16 unlikely-but-plausible predictions for the 2025-26 NBA season

LeBron James, Brice Sensabaugh, Nikola Jokic, the Hornets, Cooper Flagg, and far more

Welcome to the fourth annual installment of my unlikely-but-plausible predictions (not hot takes), this time for the 2025-26 NBA Season!

This is one of my favorite exercises, and I try to discuss a wide range of players and teams. Obviously, I can’t cover everything, so please leave your own unlikely-but-plausible predictions in the comments!

As a rule, I don’t want to hit on more than a handful of these — if I did, that means I wasn’t bold enough. It’s no fun playing it safe. However, they need to be feasible, because at the end of the year, I’ll go back and check my work to see just how off (or, rarely, on) the mark I was with each prediction. Accountability matters!

Last year, Lindy Waters gave me the worst beat of my life on the last day of the season. We do have fun here.

One more time: I hope to get roughly a quarter of these right, which means most will be wrong! However, they are all intriguing possibilities to think about and highlight the players, teams, and trends I’ll be watching early in the season.

1) Nikola Jokic doesn’t lead the league in on/off splits

Jokic has literally clocked the 100th percentile in on/off rating for each of the last four seasons. Every year, the Nuggets try to fix their bench. And every year, I fall for it. I’m the Arrested Development meme come to life:

But it really, really might work for them this time!

I am certainly not predicting that Jokic, fresh off averaging a triple-double, will be worse (which is one way to decrease on/off splits). Instead, this is a vote of confidence that an infusion of veteran talent (Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway, Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown) and growth from youngsters like Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, and Jalen Pickett will result in non-Jokic units that aren’t the league’s worst.

It seems like such a low bar to clear, doesn’t it?

Ugh. I’m already preparing the postmortem for this bet.

2) Shaedon Sharpe makes the All-Star game

To be honest, I have never been much of a Sharpe believer, but I can’t ignore the hype around him coming out of training camp.

Sharpe is an atom-bomb athlete with a sweet-looking jumper and raw but burgeoning ancillary skills and feel for the game. Defensive limitations (and an inability to translate prettiness into points behind the arc) led to his getting benched last season, but without Anfernee Simons and with Scott Henderson injured to begin the year, Portland’s offense will feature Sharpe heavily.

Sharpe already averaged 18.5 points per game last year, and his efficiency numbers were bolstered by preposterous finishing at the rim, where he made more than 70% of his attempts. Levitation is a useful skill for waiting out would-be shotblockers, and Sharpe is a strong finisher through contact:

Sharpe is also playing for a large rookie extension. I hope he looked around at what happened to score-first wings in this recent restricted free agency period and used that as motivation to improve his playmaking and defensive attention, too. Portland’s financial situation could get dicey quickly; he’ll need to prove he’s worth a large investment.

There is absolutely a world where the Blazers outplay expectations on the back of a dominant defense and Sharpe-first offense. If he comes out averaging 24 points and five assists while playing D, he’ll deserve a look for February activities.

His case may be further bolstered by changes to the NBA’s All-Star game, which will likely feature two eight-man rosters of domestic stars and one international team. Did you know that Shaedon Sharpe was born in London, Ontario? (Does that count as being doubly international?)

While there are an overwhelming number of potential All-Star-caliber international big men (Jokic, Antetokounmpo, Wembanyama, Towns, Embiid, Siakam, Sengun, Sabonis, Porzingis, Markkanen, Gobert, Zubac, Wagner…), there are only a couple of shoo-in guards: SGA and Doncic. There have to be some backcourt players on an eight-man team, right?

After that, Sharpe would have to compete with Jamal Murray (who finally has his best chance to make an All-Star game, but felt too obvious to be included here) and… actually, that’s all I’ve got off the top of my head. (Dennis Schroder is a future Hall of Famer, but I can’t see him making an All-Star game in any universe.) That’s a winnable battle!

3) Boston avoids the play-in

I haven’t been all that high on Boston this summer, but the more I look at the standings, the more I wonder if I’m simply discounting how much mediocrity surrounds them.

Cleveland and New York are the cream of the Eastern crop. I expect Atlanta, Orlando, and Detroit to be three through five in some order, health permitting. But after that, every team has significant flaws.

Miami’s offense is uncertain, even with the addition of Norm Powell. Indiana will be missing its magic without Tyrese Haliburton (and Myles Turner, for that matter); more on them later. Milwaukee’s backcourt has more holes than the Titanic.

Maybe Toronto or Chicago makes a surprising leap, but I have them a tier below. And I’d rather put money on green in roulette than bet on the 76ers (although I dearly hope I’m wrong).

