ve protected the glass. Aside from Anunoby’s hamstring, they’ve been healthy.

But bucket-getting is still the most important part of basketball math; they say it’s a make-or-miss league for a reason. The Knicks becoming a make-or-make team has been the dominant storyline of the Eastern playoffs. And as much as we want to find logical reasons for New York’s Midas touch, luck is always a part of it. Right now, the Knicks are on a shotmaking run we’ve quite literally never seen. (I don’t want to discount the fortune factor, but there isn’t a lot to say about it. It’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s best to be both.)

The New Yorkers aren’t past the Cavs — who came back from down 2-0 just last round — yet, and the Spurs or Thunder will provide the stiffest possible defensive test. These things can turn with quickness, so maybe the heater burns out soon.

Maybe it doesn’t.