The Celtics lost so many important parts from last season, and they won’t be incentivized to try particularly hard. But I’m optimistic that guys like Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard can absorb a bigger offensive load, at least. If they keep Anfernee Simons, this offense could be rather good! Mazzulla is an excellent coach who should have them competing on defense. And Jayson Tatum just keeps going on and on about wanting to come back this season; that could inspire the team to keep pressing down the gas (even if it shouldn’t).

That said, there isn’t a lot of depth on Boston right now. An injury to Jaylen Brown or Derrick White could sink these hopes, and I can’t imagine the team rushes them back in to chase a low-end playoff or play-in seed. But people seem a bit too low on Boston, and I’m hard-pressed to think they’re gonna tank.

4) Leaguewide offensive rebounding hits 30%

This is a wink to long-time Poetry readers. I’ve been trying to make fetch happen for years, with about as much success as Gretchen. This is my fourth year doing these predictions, and my third time picking offensive rebounding to hit 30%.

Every year, OReb% has crept higher and higher as teams realize that, hey, maybe you don’t have to automatically suck at transition defense if you crash the glass. Combine that with an ever-increasing number of three-pointers (which have a higher likelihood of offensive rebounds than the midrange jumpers they replace) and the resurgence of two-big lineups, and you have a recipe for some good ol’ glass-cleaning.

The league hasn’t hit 30% since 2004-05. Last year was the highest it’s been in decades, at 28.1%. It almost certainly won’t happen this year, but I’ll be damned if I don’t make this prediction the one year it finally does.

5) San Antonio jumps 20 spots, has a top-five defense

There will be some really good defenses next year, bolstered by a surprising paucity of unstoppable offensive attacks (relatively). OKC, Orlando, Houston, and the Clippers should all be excellent. Minnesota, Golden State, Miami, Portland, and Cleveland should be good, too. And there are always a couple of teams that surprise.

Meanwhile, San Antonio was just 25th in defensive rating last year, and you don’t see too many teams with basically the same players make a 20-rank leap. But my optimism is twofold.

First, Victor Wembanyama is the best defender in the league and should hopefully play far more than the 46 games he mustered before deep-vein thrombosis ended his season. That’ll help.

Second, the surrounding cast should be much more capable. De’Aaron Fox is a better defender than the formaldehyde-reeking Chris Paul. Second-year guard Stephon Castle should have improved over the summer, Jeremy Sochan is a versatile defensive tool, and rookie Dylan Harper can fly around wreaking havoc.

Most importantly, Luke Kornet will be there to play big minutes both next to Wembanyama (freeing the alien to roam around as the universe’s gangliest free safety) and in place of him, steadying a defense that was a whopping 9.2 points per 100 possessions worse without Wemby (he’s the defensive version of Jokic!).

The Spurs still have some weaker links to attack, and we’ll see how well coach Mitch Johnson (somewhat of a question mark himself) can get guys like Devin Vassell and Fox to play at their best. And Wembanyama’s health concerns linger over everything; even with Kornet, no Wembanyama means no elite defense. Heck, plain bad shooting luck can sink SA’s defensive hopes through no fault of their own!

Doesn’t matter. I’m not putting a limit on Wembanyama’s powers.

6) Keegan Murray gets four years, $110 million (or AAV equivalent)

Rookie extensions have become difficult to gauge. The urgency to avoid the aprons apparently awakened teams for the first time to the power of restricted free agency, and we saw several players take far less than they wanted (even a proven 3-and-D wing like Quentin Grimes and a flammable scorer like Cam Thomas had to settle for the qualifying offer).

While people keep saying that next summer will have a lot more teams with cap space, I don’t think that’s true. Many of those teams will want to re-sign their own guys, and only two or three might end up having significant spending power.

And yet, the Kings have essentially one (1) promising young player, excluding their rookies this year, and that’s Murray. The three-pointer hasn’t been as consistent as you’d like (37% for his career, but just 34% last season), but he gets them up on solid volume, and it’s hard to find someone around the league who doesn’t think he’s a good shooter. The defense is still his foundational NBA skill.

There’s also the hope that the already-25-year-old Murray has some untapped offensive potential that’s been buried behind an army of mediocre but more proven (and higher-paid) options like De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, etc. What could Murray do with a little elbow room in the studio?

Honestly, we might never know. Sacramento’s constant pursuit of retread scorers with bigger names means that Murray might have to settle for being the fourth or fifth option on good nights — the team has a lot of hungry mouths. Is he okay with that? Is Sacramento? Because with LaVine and Sabonis making $90 million by themselves, paying Murray becomes a little harder if he’s only scoring 12 points per game. (That’s not my thinking; that’s just front-office reality.)

And to be clear, Murray might simply not be that kind of dude on offense. That’s where the Kings not giving him a chance comes back to bite them; paying Murray is more of a gamble than it ever should have been.

But you just can’t let 6’8” two-way wings go. If Murray gets to restricted free agency, he will have suitors even in another depressed market. Last year, Trey Murphy signed for four years and $112 million. Trey is a far more dynamic offensive option, although he comes with durability concerns. Jaden McDaniels signed a few years ago for five years and $131 million; that seems about right, but if I’m Murray, I’d want a three- or four-year deal to 1) ensure I can escape Sacramento if I need to, and 2) hit the market again for another big deal in my late 20s.

I don’t feel great about this prediction, given the crowded roster in Sacramento, changing macroeconomic conditions, and the Kings’ general insanity unpredictability, but I’m giving it a go. If the team finds a trade partner for Zach LaVine (or Sabonis demands out), the finances get a lot easier.

7) Brice Sensabaugh leads the Jazz in scoring*

There is an asterisk here. That asterisk assumes that sharpshooting power forward Lauri Markkanen gets traded, and you know what they say about assumptions.

But if Markkanen does get moved, the Jazz have very few proven scorers on the roster. Rookie Ace Bailey would be the obvious choice as Utah’s highest-pedigreed draft pick. He’ll get plenty of opportunities, and he dropped 25 points in a very impressive first preseason game against the Houston Rockets. Third-year player Keyonte George will be looking for a bounce-back season, and Kyle Filipowski might be the team’s best overall offensive force after Markkanen.

But Sensabaugh’s business is scoring, and last season, business was good. He was a lights-out three-point shooter on decently high volume last season, including lacing more than half of his corner three-point attempts. He also showed some touch on threes off the dribble, a crucial skill for any would-be scorer.

That long-range firepower opened up the soft underbelly of the defense for Sensabaugh’s twitchy floater game, which he occasionally turns mid-jump into a finger-roll:

Sensabaugh rarely gets to the rim and has average athleticism at best. In fact, he doesn’t do a lot of anything besides get difficult buckets, and it’s fair to wonder how much overlap there might be with Bailey’s skillset. Sensabaugh might well come off the bench for most of the year, which would likely render this prediction dead on arrival. But there’s a verve to his game that I enjoy for reasons I can’t quite articulate. On a Utah team that will be desperate for shotmakers, he has a small chance to climb his way to the top of the totem pole.

8) VJ Edgecombe wins the dunk contest

Last year, a rookie (Stephon Castle) won the dunk contest. This year feels like it might be Edgecombe’s turn.

I have no idea if Edgecombe will be invited to the event, much less if he’ll have interest in participating. But young guys are usually more willing to show than established vets, and Edgecombe certainly has the goods. Just watch the first dunk from his ten minute dunking highlight reel:

Edgecombe is an epinephrine shot every time he steps on the court and might be a big reason why I regret ranking the 76ers so low in my League Pass rankings.

9) The Hornets have the worst defense in the league

Coach Charles Lee wants the team to hang their fedoras on defense, but the personnel simply isn’t there. There might only be one plus defender on Charlotte’s entire roster: Josh Green, who had shoulder surgery in the offseason and has no timetable for a return yet. Same with Grant Williams, who at least tries hard but tore his ACL last year.

I have high hopes for third-year forward Brandon Miller, who has shown defensive promise, but injuries and a lack of defensive infrastructure around him mean that he’s behind the curve. The center rotation, the spine of any good defense, is the worst in the league, although I love Moussa Diabate’s desperate scratching for every rebound and loose ball:

The Hornets should be fun to watch, and they’ll score some points. But they’re going to give up so many more.

Brooklyn might give Charlotte a run for their money, but Nic Claxton is far more capable of backboning a defense. Same with Walker Kessler in Utah (although if the Jazz trade Kessler, it’ll add chains to their legs as they drown).

Unless we see another run of injuries like what decimated Philly and New Orleans last year, Charlotte’s only real competition for this spot might be the Washington Wizards. I’m always too high on what’s going on in the DMV, though, and this year is no exception.

Of course, it’s always difficult to pin down who comes in dead last, as there are far too many factors to accurately predict something like this. But if Lee can coach this team to match even last year’s 24th-overall rating, hand him the orange jacket immediately.

10) LeBron James leaves Los Angeles in the postseason, signs with Cleveland

Say what you want about “The Second Decision,” but a lot more people now know how to spell Hennessy correctly!